Football Odds Weekly Report on Most Significant Line Moves
by Aaron Smith - 9/5/2014
Last week college football kicked off, and it will be joined by action in the National Football League this weekend. This is the best time of the year for football fans. There's action all over the place on Saturday, Sunday, and even Monday night. Doc's Sports will be offering a weekly line moves report this season. This report will cover some of the most notable line moves from the week for both college football and NFL games. The goal of this report will be to not only look at what lines have moved, but also investigate possible reasons for that move.
Rotation Number with Current Line and matchup - Original line before move in Parentheses
College Football
#322 Toledo +3.5 vs. Missouri (Toledo +6) Saturday, Sept. 6, noon ET
Missouri was great last year, but there are plenty of questions about how good they will be this season. The Tigers return only four starters on each side of the ball. Missouri didn't look particularly sharp in last week's game vs. South Dakota State, and this Toledo team is dangerously good. I expect the Rockets to be the best team in the MAC. A big key here is Toledo's strength in the trenches. Generally when an SEC team meets up with a MAC team, the SEC team dominates in the trenches. However, that isn't going to happen here. The Glass Bowl is a tough place to play, and Missouri is going to have their hands full. The sharp money is on Toledo.
#369 Maryland -14 vs. South Florida (Maryland -10) Saturday, Sept. 6, 3:30 p.m. ET
South Florida's performance in their Week 1 contest against Western Carolina didn't inspire any confidence, and that has scared bettors away. South Florida squeaked out a five-point win despite being favored by nearly four touchdowns. Western Carolina had 27 first downs compared to only 13 for South Florida in that game. Maryland comes in with plenty of weapons on offense. Keep an eye on the Maryland wide receivers, because this group is just about as good as any in the country.
#371 Michigan +3.5 vs. Notre Dame (Michigan +5.5) Saturday, Sept. 6, 7:30 p.m. ET
This is the last scheduled meeting between Michigan and Notre Dame. Both teams looked great in Week 1, but neither was tested. The sharp money appears to be on a Michigan team that comes into this game very hungry. The Wolverines have a bunch of talent, and I think they have a lot more upside than Notre Dame. Brady Hoke is fighting for his job this season, and it seems like the team respects him and wants to fight hard for him. This line opened too large for a contest that appears pretty even, and that has led bettors to back the underdog.
#325 Arkansas State vs. Tennessee over 57.5 (over 51) Saturday, September 6, 12:00 pm ET
Those who know the college football betting landscape well know that the totals market often sees even more line movement than the sides, but a line move of this magnitude is rare in a game involving an SEC team. I suspect that bettors are lining up to bet the "over" in this one largely based on Tennessee's offensive performance against Utah State last week. In addition, Arkansas State looks like a team that wants to keep the tempo moving.
NFL
#325 Kansas City Chiefs -3 vs. Tennessee Titans (Kansas City -5.5) Sunday, Sept. 7, 1:00 p.m. ET
The Kansas City Chiefs started out red hot last year, but the way they finished last season is on the minds of bettors. This appears to be a spot where bettors have drawn a line in the sand and decided to back the underdog when given more than a field goal. This line started at 5.5 a few weeks ago and has now dropped all the way back to a field goal at some books. Keep an eye on this line as the game nears. It will be interesting to see if there is any push back from Chiefs backers looking to place some wagers laying only three.
#483 Carolina Panthers (+2.5) vs. Tampa Bay Bucs (Carolina -2.5) Sunday, Sept. 7, 4:25 p.m. ET
Carolina was a 2.5-point favorite very recently, but initially it was sharp bettors who started backing a Tampa Bay team that most believe will be much improved this year. The line had flattened out around Carolina -1, but the movement came again in a big way when news of Cam Newton's injury surfaced. Newton is now considered questionable for Sunday's game, and the Bucs continue to get more support. At this point, I believe Tampa Bay has turned into a public play based on the injury news.
#490 Detroit Lions (-6) vs. New York Giants (Detroit -4) Monday, Sept. 8, 7:10 p.m. ET
The Lions were a clear favorite here to start with, but as the preseason went along and the Giants continued to look like a mess, bettors decided to pile onto the Lions in this one. There aren't too many game lines in the NFL that are swayed by preseason action, but New York's offensive woes have absolutely changed this line in a big way here. New York's passing game looks to be in real trouble with a weak offensive line and no depth at receiver, and bettors are piling into Detroit.
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