Football Odds Weekly Report on Most Significant Line Moves
by Aaron Smith - 10/31/2014
Football fans should spend the weekend in front of the television this week. Figure out a different time to do the yard work or errands! The college football slate includes some huge Top 25 showdowns, which mean a ton now that the regular season is entering its final month. In the NFL, there are some marquee games on late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.
Doc's Sports will be offering a weekly line moves report this season. This report will cover some of the most notable line moves from the week for both college football and NFL games. The goal of this report will be to not only look at what lines have moved but also investigate possible reasons for that move.
Rotation Number with Current Line and matchup - Original line before move in Parentheses
College Football:
#356 Middle Tennessee State +3 vs. BYU (MTSU +7) Saturday, Nov. 1, 3:30 p.m. ET
The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders were blasted 37-10 by BYU last year, so in one sense this line move doesn't seem quite right. On the other hand, there are plenty of reasons why this move does make sense. First of all, Taysom Hill isn't in the lineup for BYU, and that clearly makes a big difference. The BYU defense that was elite last year is no better than mediocre this season. MTSU has had two weeks to prepare for this game, and they rarely get to host a big-name school like BYU. The Cougars are coming off an ugly loss to Boise State, and they are making a rare trip toward the East Coast. There's a lot going on in this one, but I do think in all this move is understandable.
#363 Stanford +8 vs. Oregon (Stanford +11) Saturday, Nov. 1, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Stanford Cardinal have beaten the Oregon Ducks two years in a row as a double-digit underdog. The public is actually backing Oregon in a big way here, but the line still continues to drop. That means there is definitely some sharp money on the Cardinal in this one. Stanford doesn't have the same running game to play keep-away against Oregon this year, so I don't like their chances as much as I have in the past couple years. Still, the Cardinal do have the best defense Oregon has faced all season. Marcus Mariota is on a mission in this one though, and the Ducks have tons of pent up frustration from the last two years.
#328 Miami -15 vs. North Carolina (Miami -11) Saturday, Nov. 1, 12:30 p.m. ET
The North Carolina Tar Heels were so terrible early in the year. The Tar Heels were expected to be good, but they laid several eggs early on. It's important to note, though, that the Tar Heels have been playing much better in recent weeks. Their performance at Notre Dame was gutsy, and their win last week at Virginia was impressive. Miami is coming off a record-breaking running performance at Virginia Tech. The underdog is 8-1-1 against the spread in the last 10 meetings between these two, so I'd be uncomfortable laying the points here.
#377 Old Dominion +7 vs. Vanderbilt (Old Dominion +10) Saturday, Nov. 1, 7 p.m. ET
To say that the Vanderbilt Commodores are the laughing stock of the SEC this year would be a major understatement. Vanderbilt struggled to beat Charleston Southern (FCS) 21-20 a few weeks ago. Old Dominion can pile up the points, but they can't stop anyone. The Monarchs lost 66-51 last week against Western Kentucky. It would be tempting to believe that was a basketball game with that kind of score, but it actually was a college football contest. Vanderbilt hasn't shown the ability to score on anyone all year. The public and the sharps appear to both be backing the Monarchs here. A team that just joined the FBS level is getting money against an SEC foe, which just shows you how fast Vanderbilt has fallen.
NFL:
#453 Jacksonville Jaguars +10.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals (Jaguars +13) Sunday, Nov. 2, 1 p.m. ET
The Cincinnati Bengals are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games, but the money is coming in on the road underdog here. Cincinnati did pick up a big win last week over Baltimore, but the Bengals clearly aren't playing even close to as well as they did early in the year. Jacksonville's defense has been a nice surprise, and Blake Bortles is giving the offense some life. Nearly 70 percent of the public money so far is backing the Jaguars. The status of A.J. Green is still a major issue for the Bengals. If he is announced as definitely playing, this line will almost certainly move back up.
#470 Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Posted Total 48 (44) Sunday, Nov. 2, 8:30 p.m. ET
The Pittsburgh Steelers put on an absolute clinic on offense last weekend. The Ravens defense isn't what they once were, but they are definitely better than the Colts defense. Baltimore has picked up the pace on offense, and Joe Flacco is really playing well this year in the team's new system. This isn't the same Ravens vs. Steelers matchup that we saw two or three years ago when it was always low scoring. I think the oddsmakers missed with the opening number of 44, and the market has corrected itself with the move upward.
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