MLB Totals Betting Trends Report
by Aaron Smith - 4/30/2014
The Major League Baseball season is almost a month old. For the entire league overall, the "over" is 187-174 so far this year. Sometimes we see the "under" outperform early in the season as pitchers have the advantage against hitters, but that hasn't been the case so far this year. Several offenses have been much better than expected early in the season.
Betting on totals can be a wise way to make money when betting on baseball. Following trends can be a profitable strategy over the course of the long baseball season. Doc's Sports is going to keep a close eye on baseball totals trends through the 2014 season. This will be a bi-weekly article designed to help you get an edge on the books. The data in this particular article is for games played between April 15 and April 28.
Top Five Over Teams (Over Listed Then Under)
1. Minnesota Twins (8-2-1) The over is now 18-4-1 in the Twins 23 games so far this year. The Twins are the perfect example of a team that has been much better on offense than anyone expected them to be. Minnesota is averaging 5.52 runs per game. Chris Colabello has 27 RBIs in 23 games. In addition, the Twins have a horrific starting rotation. Minnesota's ace is Ricky Nolasco, and his ERA is 6.67 in 2014. This team is going to give up a lot of runs this year. Will they continue to hit?
2. Tampa Bay Rays (9-3) Tampa Bay has been bitten hard by the injury bug. The Rays are without Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, and Alex Cobb right now. Those are three of their top four starting pitchers, and without them they are really hurting. Tampa Bay has an overall team ERA of 4.24 in 2014. The offense has done enough to keep them in games, but it has been the poor pitching staff that has the Rays off to an 11-15 start.
3. Chicago White Sox (9-4-1) How about Jose Abreu? Expectations were high for him, but no one expected him to knock the cover off the ball the way he has thus far. Abreu has 32 RBIs and 10 home runs. He has 18 RBIs in the team's last nine games. This White Sox offense is stunning everyone (myself included) by leading the majors in runs scored. I'm still dubious as to whether they can keep it up for an entire season.
4. Texas Rangers (8-4-1) The Rangers have been a good under team in the past couple seasons, but the over has been the way to go in the last couple weeks with Texas. Shin Soo-Choo is set to return so this offense will get another big boost. Derek Holland is close to returning as well, so the Rangers pitching staff will get a major boost. Look for the Rangers to bounce back and forth between the two sides of this report.
5. Oakland Athletics (8-5) Oakland is thought of solely for their pitching staff. While the pitching staff is amazing, the offense has been very good this year as well. The Athletics are fifth in the majors in runs scored per game at 4.88 per contest. Oakland has a bunch of patient hitters who make the opposing pitcher work hard to get outs. If the totals get too high on this team, be ready to back the under, because they will still have plenty of low-scoring games.
Top Five Under Teams (Under Listed Then Over)
1. San Diego Padres (10-2-2) Looking for a bad offense? You've found it in San Diego. This team is averaging a dreadful 2.78 runs per game. It's truly amazing that they are only one game under .500 at this point in the season. They must have some good pitching! In fact, San Diego's bullpen ranks first in the majors in ERA thus far in 2014. This team won't hit well this year, but they should hit better than they early in the season.
2. St. Louis Cardinals (10-2-2) Through 27 games the St. Louis Cardinals are just 14-13. The offense has let them down. On paper, this looks like one of the best offenses in the majors, but they are averaging only 3.42 runs per game at this point in the season. I expect that to turn around sooner than later. This offense is too good to be kept down all year long.
3. Atlanta Braves (9-2) The concern for the Atlanta Braves this year was pitching depth because of so many starting pitching injuries. Aaron Harang was signed late in the spring, and all he has done is go 3-1 with a 0.85 ERA through his first five starts. That's one of the main reasons Atlanta is first in the majors in overall team ERA at 2.04. Atlanta still has an elite bullpen as well. So far at least, there aren't any pitching problems here.
4. New York Mets (8-2-2) The Mets pitching staff was supposed to be one of the worst in the majors. They still might be by the end of the year, but they have been very good so far in 2014. Mejia, Wheeler, Niese, and Gee have all been tremendous. The bullpen is still an issue, but they have managed to avoid major blowups thus far. I'm still not sure I trust this team to win low-scoring games consistently.
5. San Francisco Giants (9-3-1)
Here's a classic case of the oddsmakers overreacting to early-season results. The Giants offense isn't very good, but they looked great through the first
couple weeks. The oddmakers shifted San Francisco's totals upward too far, and now the under has been the way to go. This offense is slightly better than
last year, but this is still a team that needs to win low-scoring games the majority of the time.
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