MLB Totals Betting Trends Report
by Aaron Smith - 5/13/2014
The "over" continues to outperform the "under" on a league-wide basis so far this season in Major League Baseball. To this point, 282 games have finished over the posted total. There have been 256 games finish under the posted total. Poor bullpen pitching has led to a bunch of games going over the posted total in the final innings. Eventually, the oddsmakers will adjust to this.
Betting on totals can be a wise way to make money when betting on baseball. Following trends can be a profitable strategy over the course of the long baseball season. Doc's Sports is going to keep a close eye on baseball totals trends through the 2014 season. This will be a bi-weekly article designed to help you get an edge on the books. The data in this particular article is for games played between April 29 and May 12.
Top Five Over Teams (Over Listed Then Under)
1. Miami Marlins (10-3-1) The primary reason the Marlins are first on this side of the report is their unexpectedly good hitting. Miami ranks eighth in the majors in runs scored and seventh in team batting average. Giancarlo Stanton is off to a blazing fast start the season. The over is 14-6-2 in the Marlins first 22 games at home. Jose Fernandez's injury news has crushed Marlins fans in the last couple days. This team has lots of young talent, but without Fernandez they won't stay in the hunt in the NL East.
2. Toronto Blue Jays (10-4) Toronto's starting rotation has been a slight disappointment, and their bullpen has been an absolute disaster. Toronto's bullpen ranks second to last in the majors with a horrible 4.97 ERA. Luckily for the Blue Jays, the offense is keeping them in most games. Melky Cabrera leads the team in batting average, while Jose Bautista is the team leader with 10 home runs.
3. Milwaukee Brewers (9-3) It surprised me to see the Brewers on this side of the report this time. They have been playing without Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, and even Jean Segura for much of the last couple weeks. Braun is coming back in the lineup this week, while Ramirez is out for a while. Segura has been back for the last few games, but he needs to get his timing back. This lineup has gotten great production from previously unknowns such as Scooter Gennett and Martin Maldonado.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers (9-5) The Dodgers are just 21-19 so far this year, which is definitely worse than most expected them to be at this point in the season. Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu's injuries have hurt this rotation in a big way. Kershaw is back now, and that should help the team immensely. The offense has been good largely because Dee Gordon is hitting .324 and absolutely tearing up the base paths. He's been a tremendous table setter for the Dodger in 2014.
5. New York Yankees (8-4) The Yankees offense disappointed early in the season, but they have been hitting the ball very well of late. New York is now third in the majors in team batting average at .267. They still need to hit better with runners in scoring position. Carlos Beltran's current injury is definitely a concern, and the Yankees need him back sooner rather than later.
Top Five "Under" Teams (Under Listed Then Over)
1. Baltimore Orioles (9-3) Baltimore was previously on a big over run, but it seems the oddsmakers got a bit ahead of themselves with this team. With the higher totals set on their games, the Orioles have been staying under the total a lot in the past couple weeks. Notably, the under is 12-4-1 in the Orioles games at home this year. The over is 11-8 in their 19 road games.
2. San Francisco Giants (9-3-1) San Francisco's bullpen has been lights out all year long. They have a team bullpen ERA of just 2.15. In addition, Tim Hudson's amazing start to his time in San Francisco has really fueled this Giants starting rotation. The lineup hit extremely well early in the year, but the Giants have gone back to winning a bunch of low-scoring games recently.
3. Minnesota Twins (9-4) This is another case of the oddsmakers overadjusting. Minnesota is still 22-13-1 to the over so far this year, but recently their numbers have been set too high. The Twins pitching staff continues to struggle, but their lineup has started to come back to earth after a red-hot start to the season. This offense isn't as good as they looked in the early going.
4. Atlanta Braves (8-4-1) Atlanta's starting rotation has been nothing short of spectacular this year. Despite losing Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlin for the season, the strength of this team has been their rotation. Aaron Harang has been a huge surprise, and Mike Minor and Gavin Floyd looked great in their first starts back from injuries. It doesn't hurt that the Braves have one of the best bullpens in baseball, either.
5. Boston Red Sox (7-3-1)
Boston got off to an ugly start to the season, but they are now back above .500. They can thank their pitching staff for the nice run they have been on the
past couple weeks. Boston's bullpen has been a weakness in the past few years, but they have the seventh-best ERA in baseball this year. Lester, Peavy, and
Lackey have outperformed expectations in the rotation as well.
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Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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