NBA Handicapping: Evaluating the Golden State Warriors Fast Start
by Trevor Whenham - 12/4/2014
If you were to have bet a month ago that the top four teams in the NBA on Dec. 2 would be Golden State, Memphis, Toronto and Portland then you would be very, very rich right now. The success of each one of those squads is surprising in its own way. Of the four, the Warriors are probably the one most likely to be doing well, though after missing out on Kevin Love and going through a pretty significant coaching change it counts as a major surprise that they are doing as well as they are. Through 17 games they have just two losses, and their 11-6 ATS mark is third-best in the league. So, how are they doing it? And, more importantly for bettors, can they keep doing it. Here are five factors to consider when evaluating this team:
Steph Curry: We are at the point with Steph Curry that it is really tough to overstate how good he is at this point in his career. If you watched him in college you were regularly stunned, but that has been true of many players who have become totally forgettable - or worse - in the NBA. (I hope your ears are burning, Jimmer Fredette). Curry has not only built on what he was, but he has morphed into a totally different, far more complete player. It seemed that his ceiling was outstanding role player. Instead, right now he is the MVP front-runner - and not just because Kevin Durant is out and LeBron James is struggling to work well with others. He runs the court like a pro. He can score in a dozen different ways. His shooting is ridiculous. He and Klay Thompson have incredible chemistry. He is as clutch as a player can be. He's defensively sound - not outstanding, but not a liability despite his offensive tendencies. He works very hard, and he always looks to improve. He's selfless when he needs to be and selfish when that gives his team the best chance. He is, in short, exactly what I would want if I were to draw up my ideal NBAer. Not bad for a short guy from a small school.
Steve Kerr: For a long time I was happy being very skeptical about coaching hires that don't fit the norm. The last two years have really challenged that, though. First, Jason Kidd overcame a ridiculously awful start to his coaching career to turn into a decent coach last year and then a pretty strong one this year despite not having tons to work with. You can question his ethics but not his coaching. Then Kerr comes from the broadcast booth to the bench - a move that seemed destined for disaster - and has way more than lived up to the hype. This team is dramatically better than it was when he took over, and it's not like it is a significantly different team. He has players focused and committed like they never were before. They are doing things that make sense at the times they should be doing them. He can manage a clock - that alone makes him an improvement over the last decade of Golden State coaching. Kerr is a shockingly good coach - and he's still only just figuring things out.
Assists: Assists are far from a perfect stat, so investing too much meaning in them is lazy. When you look at the fact that the Warriors lead the league in assists, though, you have to like it. Atlanta, Boston and Washington are the next three teams. The Hawks and Warriors are overachieving, and the Celtics have enough issues that 100 assists per game might not be enough. Toronto is near the bottom of the league, so you don't necessarily need lots of assists to succeed, but the fact that they are piling up the assists like no other team at this point is another indication that they are playing a kind of style that I like - and a more selfless, team-centered approach that could be more immune to faltering if individuals slip or are injured.
Schedule: While I am obviously more than impressed by this team and what they have done so far - and believe in them as a legitimate contender - you have to exercise at least a little caution around their current 10-game winning streak. Ten wins are 10 wins, but they haven't exactly beaten a murderer's row here. In fact, it is remarkable how bad the opposition has been. Miami is the only team above .500, and at 9-8 they only barely qualify. Beyond that they have taken out Orlando and Charlotte twice each, Brooklyn, the Lakers, Utah, Oklahoma City, and Detroit. Things are going to get tougher going forward - primarily because they can't get any easier. They'll measure up well against stronger opponents. It's just how well that still remains a mystery.
Defense: When you watch this team, one thing stands out above all else - their defense. They are as fun to watch offensively as any team, and we have become conditioned to expect that that will mean that they will be defensively suspect. They aren't, though. They play with a relentless intensity and are strongly committed to their defense. That is a result of what Kerr has brought to the team, and the squad has bought into it absolutely. What I like best of all is that they have stuck to their defense even when the game heats up and the offensive needs are intensified. That's when lesser squads would let things slide. It's a very good sign for this squad - though the qualifier about the weakness of opponents stands here, too
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