NBA Finals Betting Trends and Game-by-Game Results
by George Monroy - 6/4/2014
The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs are set to meet in the NBA Finals for the second straight year. The series may not be the biggest matchup the 2014 playoffs could have produced-a Heat versus Oklahoma City Thunder finals, with the league's two best players, would have taken that honor-but it certainly is the best possible matchup. Miami, while it may not be as good as last year's team, is still a juggernaut, particularly with LeBron James at the peak of his powers.
The Spurs, on the other hand, are probably the only team in the league with enough talent, discipline and experience to beat Miami. There will no be shortage of Heat versus Spurs analysis and betting tips throughout the NBA Finals, so let's take a different route and look at the results and trends from each Finals game over the last 10 years. The NBA Finals are set to begin on Thursday, June 5, at 6 p.m. EST on ABC.
Game 1
2013: Heat 88, Spurs 92
2012: Thunder 105, Heat 94
2011: Heat 92, Mavs 84
2010: Lakers 102, Celtics 89
2009: Lakers 100, Magic 75
2008: Celtics 98, Lakers 88
2007: Spurs 86, Cavs 76
2006: Mavs 90, Heat 80
2005: Spurs 84, Pistons 69
2004: Lakers 75, Pistons 87
Record: 8-2 -the home team has a solid 80-percent win rate during Game 1s over the last 10 NBA Finals and has been the favorite during every one of those matchups while winning by an average of 12.75. The winner of Game 1 also has gone on to win the entire series six times in the last 10 years, but the Game 1 loser has won the last three NBA Finals.
Game 2
2013: Heat 103, Spurs 84
2012: Thunder 96, Heat 100
2011: Heat 93, Mavs 95
2010: Lakers 94, Celtics 103
2009: Lakers 101, Magic 96
2008: Celtics 108, Lakers 102
2007: Spurs 103, Cavs 92
2006: Mavs 99, Heat 85
2005: Spurs 97, Pistons 76
2004: Lakers 99, Pistons 91
Record: 7-3 -the road team has dominated Game 2 over the last four years and ended up winning three of those matchups. Miami in particular has split each of its last three NBA Finals home games. In general, the home team has done a slightly worse job during Game 2 and has won seven of the last 10 but managed to outscore its opponents by only a total of 69 points as opposed to 86 points during Game 1.
Game 3
2013: Spurs 113, Heat 77
2012: Heat 91, Thunder 85
2011: Mavs 86, Heat 88
2010: Celtics 84, Lakers 91
2009: Magic 108, Lakers 104
2008: Lakers 87, Celtics 81
2007: Cavs 72, Spurs 75
2006: Heat 98, Mavs 96
2005: Pistons 96, Spurs 79
2004: Pistons 88, Lakers 68
Result: 7-3 -the NBA Finals has been split 1-1 heading into Game 3 in each of the last four years and in five of the last 10. The winner of the game has gone on to win the series only twice in the last six years. Last season the Spurs took a 2-1 series lead over the Heat, but Miami has managed to grab 2-1 series leads in twice in the last three years.
Game 4
2013: Spurs 93, Heat 109
2012: Heat 104, Thunder 98
2011: Mavs 86, Heat 83
2010: Celtics 96, Lakers 89
2009: Magic 91, Lakers 99
2008: Lakers 91, Celtics 97
2007: Cavs 82, Spurs 83
2006: Heat 98, Mavs 74
2005: Pistons 102, Spurs 71
2004: Pistons 88, Lakers 80
Results: 6-4 -Game 4 has been one of the situations where the home team enjoyed its smallest advantage over the last 10 years. The 2-3-2 Finals format has probably been the biggest culprit behind the home team dropping four of the last seven NBA Finals games. Winning three straight home games was probably too difficult of a task to ask of any underdog heading into a finals matchup. Luckily, the format was returned to the traditional 2-2-1-1-1 schedule for this year's finals.
Game 5
2013: Spurs 114, Heat 104
2012: Heat 121, Thunder 106
2011: Mavs 112, Heat 103
2010: Celtics 92, Lakers 86
2009: Magic 86, Lakers 99
2008: Lakers 103, Celtics 98
2007: N/A
2006: Heat 101, Mavs 100
2005: Pistons 95, Spurs 96
2004: Pistons 100, Lakers 87
Results: 7-2 -again, the old 2-3-2 format had a huge part to play in the home team's dominance during Game 5's of the finals. This game carried far more importance to the home team and was also a must-win because Games 6 and 7 would have been played on the road. The winner this game has gone on to win the series in five of the last nine NBA Finals matchups.
Game 6
2013: Heat 103, Spurs 100
2012: N/A
2011: Heat 95, Mavericks 105
2010: Lakers 89, Celtic 67
2009: N/A
2008: Celtics 131, Lakers 92
2007: N/A
2006: Mavs 92, Heat 95
2005: Spurs 86, Pistons 95
2004: N/A
Results: 3-3 -the NBA Finals has only ended in six games three times over the last 10 years. The series ending in Game 5 is the most likely outcome over the span and has happened 40 percent of the time. The home team has gone into Game 6 trailing four times in six matchups over the last 10 years and has managed to close out a series during this game only once.
Game 7
2013: Heat 95, Spurs 88
2012: N/A
2011: N/A
2010: Lakers 83, Celtics 79
2009: N/A
2008: N/A
2007: N/A
2006: N/A
2005: Spurs 81, Pistons 74
2004: N/A
Results: 3-0
-winning a road Game 7 in the NBA is a difficult task. In fact it has only happened three times out of 18 tries in NBA history. That's a very low 16
percent. All three Game 7 spreads over the last 10 years opened in the five-point range, so the underdog at least managed to cover one time. From 1951
until 1988 there were 14 Game 7s in the NBA Finals, while there have only been four in the last 25 years.
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