Football Odds Weekly Report on Most Significant Line Moves
by Aaron Smith - 10/16/2014
It was another amazing weekend in college football, and there were some surprises in the NFL as well. Teams in the AP Top 25 went 6-14 against the spread last week, and most of those wins came from games where two ranked teams squared off. Dallas stunned the world with their win in Seattle, and that was the type of win that makes everyone pay attention. We had our first tie in the NFL this year, too, as the Panthers and Bengals played to a 37-37 final.
Doc's Sports will be offering a weekly line moves report this season. This report will cover some of the most notable line moves from the week for both college football and NFL games. The goal of this report will be to not only look at what lines have moved but also investigate possible reasons for that move.
Rotation Number with Current Line and matchup - Original line before move in Parentheses
College Football:
#377 Kansas State +7 vs. Oklahoma (Kansas State +10) Saturday, Oct. 18, Noon ET
Kansas State's Bill Snyder probably gets more out of his team than any other coach in college football. He has had two weeks to prepare for this showdown, while Oklahoma has been fighting tooth and nail with TCU (a loss) and Texas (a hard-fought win). The Sooners offense is getting bogged down lately since Trevor Knight simply isn't playing well enough. Oklahoma is relying heavily on the running game, and Kansas State ranks fourth in the nation at stopping the run. Kansas State's front seven showed how good they are when they bottled up Auburn's tremendous running game earlier this season. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams, so bettors aren't afraid of backing the road team in this one.
#376 Boston College +4.5 vs. Clemson (Boston College +7) Saturday, Oct. 18, 3:30 p.m. ET
Clemson's DeShaun Watson broke his hand in last week's win over Louisville. Cole Stoudt took over early on in that one, and he'll be under center again this week for the Tigers. Clemson failed to score an offensive touchdown last week against Louisville, and it was extremely obvious that this offense is going to miss Watson in a big way. Stoudt is rumored to not be completely healthy himself. Boston College has been better than expected as Steve Addazio has this team believing in his system. The public money is split evenly on this game, but the Eagles have some strong support from the sharps so far this week.
#332 Louisville -17.5 vs. North Carolina State (Louisville -14) Saturday, Oct. 18, 3:30 p.m. ET
Louisville is being bet by both the public and the sharp money. I think there are three key reasons for this line move. The number one reason is NC State announced some significant suspensions earlier this week. Seven Wolfpack players, including three starters, are suspended for this game. What's the reason behind their suspension? Apparently they were involved in some sort of BB Gun incident at an apartment near campus. Secondly, Devante Parker is expected back in the lineup for Louisville, and he is the playmaker the Cardinals have been missing on the outside. Finally, NC State's performances in the last two weeks have been downright awful, so going against the Wolfpack makes plenty of sense here.
#367 Rutgers vs. Ohio State Posted Total 63 (57.5) Saturday, Oct. 18, 3:30 p.m. ET
The Ohio State Buckeyes have scored 50 points or more in three consecutive games. J.T. Barrett has been tremendous at the quarterback position, and the Buckeyes offensive line has improved a great deal. It's important to note that while Ohio State's offense looks great, the Buckeyes still have issues in the secondary. Gary Nova has been throwing it well, and the Scarlet Knights are going to take some deep shots in this one. I think the oddsmakers opened this one too low, and the line move here makes a lot of sense based on the matchups.
NFL:
#457 Cleveland Browns -6 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (Browns -4) Sunday, Oct. 19, 1 p.m. ET
The Cleveland Browns finally got over the hump and defeated their rivals from Pittsburgh last weekend. They didn't just beat the Steelers, rather they totally humiliated them. Cleveland definitely looks better than expected, and the Browns now need to prove they can beat the teams they are supposed to beat. This is the type of game where spot bettors would look for a letdown spot, but that hasn't stopped the money from coming in on the Browns as a road favorite. Jacksonville has looked a little better on offense with Bortles under center, but the Jaguars are a real mess.
#469 Kansas City Chiefs +4 vs. San Diego Chargers (Chiefs +5.5) Sunday, Oct. 19, 4:05 p.m. ET
This is the line move that surprises me the most this week. The Chargers are coming off a subpar performance against Oakland, but they got out of there with a win. Kansas City is coming off a bye week, which I suspect has something to do with the line movement here. The Chiefs have played much better after a disappointing opening weekend loss against the Titans, but the Chargers have looked like one of the best teams in the NFL all year. This is an old rivalry, so these two teams know each other extremely well.
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