NBA Handicapping: Betting Breakdown for Portland Trail Blazers
by Trevor Whenham - 12/12/2014
There is a huge logjam atop the Western Conference in the NBA - seven teams have better than a gaudy .700 record. The Portland Trail Blazers are tied for third in the conference, and they have a huge seven-game lead in the pathetic Northwest Division. It has been a solid start for the Blazers, and they are building on a pretty decent playoff run last year. With so many teams off to a good start, though, it can be tough to evaluate which ones are for real and which are likely to take a step backwards. When trying to determine what the future holds for this team this year, here are seven factors to ponder:
LaMarcus Aldridge: Aldridge is playing like he should - he is Portland's best player. He's owning the boards, scoring reasonably well despite shooting inconsistencies, and leading the way for this team. He was Top 10 in MVP voting last year, and at this point he will be again this year. He's a big asset for this team. If there is a potential issue for Aldridge, it's his contract status. He is scheduled to become a free agent after this season. He says he wants to stay in Portland, but he has no interest in signing an extension - he can only sign for two years now, but he could re-up for five years in July. Any time the team hits any rough patches, Aldridge's status will be a story - and a potential distraction.
Damian Lillard: Let's not spend too much time here because we just don't need to. Lillard is simply one of the most special players in the league. He's an all-round impact player, and his pick and roll action with Aldridge is something to see. He's still getting better, and if he stays healthy this team stays dangerous.
Depth: The top two players on this team are very good. The next two are pretty good. I don't like any of the centers too much, though, and there isn't a backup that gets me consistently excited anywhere. This team struggles to match the depth of some of the other elite teams in the West, and that certainly makes them vulnerable.
Offense: It would typically be tough to argue that a team that ranks 12th in the league in offense with more than 102 points per game has offensive issues. There is something not quite right with this team on offense, though. Last year they were a joy to watch when they had the ball. So far this year they have averaged 4.5 fewer points per game and just aren't as sharp. They aren't flowing and meshing quite like they were before. Their defense is solidly better this year, so that both compensates for the offensive lapses to an extent and accounts for them to an extent - better defense can slow the game down and lead to fewer opportunities to score. There is more to it than that, though, and the team needs to get a handle on things, and recapture their mojo, if they want to be serious contenders.
Coaching: Terry Stotts is an easy coach to like. He is dialed in with this team and manages them well. He's also a strong game manager - as he displayed so many times in the playoffs last year. Of course, the Nate McMillan era was such a freaking mess that anyone could have looked good in contrast. Still, Stotts is a lot better than most.
Schedule: Things do not look nearly as rosy when you look closely at who the team has played so far. They just ended a five-game winning streak, and had a nine-game streak earlier in the year. In those 14 games, though, only one of the teams they beat was a likely playoff team - and the Bulls were playing without Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol that day, and Taj Gibson was injured early in the second half. Meanwhile, they have losses to the Clippers, Grizzlies and Warriors - and an incomprehensible loss to Minnesota last time out. In short, this team has rarely been tested, and hasn't really shone in those tests. This is a clear example of how the standings can be misleading.
Betting performance: The team is 12-9-1 ATS on the season - the sixth-most-profitable team in the league. This is in the same basic realm as they were last year when they wound up at 44-38 ATS. What is different this year, though, is their performance against the total. Last year they were a profitable over team - the "over" was 46-35 on the season. So far this year the reverse is true - they have gone "under" the total 14 times in 22 games.
Read more articles by Trevor Whenham
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