Football Odds Weekly Report on Most Significant Line Moves
by Aaron Smith - 10/23/2014
We’re more than halfway through the college football season, and the NFL is nearing its midpoint. The pretenders are starting to be sorted out as we find out which teams are going to be there until the end. The college football slate isn’t as impressive this weekend as it has been in recent weeks, but there are a bunch of great games on the NFL schedule this weekend.
Doc’s Sports will be offering a weekly line moves report this season. This report will cover some of the most notable line moves from the week for both college football and NFL games. The goal of this report will be to not only look at what lines have moved but also investigate possible reasons for that move.
Rotation Number with Current Line and matchup - Original line before move in Parentheses
College Football:
#158 Arkansas -27 vs. UAB (Arkansas -23) Saturday, Oct. 25, Noon ET
This is an interesting scheduling spot for the Razorbacks . Arkansas is coming off losses against Alabama and Georgia. The Razorbacks have certainly played much better than expected this year, but they also play in the toughest division in college football. Arkansas gets a break this week when they host UAB from Conference USA. It appears bettors believe the Razorbacks will take out their frustrations on the Blazers while they have the opportunity, but this is also a potential look-ahead type of situation. Arkansas plays at Mississippi State next weekend.
#129 Central Michigan -5.5 vs. Buffalo (Central Michigan -3) Saturday, Oct. 25, 3:30 p.m. ET
Buffalo fired Jeff Quinn during the middle of the season, and interim coach Alex Cross will coach the Bulls for the first time this weekend. I think the oddsmakers installed Central Michigan as a smaller favorite in this game at least partially because they think there is a chance this Buffalo team will respond to a new coach. That can happen at times, but I’m concerned about the lack of talent on this Bulls roster. The sharp money has come in on Central Michigan this week, and now it looks like the public is piling on. The Chippewas lost at home to Ball State last week, but it was five turnovers that haunted them in that game.
#150 Toledo -17.5 vs. UMass (Toledo -14.5) Saturday, Oct. 25, 2 p.m. ET
There’s lots of line movement in Mid-American Conference games this week. UMass has two wins this year thanks to a much-improved offense with Blake Frohnapfel at the quarterback spot. The Minutemen were backed heavily last week by the sharp money as they won and covered against Eastern Michigan. This week the money is going against UMass. Toledo had a bye week last weekend, so they will be well rested for this one. The Rockets are 18th in the nation in total offense, so covering a large number might not be an issue for them. There should be a lot of offense in this game.
#154 Nebraska -20 vs. Rutgers (Nebraska -17) Saturday, Oct. 25, Noon ET
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights got a major reality check last weekend. Ohio State drummed Rutgers by a final of 56-17, and the game wasn’t even as close as the final score would indicate. Nebraska was busy taking care of business at Northwestern. The Cornhuskers trailed 17-14 at halftime before shutting Northwestern out in the second half and winning 38-17. Ameer Abdullah is going to be a star runner in the NFL very soon. This Cornhuskers rushing attack is among the best in the nation, and their defense is much improved this year as well. The sharp money believes the Scarlet Knights will suffer another large loss, and that makes a lot of sense to me.
NFL:
#267 Baltimore Ravens -1 vs. Cincinnati Bengals (Ravens +2.5) Sunday, Oct. 26, 1 p.m. ET
The Cincinnati Bengals dominated Baltimore on the road in Week 1 this year. The Ravens looked like a team that would struggle to score after that first week. The Bengals looked like the best team in the NFL through three weeks. Needless to say, things have changed in a hurry for both of these teams. Cincinnati limps into this one after being blasted last week in Indianapolis. Their last home game was an unimpressive tie against the Carolina Panthers. Baltimore’s offense is clicking in a big way right now with Joe Flacco playing extremely well. In their last two games, the Ravens have won by 31 and 22 points. A.J. Green is still listed as questionable for the Bengals here, and to say that he is a huge key for this offense is an understatement. Keep an eye on the status of Vontaze Burfict and Leon Hall as well. They are both “questionable” for this game, and the Bengals defense badly needs them.
#278 Dallas Cowboys -10 vs. Washington Redskins (Cowboys -7.5) Monday, Oct. 27, 8:30 p.m. ET
Dallas continues to prove they are the real deal. After their recent wins, it’s hard to label the Cowboys as a pretender at this point. The line move in this game seems to be a perfect storm of sharp money as well as public money backing the favorite. Colt McCoy is the new starter for Washington at quarterback. While McCoy threw a touchdown pass on his first pass last week, I’m not convinced he is the answer for the Redskins. The Cowboys are bound to have a letdown game sometime, but most bettors don’t seem to think it will be this week against Washington.
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