MLB Totals Betting Trends Report
by Aaron Smith - 6/10/2014
We're now a little more than a third of the way through the Major League Baseball regular season. On the whole, the "over" continues to outpace the "under" slightly. The over has cashed in 460 times compared to 437 for the under. Over the course of the season, there are likely to be a bunch of fluctuations in this number. The key is trying to find teams who trending in one direction and cashing in before the books can catch up.
Betting on totals can be a wise way to make money when betting on baseball. Following trends can be a profitable strategy over the course of the long baseball season. Doc's Sports is going to keep a close eye on baseball totals trends through the 2014 season. This will be a bi-weekly article designed to help you get an edge on the books. The data in this particular article is for games played between May 28 and June 9.
Top Five Over Teams (Over Listed Then Under)
1. Milwaukee Brewers (9-2) Milwaukee continues to lead the difficult NL Central. The Cardinals and Reds have underperformed a bit so far this year, but that doesn't take anything away from what the Brewers have been able to do. Ryan Braun is smashing the baseball like usual, and the supporting cast has been terrific. Carlos Gomez has turned into a very good player, and that takes a lot of pressure off Braun. Jonathan Lucroy, Gomez, and Braun are all batting above .300. Milwaukee has hit 65 home runs so far in 2014.
2. Texas Rangers (9-3) The Rangers are second on this list primarily because their pitching staff has been awful of late. Cleveland put up 17 runs on them earlier this week. How bad has the pitching staff been? Texas is second to last in the majors in overall team ERA, and they are dead last in WHIP. An overall team WHIP of 1.48 shows just how badly this group is pitching. You can't let that many runners on base and expect to have success.
3. Chicago Cubs (8-3) The Cubs offense has been miserable for the majority of the season, but they have found some footing of late. Chicago has scored at least five runs in six of their last 10 games overall. Starlin Castro has heated up in a big way, and that has fueled the Cubs recent offensive success. I'm skeptical of the Cubs chances of keeping up their offensive success. This lineup just has too many holes.
4. Los Angeles Angels (8-4) The Angels offense was already putting up nice numbers, and now they are very close to full-strength. Josh Hamilton returned from the disabled list this past week, and he is already contributing in a big way. With three hitters as dangerous as Trout, Pujols, and Hamilton this team is going to score a lot of runs. If these guys stay healthy, keep an eye on this team.
5. Detroit Tigers (7-4-1) Detroit has been in a major slump of late. The Tigers had the best record in baseball a couple weeks ago, but now they are just two games ahead of the surging Cleveland Indians in the AL Central. The pitching staff hasn't done its job of late. Guys like Scherzer and Verlander aren't pitching up to their normal level. Detroit also has the single worst bullpen ERA in all of baseball.
Top Five Under Teams (Under Listed Then Over)
1. Atlanta Braves (8-3) Atlanta's offense has been a big disappointment all year, but the team still sits at first in the NL East. How have they done it? The Braves have received 46 quality starts this year, which is the most in the majors. This is from a rotation that people worried about before the start of the season. Aaron Harang has been great for this team, and Gavin Floyd has been terrific since coming off the disabled list. Expect the Braves to continue to be in a lot of low-scoring, close games.
2. Boston Red Sox (8-3-1) Boston's offense was expected to be one of the best in the majors. They are No. 21 out of 30 teams in team batting average. Boston is averaging just 4.02 runs per game. David Ortiz has heated up in recent days, and I continue to believe this lineup is better than they have shown. Don't be surprised if they go on a big over run at some point in the next few weeks.
3. San Diego Padres (7-3) It has been the same story all year long for the Padres. The starting rotation has been pretty good, and the bullpen has been amazing. On the other hand, the Padres offense is non-existent the majority of the time. This is a team that has been downright hapless offensively. They are dead last in runs scored and team batting average. For a team in the majors to have a team batting average of .218 in June really is ridiculous.
4. Tampa Bay Rays (9-4) Tampa Bay has probably been the biggest disappointment in all of baseball. The Rays are accustomed to winning, but things have snowballed downward on them of late. Tampa Bay has been shut out in four of their last nine games. Let that sink in for a minute. There are several teams that haven't been shut out four times this year, and the Rays have done it four times in the past nine games. No wonder their games are staying under!
5. Toronto Blue Jays (8-4) It's not like the Toronto Blue Jays forgot how to hit over night. Toronto's lineup is extremely dangerous. This is one of those cases where the oddsmakers got a bit ahead of themselves. The lines have been too high on Toronto's games of late, which has allowed the under to be the value side.
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Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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