Miguel Cabrera may be the most skilled hitter Major League Baseball has seen in the last decade. The Detroit Tigers’ first baseman nearly became the first player to win back-to-back Triple Crown titles in baseball history last year. He would have done it too if not for a late-season surge by eventual home run champion Chris Davis. Cabrera is again expected to have another stellar year for the Tigers, and he is one of the leading candidates to win 2014 MLB home run crown.

The 30-year-old will be entering this 12th year in the league and seventh with Detroit once the Tigers open up the regular season March 31 against the Kansas City Royals. Let’s take a closer look at the MLB home run leader futures odds with picks, predictions and analysis. All odds come from Sportsbook.ag.

Miguel Cabrera 2014 MLB Home Run Crown Story Lines

The big news for Detroit and Cabrera over the offseason was the Prince Fielder trade to Texas. The move will send the former Triple Crown winner back to first base and make life a little easier on the defensive end. The trade, however, will add some extra pressure on Cabrera to yet again produce a season full of eye-pooping stats. Detroit’s star is still recovering from offseason surgery and may miss a few games during the regular season.

The Tigers are on the short list of teams expected to compete for a World Series title and are favored to win the AL pennant (+400) and AL Central (-250). Lofty expectations, coupled with Cabrera’s groin surgery, might cause the team to take a conservative approach to his recovery. The last thing Detroit needs is to bring Cabrera back too soon and have him re-injure the groin. At this point, the ball club isn’t necessarily worried about the regular season.

Cabrera missed 14 games last year but was still able to match the output from his historic 2012 Triple Crown-winning campaign. Prior to the last two seasons, Cabrera had never hit more than 38 home runs in a year, and as good as he has become those 40-something home run marks might be more of an aberration than a trend. That is not to say that Cabrera does not have the power to send pitches out of the park, but he may simply be focused on producing quality hits and getting on base.

Miguel Cabrera 2014 MLB Home Run Crown Betting Odds and Key Stats

Cabrera is currently the co-favorite, along with Baltimore’s Chris Davis, to win the 2014 home run crown at +700 odds, according to Sportsbook.ag. In 2013 Cabrera had 44 Home runs and 193 hits over 555 at bats during 148 games played.  The first baseman also drove in 137 RBIs and was walked a total of 90 times.

In 2012 Cabrera won the American League’s home run crown with 44 long balls, but he also had 205 hits in 622 at bats during 161 games played. He also drove in 139 RBIs and was walked 68 times.

Miguel Cabrera 2014 MLB Home Run Crown Picks and Predictions

Cabrera is still a young man and entering the prime of his career, so there is no reason to suspect that his numbers might decline in any way. In fact, it would not be surprising to see a slight increase if he can manage to stay healthy. Cabrera will have much more on his plate without the big bat of fielder in the lineup, but any increase in production might come in the form of extra hits and RBIs. Expect Cabrera’s home runs to remain in the mid-40 range, probably around 45 or 46.

The question is will he be 2014 home run king? While there is definitely value wagering on Cabrera at +700, there are quite a few other players that might be chasing the award harder than the first baseman. Cabrera has his eyes set on a World Series title. Taking a wait-and-see approach to his home run odds might be the best play. Maybe Cabrera misses a few games and the odds increase or maybe he gets hot and the oddsmakers do not adjust the number properly.

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Read more articles by George Monroy