Football Odds Weekly Report on Most Significant Line Moves
by Aaron Smith - 11/21/2014
College football's regular season is down to its final two weeks. Where has the time gone? The picture is become a little bit clearer in the race to be a part of the four-team playoff, but all of the teams that are left in the running have some dangerous games between now and the end of the season. This week's college football slate has quite a few subpar matchups, but next week there are a bunch of elite games.
The NFL has some interesting divisional races shaping up. The AFC North is loaded from top to bottom. The NFC West is probably second as far as strength of the division. The NFC North and NFC East both have two-way ties at the top with two teams at 7-3. Which teams will have staying power, and which will fold down the stretch?
Here are some of the most notable line moves for the week:
Rotation Number with Current Line and matchup - Original line before move in Parentheses
College Football:
#148 Purdue -1 vs. Northwestern (Purdue +3) Saturday, Nov. 22, Noon ET
This is the most interesting line move of the week in my opinion. Northwestern won in overtime last week at Notre Dame. They were a 17-point underdog in that contest. The Wildcats have had a difficult season overall, and that victory last week surprised a bunch of people. They now play the worst team in the Big Ten, and they are an underdog? It really doesn't make any sense, but it's also a line move that you should respect. Do you really think the public is rushing out to place a bet on the Purdue Boilermakers? This is certainly a move driven by sharp money.
#152 East Carolina -19 vs. Tulane (E. Carolina -17) Saturday, Nov. 22, 3:30 p.m. ET
East Carolina is coming off two very frustrating losses. They lost 20-10 to Temple two weeks ago, and that was a game where East Carolina turned the ball over five times. Temple won the game despite having only 135 yards of total offense. Last week's loss to Cincinnati was a wacky game where East Carolina led by a point with 20 seconds left only to lose by eight points. The Pirates were great during the nonconference slate, but the conference schedule has been a big disappointment. Bettors appear to believe this is a good chance for the Pirates to right the ship.
#168 Wyoming +12 vs. Boise State (Wyoming +14) Saturday, Nov. 22, 10:15 p.m. ET
The Boise State Broncos have had their fair share of problems away from home this season. Boise State lost as a 13-point favorite at Air Force earlier this year. They also gave up 46 points against Nevada in a road win and 49 points to New Mexico in a road win. Wyoming is getting the money here, but they are a hard team to back, in my opinion. The Cowboys are without their leading rusher, and this offense has been held to 17 points or less in five of their games already this year.
#204 UCF -28.5 vs. SMU (UCF -25.5) Saturday, Nov. 22, Noon ET
The UCF Knights have been up and down this year. They suffered a stunning loss at UConn a few weeks ago but bounced back with a nice showing last week against Tulsa. SMU comes into this game winless. The Mustangs had their shot to win last week, but blew it late in a 14-13 loss against USF. The sharp money seems to believe that SMU will have a hard time getting up for this game after blowing what might have been their only chance this year to a win a game.
NFL:
#269 St. Louis Rams +4.5 vs. San Diego Chargers (Rams +6) Sunday, Nov. 23, 4:05 p.m. ET
Can the Rams put together a second straight strong effort? It appears some influential bettors believe they can. St. Louis pulled off one of the biggest upsets in the league so far this year when they dominated the Broncos last week. The offense did a good job, but you had to be extremely impressed with the Rams defense in that win. San Diego looked terrific in the first few weeks of the season, but they have had some difficulty in recent weeks. This line move is interesting, because often you'll see lines move against teams who just pulled off a big upset.
#256 New England Patriots -7.5 vs. Detroit Lions (Patriots -6) Sunday, Nov. 23, 1 pm ET
The New England Patriots might have started slow, but they are rolling now. New England has shown the ability to win in any manner, and that is usually the sign of a true contender. The Patriots road win over Indianapolis last weekend was extremely impressive. Detroit has the talent to be a contender, but they don't have the same consistency or offensive balance. This is a line that is on the move because both the sharp money and the public are siding with the Patriots.
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