Football Odds Weekly Report on Most Significant Line Moves
by Aaron Smith - 9/26/2014
Week 5 of the college football season and Week 4of the NFL season are here. This is the time of the year where bye weeks start in the NFL, so there aren't quite as many games this weekend. In college football, many teams are starting conference play either this week or next week. It's a pretty good slate of games this weekend, so bettors and fans alike should enjoy this weekend's action.
Doc's Sports will be offering a weekly line moves report this season. This report will cover some of the most notable line moves from the week for both college football and NFL games. The goal of this report will be to not only look at what lines have moved but also investigate possible reasons for that move. Let's take a look at the games.
Rotation Number with Current Line and matchup - Original line before move in Parentheses
College Football:
#116 Michigan -13 vs. Minnesota (Michigan -8) Saturday, Sept. 27, 3:30 p.m. ET
The Michigan Wolverines looked terrible last weekend, but that hasn't stopped bettors from backing them against Minnesota this weekend. The Golden Gophers covered the number last week against San Jose State, but they did it while completing one pass the entire game! Obviously this Golden Gophers team is awfully one-dimensional. Michigan has proven capable of stopping the run with a strong front seven. The Wolverines are also a perfect 6-0 against the spread in the last six meetings between these two teams. Can the Wolverines rebound from their early-season woes? The betting market thinks they will.
#144 Boston College -9.5 vs. Colorado State (Boston College -5) Saturday, Sept. 27, 12:30 p.m. ET
Steve Addazio's Boston College Eagles sent a message when they beat USC at home two weeks ago. Tyler Murphy has been terrific as the team's leading rusher and passer so far this year. The line move is likely partially due to the fact that Boston College seems to be a much better team than most believed. The other reason for this line move is Colorado State's injury problems. Four of the Rams starting five offensive linemen are injured, and two of the backups are hurt as well. Colorado State is likely to have a really difficult time on the offensive front this weekend.
#132 Purdue +9 vs. Iowa (Purdue +12) Saturday, Sept. 27, noon ET
Many of these line moves make sense, but this one doesn't make any sense to me. It has to be sharp bettors backing Purdue, because you know the public isn't going to rush to back the Boilermakers. Iowa's offense is struggling this year, but Purdue's defense has made all opponents offenses look great so far this season. The Hawkeyes are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games. Purdue looks to be the worst Big Ten team by a large margin, but the Boilers did show a lot of fight in their loss to Notre Dame.
#149 UTEP vs. Kansas State Posted Total - 52 (58) Saturday, Sept. 27, noon ET
Sean Kugler is doing a nice job slowing improving this UTEP Miners team. UTEP's program was in a very bad place when Mike Price's tenure ended, and Kugler has had a tough job. The Miners are establishing themselves as a team that slows the game down by running the football and using up the entire play clock. They move at one of the slowest paces of any team in college football. Kansas State is generally in no hurry, either, and the Wildcats are definitely a run-first team. Totals bettors are enamored with the chance to play the "under" with these two running teams. That does make sense, but UTEP's run defense is so bad that Kansas State might be able to put up quite a few points themselves.
NFL:
#253 Green Bay Packers -2 vs. Chicago Bears (Green Bay +1) Sunday, Sept. 28, 1 p.m. ET
This is one of the most interesting games on the NFL slate this weekend. Green Bay has had Chicago's number in recent years, but the Packers haven't played well to start this season. Their loss at Seattle was certainly understandable, but their performance last weekend in Detroit was disappointing. The fact that the Packers passing attack couldn't get going against a terrible Lions secondary was confusing to say the least. Green Bay gets another chance against a Bears secondary that isn't good. Aaron Rodgers has generally had a field day against this Bears secondary over the past few seasons. The Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Bears. Green Bay is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 at Soldier Field.
#268 San Francisco 49ers -5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles (San Francisco -3.5) Sunday, Sept. 28, 4:25 p.m. ET
The Eagles come into this game at 3-0, while the 49ers are 1-2. San Francisco has been one of the biggest disappointments in the league, but bettors believe in Jim Harbaugh's team this weekend. Philadelphia has trailed by double digits in all three of their wins, and that's obviously something that can't continue. In the NFL, you can't spot the other team a significant lead and expect to win on a consistent basis. The 49ers second-half woes are hard to figure out, but they better fix it this weekend because the Eagles have been amazing in the second half. There are plenty of reasons to keep a close eye on this contest.
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