MLB Handicapping: Best Baseball Trends for Profits
by Darin Zank - 5/7/2014
We continue with our tracking of certain factors and trends we feel aid in handicapping baseball games. The information that follows won't guarantee anything in the way of betting profits, but it can play a part in deciding games and ultimately winning or losing betting picks. Here's our report for this week.
The Lefty/Righty Split
The list of the best lineups in baseball so far this season against right-handed pitching again includes the A's and Rockies, who rank near the top in both team OBP and slugging percentage vs. righties and are a combined 28-18 against right-handed starters. The other top teams against righties, at least statistically speaking, include the Marlins (who are 18-15 heading into Wednesday, but somehow only 10-13 against RH starters), the Dodgers (14-11 vs. righties) and the Tigers.
The worst teams against right-handers this year have been the Padres (who have been terrible offensively against everybody), Astros (8-15 vs. righties), Cubs (7-16) and, somewhat surprisingly, the Braves, who have hit a lot of homers this year but are averaging only 3.3 runs per game.
The best teams against lefties this year have been the Tigers (9-1), Rangers, Nationals, Rockies, Yankees and Angels. The Mariners (9-3) and Marlins (8-2) own the better records vs. LH starters, but their internals aren't as good.
And the worst teams against lefties have been the Diamondbacks (1-8), Astros (2-8), Indians (4-8), the Cardinals and Dodgers. Intriguingly, those latter two teams might provide some good fading possibilities considering how often they're favored.
Updated Bullpen Report
In updating our lists of the best and worst bullpens in baseball, we made a few changes; among them, dropping Kansas City from our "best" list, and somewhat reluctantly adding Cleveland.
KC just recently lost five games in a row, in part because its once-solid bullpen gave up 16 ERs in 20 innings on top of allowing several inherited runners to score. Not coincidentally, all five of those games played "over" on the totals.
Cleveland's bullpen ranks eighth with a 3.20 ERA and is 10/13 in save opportunities. But our concern is with closer John Axford, formerly with Milwaukee, who may be 9-of-11 in save conversions but owns three losses, a 4.85 ERA and has given up three homers and 10 walks in 13 innings.
If you play with fire often enough, you're going to get burned.
Besides the Indians, our list of the best bullpens also includes the Padres (1.76 ERA, 11/12 in save opportunities), Giants (1.88 ERA), Nationals (2.15 ERA), A's (2.71 ERA), Pirates (2.80 ERA), Brewers (15/19 save opps, 121/36 K/BB), Braves (11/14 save opps) and Red Sox (9/12 save opps).
Our updated list of the worst bullpens in baseball is comprised of the Astros (5.77 ERA, 17 HR), Tigers (5.24 ERA), Blue Jays (5.13 ERA), Phillies (4.77 ERA), Reds (4.39 ERA, 58/36 K/BB), Rangers (4.26 ERA) and Rockies (4.24 ERA, eight blown saves out of 17 chances).
Fortunately for Cincy, closer Aroldis Chapman could join the club later this week.
So far this season, teams on the "best" list are 44-30 against teams on the "worst" list. Also, games that have matched two teams on the "best" list have leaned toward the "unders" by a 20-10 margin; and games matching two teams on the "worst" list have titled toward the overs by a 19-11 spread.
Bits and Pieces
The Houston Astros were favored for the first time this season Sunday at home against Seattle, with starter Collin McHugh shooting for a third straight quality start. He didn't get it, and Houston, at -110, lost 8-7.
Favorites of -200 or more this season are 15-3. Their last loss came last Friday, when the Mariners, at -205 with King Felix on the mound, lost 5-4 at the Astros.
We've tracked 42 games this season on which the dime line has moved at least 15 cents, one way or the other, from opening until close. Betting against each of those "big" moves has produced 22 winners, resulting in a 3.5-unit profit.
Finally, home dogs are just 53-70 this season, resulting in a 5.5-unit loss.
Doc's Sports
Handicapping Service would like to offer you $60 of member's baseball picks absolutely free - no obligation, no sales people - Free daily MLB picks here.
Most Recent Baseball Handicapping
- 2024 World Series Predictions with Betting Odds and Expert Picks
- Which MLB Team Finishes the Season With the Best Record?
- Hot and Cold MLB Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 8/5/2024
- Hot and Cold MLB Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 7/29/2024
- MLB End of Season Awards Odds Update with Predictions
- Hot and Cold MLB Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 6/18/2024
- MLB MVP and Rookie of the Year Updated Odds and Predictions
- Hot and Cold MLB Betting Teams ATS and Over Under 5/31/2024
- 2024 MLB Cy Young Award Odds and Predictions for AL and NL
- Expert MLB Handicapping Roundup for 5/24/2024