Football Odds Weekly Report on Most Significant Line Moves
by Aaron Smith - 10/2/2014
With conference play now started for everyone, the college football slate this weekend is the best of the year so far by a mile. This is the type of weekend where you make sure you don't have things to do on Saturday afternoon/night. Spend the day on the sofa or recliner taking in the games! It might not be the biggest matchups of the year in pro football, but in a league like the NFL there is never a dull weekend. It's a great weekend to be a football fan!
Doc's Sports will be offering a weekly line moves report this season. This report will cover some of the most notable line moves from the week for both college football and NFL games. The goal of this report will be to not only look at what lines have moved but also investigate possible reasons for that move. Let's take a look at the games.
Rotation Number with Current Line and matchup - Original line before move in Parentheses
College Football:
#338 Western Michigan +5.5 vs. Toledo (W. Michigan +10) Saturday, Oct. 4, 7 p.m. ET
The Western Michigan Broncos aren't a very good team, but that hasn't stopped the sharp money from piling into the Broncos this weekend against Toledo. Broncos Freshman Jarvion Franklin does lead the nation with 11 touchdown runs, so the offense has gotten a spark. The Broncos defense has allowed 31.2 points per game, though. I think the line move in this game has more to do with Western Michigan's opponent, Toledo. The Rockets now list star running back Kareem Hunt as "doubtful" for this weekend's game, and Hunt is the team's best offensive weapon. Toledo is allowing 35.6 points per game so far this year. The Rockets allowed 49 and 58 points in their two losses in 2014.
#407 UAB +9 vs. Western Kentucky (UAB +9) Saturday, Oct. 4, 7 p.m. ET
UAB lost at home 34-20 against lowly Florida International last week, so why are they getting so much support in the betting market this week? I suspect the support for UAB comes largely from the fact that UAB's loss last week was a bit misleading. The Blazers defense allowed only nine first downs last week, but it was turnovers that cost the team dearly. FIU had two interception returns for touchdowns. UAB turned the ball over six times in that game, while FIU didn't turn the ball over once. It looks to me like bettors believe UAB is undervalued because of an ugly game last weekend.
#329 Memphis +4 vs. Cincinnati (Memphis +6.5) Saturday, Oct. 4, 7 p.m. ET
The Cincinnati Bearcats went to Ohio Stadium and allowed an NCAA record 45 first downs. Ohio State's offense did whatever they wanted to do in that game. The fact that Cincinnati's defense looked so bad last game is likely the reason for this line move. Memphis has also been a big surprise this year. The Tigers played UCLA very tough earlier this year, and they were competitive until the latter stages of last week's game at Ole Miss. Memphis' leading rusher is out for the season with an injury, so that will hurt the Tigers, but it hasn't stopped the money from coming in on the underdog in this matchup.
#352 Kentucky +3.5 vs. South Carolina (Kentucky +7.5) Saturday, Oct. 4, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Kentucky Wildcats are a much-improved team this year. Kentucky probably should have beaten Florida in Gainesville earlier this year, and the Wildcats already have three wins this year (they had two all of last season). Coach Stoops' team looks very strong on the defensive side of the ball. The opening line of Kentucky +7.5 was a few points off in my opinion, and I agree with this line move. South Carolina isn't as good as they were expected to be, and Kentucky is far from the doormat they used to be. In games like this, grabbing the points with the home underdog is the wise choice more often than not.
NFL:
#462 Dallas Cowboys -6.5 vs. Houston Texans (Dallas -4) Sunday, Oct. 5, 1 p.m. ET
Dallas was 2-1 through their first three games, but bettors weren't buying into what the Cowboys were doing at that point. It appears they are now. The Cowboys dominating victory over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday night made a real difference in the perception of this team. It feels like the Cowboys are taking advantage of the fact that almost no one expected anything of them this year. In the past, it has been that everyone expects too much out of the Cowboys. This year it seems as if the script has been flipped.
#469 Arizona Cardinals vs. Denver Broncos Posted Total 47.5 (49.5) Sunday, Oct. 5, 4:05 p.m. ET
The Cardinals announced this week that Carson Palmer had suffered a setback and was going to see a specialist. Palmer is suffering from an axillary nerve contusion. While no official announcement has been made, it sounds likely that Palmer will miss this weekend's game. The Cardinals defense has been tremendous against the run, and they have ball hawks in the secondary. Denver's defense definitely looks better than they did a year ago. With all these things being true, as well as the fact that Drew Stanton will likely start at quarterback for Arizona, it makes sense that this total has moved down.
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Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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