NBA Betting Trends: Hot and Cold Teams Against the Point Spread
by Aaron Smith - 12/16/2014
It's time for the third edition of the NBA Hot and Cold Report here at Doc's Sports. The Golden State Warriors haven't lost a game since the last time we brought this report to you. In fact, the Warriors are on a remarkable 16-game winning streak. The other big news in the NBA in the past week was Kobe Bryant passing Michael Jordan for third on the NBA All-Time Scoring Leaders list. He hasn't passed Jordan on most people's list of best players in NBA history, but Bryant has certainly been a great one. Based on his comments in a recent practice, it's certainly hard for him to watch the Lakers season go down the tubes as it is this year.
Doc's Sports has done an NBA ATS Hot and Cold report in the past, and we will be offering it again this year. We'll highlight the Top 5 hot teams and the Bottom 5 cold teams. This report allows bettors to keep an eye on which teams are streaking and which are slumping. There's no doubt that the NBA is a momentum-driven league. Will these current trends continue, or will they change soon? This report will be offered on a bi-weekly basis throughout the NBA regular season. The statistics listed below are for games played between 12/4 and 12/15.
Top Five Hot Teams
1. Golden State Warriors (5-1 ATS) Who were you expecting to be at the top of the list? I knew this team was going to be really good, but they are even better than I thought they would be. Steve Kerr is doing a tremendous job in his first year as a head coach. The Warriors have been playing defense better than anyone in the NBA, and that is what differentiates them from the majority of the teams in the NBA who like to run. Golden State is able to run and win games with their offense, but they are typically winning with their defense right now. The overall team balance is awesome.
2. Orlando Magic (5-1 ATS) You shouldn't have been surprised by the Warriors, but the Magic being here is likely a surprise. Orlando was actually on this side of the report last time around as well. The fact that this team continues to do so well against the number certainly says a lot about their respect for their head coach. Remember, this is a team that has suffered some key injuries this year. Orlando continues to be a big underdog in many games because of their talent disadvantage, but they have been able to lock it up on the defensive end and become a good bet.
3. New York Knicks (5-2 ATS) The Knicks have only won five games outright so far this year, but they have actually been good to bettors in the past couple weeks. Make no mistake about it; this is not a good team. This appears to be one of those cases where the oddsmakers eventually got a little too low on a team, and that has caused the Knicks to beat the number a few times by default. I'm skeptical of their ability to continue this trend of covering the number.
4. Atlanta Hawks (5-2 ATS) Atlanta has been one of the bigger surprises in the NBA this year. The Hawks have gotten a major boost from the return of Al Horford. Because of his injuries in recent years, many had forgotten how good Horford can be when healthy. The Hawks have been good so far this year, but their next three games will tell us a lot about them. Atlanta plays at Cleveland, at Houston, and finally at Dallas. Can the Hawks keep up with some of the best teams in the league?
5. New Orleans Pelicans (5-2 ATS) New Orleans initially struggled when Eric Gordon went down with an injury, but they have adjusted well recently. You'll often find this happens when a key player goes down with an injury. In the NBA, there are capable backups ready to step in, but it takes a little bit of time for them to get used to their new role. Anthony Davis is having an amazing season so far. Unfortunately for the Pelicans, they happen to play in an absolutely loaded division.
Bottom Five Cold Teams
1. Dallas Mavericks (1-4 ATS) Dallas has had a very light schedule in the last two weeks, but it hasn't helped them much. The Mavericks still have a really efficient offense, but their defense hasn't been very good. The Mavericks are definitely still a contender in the Western Conference, but if they are going to beat the best in the west, they'll need to improve defensively.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers (2-5 ATS) Cleveland is clearly playing better than they were at the beginning of the season, but they aren't playing as good as the oddsmakers seem to believe. The Cavs have been doing enough to win a lot of games lately, but they aren't doing enough to cover big numbers. The oddsmakers have a tough job setting lines on the Cavs, though, because they know they will be a public team, and they have a very high upside.
3. Phoenix Suns (2-5 ATS) The Phoenix Suns have been underperforming of late. Their potent backcourt is a bit dinged up right now, and Phoenix doesn't have a consistent enough scoring presence down low to win in the paint. The Suns were beaten in heartbreaking fashion late Monday night by Milwaukee at home. That loss could either crush the team's morale, or it could help them focus better and not allow teams to hang around. Stay tuned in the next couple weeks.
4. Miami Heat (2-4 ATS) Miami hasn't been playing well of late, and the news from south Florida just keeps getting worse. Chris Bosh is injured now and will miss several weeks with a calf strain. Josh McRoberts has a torn meniscus, so the frontcourt depth of the Miami Heat is gone. Dwyane Wade will have to take over for this team to avoid falling off, but Wade has his own injury concerns. It's not looking good for the Heat.
5. Sacramento Kings (2-4 ATS) Sacramento badly misses DeMarcus Cousins. There's no doubt that this team needs him back in a hurry. Cousins will likely be back later this week, but he'll have a new coach. Color me confused as to the Kings firing Mike Malone. This is a much-improved team that has been playing without its star the last couple weeks. I'm not sure why this was the time for Malone to go. We'll see what happens under interim coach Ty Corbin.
Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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