Football Odds Weekly Report on Most Significant Line Moves
by Aaron Smith - 12/5/2014
College football's regular season has ended for almost everyone. It's Championship Week on the college gridiron. The exceptions to this are the Big 12 and AAC, which have scheduled their last few regular season games this weekend to get some extra exposure. With the first college football playoff right around the corner, there are a bunch of teams with a lot on the line this weekend. Will there be any more chaos near the top of the rankings? The four-team playoff will be set Sunday afternoon at 12:45 p.m. ET.
The NFL regular season still has a few weeks left. There are some really good races shaping up in both the AFC and the NFC. Last week's Patriots vs. Packers game didn't disappoint in what might have been a Super Bowl preview. There isn't any one game that is as good as that matchup from last week, but this week's NFL schedule does have some sneaky good games. Expect a lot of games that go down to the wire.
Here are some of the most notable line moves of the week:
Rotation number with current line and matchup- Original line before move in Parentheses
College Football:
#130 Boise State -23 vs. Fresno State (Boise State -19.5) Saturday, Dec. 6, 10 p.m. ET
The Boise State Broncos beat Fresno State 37-27 at home in October this year. The Broncos will host Fresno State for a second time this season, with the Mountain West Championship on the line for this team. Despite the fact that Boise State was unable to cover the first time around, bettors are rushing to back the Broncos in this one. Fresno State is at a severe talent disadvantage here. The West Division that Fresno State won this year was extremely weak. The Bulldogs aren't even close to the same team they were last year. Boise State is 12-2 against the spread in their last 14 games against Fresno State.
#120 Oklahoma -21 vs. Oklahoma State (Oklahoma -17) Saturday, Dec. 6, 3:30 p.m. ET
Oklahoma will be without the services of Trevor Knight this weekend, but that isn't stopping bettors from backing them in a big way for their Bedlam rivalry game. Daxx Garman didn't play in the Cowboys last game, but he is listed as "probable" for this week's game. Why would the Sooners be getting money here even though Knight is out and Garman is in? First, Garman has been playing really poorly of late. He has two touchdowns and seven interceptions in his last four starts. Oklahoma's running game erupted last game, and the Cowboys defense ranks No. 97 in the nation in total defense. The line move might make some sense, but laying 21 points in a rivalry game doesn't interest me.
#112 TCU -34.5 vs. Iowa State (TCU -32) Saturday, Dec. 6, Noon ET
The TCU Horned Frogs thumped Texas last week in a performance that thoroughly impressed a lot of people, including myself. TCU jumped to No. 3 in the rankings this week, and you have to think if they win this game they are going to be a part of the four-team playoff. The Horned Frogs have proven they are capable of beating down bad teams (Texas Tech), and Iowa State is definitely a bad team. TCU has plenty of reasons to be fired up for this game, and Iowa State is almost certainly ready for this season to be over. There is no way I'd want any part of backing the Cyclones here.
NFL:
#165 St. Louis Rams -3 vs. Washington Redskins (Rams -1.5) Sunday, Dec. 7, 1 p.m. ET
To say that the Washington Redskins have serious problems right now is a major understatement. Jay Gruden is having a really rough time in his first year as a head coach. Robert Griffin III is all the talk despite the fact that he isn't likely to see the field here. I've been impressed with this St. Louis team this season. They play in a really tough division, but they are a well-coached team who fights hard on a weekly basis. The public is backing the Rams early in the week here, and I think there is decent chance that this line continues a little higher. Finding a reason to back Washington right now is very difficult.
#180 Green Bay Packers -13 vs. Atlanta Falcons (Packers -11) Monday, Dec. 8, 8:30 p.m. ET
The Green Bay Packers are the hottest team in the NFL right now. They have been dominating teams at home of late, and the Falcons have never been a good road team during the Matt Ryan-and-Mike Smith era. Ryan's efficiency numbers go down quickly whenever he isn't playing in a dome. The Falcons may be tied at the top of the NFC South, but with the way that division is shaping up that isn't much to brag about. Atlanta isn't a good team, and their defense hasn't stopped anyone all year. There's no reason to expect them to slow down Aaron Rodgers and this Packers offense that is firing on all cylinders right now.
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