Football Odds Weekly Report on Most Significant Line Moves
by Aaron Smith - 11/6/2014
We've seen two weeks of the new College Football Playoff Rankings. There has already been a lot of discussion about what is right and what is wrong with the new format and the new rankings system. Keep in mind that there are still several weeks left and there are a bunch of big games. Don't get too worked up about the current rankings because things are definitely going to change a lot between now and the end of the season.
The NFL slate of games this week doesn't stand out as one of the best weeks for high-profile games, but this week's college football schedule is absolutely loaded with high-quality matchups. There are a bunch of really good games in primetime Saturday night. It's one of those weekends where you are going to want to have multiple televisions going at once.
Rotation Number with Current Line and matchup - Original line before move in Parentheses
College Football:
#156 Tulsa -14 vs. SMU (Tulsa -10.5) Saturday, Nov. 8, Noon ET
Tulsa and SMU both enter this game on a seven-game losing streak. Tulsa won their first game of the year before losing seven straight since. SMU hasn't won a game all year. In fact, the Mustangs haven't even been close to winning a game all year. How bad has SMU been? Their closest loss of the year was a 21-point loss to East Carolina. That was the only game so far this year where they have covered the spread. SMU is dead last in the nation in points per game at a ridiculously low seven points per contest. They are also dead last in the nation in giving up 48 points per game. Tulsa hasn't been good, but they've been far better than SMU. I see plenty of reasons for this line move.
#164 Oklahoma -6 vs. Baylor (Oklahoma -4) Saturday, Nov. 8, Noon ET
It may not be the biggest line move of the week, but it's one of the most interesting. Baylor has been a covering machine over the past few seasons. The betting public is backing Baylor in this game. Most sites show more than 60 percent of the action coming in on the Bears. Interestingly, the line has moved up in the face of that number. Oklahoma is now a six-point favorite in this one. These are the kind of line moves that really make me pay attention. The Sooners are clearly being backed by sharp bettors in this spot.
#124 Minnesota -1 vs. Iowa (Minnesota +2.5) Saturday, Nov. 8, Noon ET
This is a matchup of two teams who have been very good at covering the number recently. Iowa is 8-1 against the spread in their last nine road games. Minnesota is 8-2 in their last 10 Big Ten Conference games. This is another spot where the public is backing Iowa, but the line is moving toward the home team instead. Minnesota is in a favorable scheduling spot here thanks to a bye week last weekend. The total in this game is set at only 44 points, so the oddsmakers are expecting a close, low-scoring contest.
#187 Ohio State vs. Michigan State Posted Total 56 (63) Saturday, Nov. 8, 8 p.m. ET
The Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan State Spartans meet in a battle of the top two teams in the Big Ten. Michigan State ruined Ohio State's national title chances last year, and the Buckeyes will be out for revenge here. The Spartans have had two weeks to prepare for this game. The posted total has dropped a full touchdown from the opening number. The forecast for showers and winds of 15 mph or so is likely one of the reasons for this drop. The "over" is 8-1 in the Spartans last nine games. The over is 6-0 in the Buckeyes last six conference games. The big money is coming in against these trends this weekend.
NFL :
#258 New Orleans Saints -5.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers (Saints -3.5) Sunday, Nov. 9, 1 p.m. ET
The Saints were finally able to pick up a big road win last week. They are back to even on the season at 4-4. San Francisco is coming off an embarrassing loss at home against the St. Louis Rams. The 49ers offensive line is really struggling right now, and Colin Kaepernick has lost his confidence. Though they did start out slow, the Saints are still a dangerous team in the NFC. Sean Payton and Drew Brees in the Superdome has been the way to go in the past, and bettors are going that way again this week.
#271 Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers Posted Total 53.5 (52) Sunday, Nov. 9, 8:30 p.m. ET
The Chicago Bears defense has been awful this year. Chicago is giving up 27.8 points per game. The Bears have actually played better on the road most of this year, but their loss at New England two weeks ago was a really ugly one. Did the Bears defense figure anything out during their bye week? It seems like the betting public doesn't think so. The "under" is actually 11-3 in the last 14 meetings between these two teams. Also, don't forget to check the weather for this game as it nears its start time. Currently, there is a chance of a rain/snow mix and a temperature of about 30 degrees. Weather can be a big factor at Lambeau Field.
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