Football Odds Weekly Report on Most Significant Line Moves
by Aaron Smith - 9/12/2014
The football season is underway across the board, and there's been plenty of action in the opening weeks. The Big Ten has given the national media more reasons to pick on them in college football. The biggest story in the NFL right now is the Ray Rice/NFL controversy. That situation is a total mess, and it has become completely evident that someone isn't telling the truth.
Doc's Sports will be offering a weekly line moves report this season. This report will cover some of the most notable line moves from the week for both college football and NFL games. The goal of this report will be to not only look at what lines have moved but also investigate possible reasons for that move. Let's take a look at the games.
Rotation Number with Current Line and matchup - Original line before move in Parentheses
College Football:
#133 Georgia Southern +17 vs. Georgia Tech (Georgia Southern +22.5) Saturday, Sept. 13, noon ET
The most obvious reason for a line move here is you have a Georgia Southern team that runs the option up against a Georgia Tech team that also runs the option. In games between two teams that run the option, we typically see lower-scoring, tight games because the defenses are accustomed to seeing this kind of attack. One of the biggest reasons a triple option is usually so successful is the unfamiliarity of the defense. Georgia Southern nearly knocked off NC State earlier this year, and they did knock off Florida on the road last year, so they have shown they can compete with the big boys. Georgia Southern is 6-0 against the spread in their last six games overall.
#124 Old Dominion -19 vs. Eastern Michigan (ODU -14) Saturday, Sept. 13, 6:00 p.m. ET
Old Dominion has an NFL prospect at quarterback in Taylor Heinicke. Heinicke is on pace to finish his career in the Top 10 all-time in college football in passing yards. He passed Tajh Boyd and Byron Leftwich on the career passing yards list last week. Eastern Michigan was fortunate to beat Morgan State in Week 1, and the Eagles were beaten 65-0 by Florida last weekend. The Eagles will likely be without three key players this weekend after they were charged with assault. Old Dominion can pile up the points, and there are plenty of reasons to doubt whether Eastern Michigan will be able to keep up. Eastern Michigan is 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.
#184 Texas State +9.5 vs. Navy (Texas State +12.5) Saturday, Sept. 13, 8:00 p.m. ET
The Texas State Bobcats have a veteran coach in Dennis Franchione. Bettors are counting on him to have his defense prepared to stop the Navy triple option attack this Saturday night. One angle that bettors have to like here is that Texas State had last weekend off. Getting an extra week to prepare for a triple option attack is clearly an advantage. Tyler Jones gives Texas State a budding star on the offensive end, and Navy's defense is far from dominant. Jones threw for 284 yards and ran for another 51 in the team's season-opening win two weeks ago.
#204 Arizona -18 vs. Nevada (Arizona -15) Saturday, Sept. 13, 11:00 p.m. ET
The Arizona Wildcats look to have a bright future with star freshmen Nick Wilson and Anu Solomon in the backfield. Rich Rodriguez's team looked great in their opener over UNLV. The Wildcats had a tougher time on the road last week, but they still found a way to win. Nevada picked up a big win at home against Washington State last week, but the Wolf Pack still need to prove they can stop the run. Washington State doesn't even try to run it, but Arizona will run it relentlessly in this contest. I don't see Nevada being able to slow down this Arizona offense.
NFL:
#268 Tampa Bay Bucs -6 vs. St. Louis Rams (Tampa Bay -3.5) Sunday, Sept. 14, 4:05 pm ET
St. Louis was a favorite of the sharp-money players in Week 1, and they came out and laid an egg at home against the Minnesota Vikings. It looks like the people with the big money aren't going to give St. Louis a second chance here. Another big factor in this line moving was the Chris Long injury. Long is the best defensive lineman on the Rams roster, and he was declared out for several weeks on Wednesday. Tampa Bay put in a lackluster performance in Week 1, but that was against a much better Carolina squad.
#257 Dallas Cowboys vs. Tennessee Titans over 49.5 (47.5) Sunday Sept. 14, 1:00 pm ET
Dallas' defense should be one of the worst in the league this year, and the Titans offense was surprisingly good last week in their upset win at Kansas City. The Titans don't have a dominating defense, and Dallas certainly still has plenty of offensive weapons. Jake Locker played one of the best games of his career in that 26-10 victory. Tennessee held onto the ball for almost 38 minutes in that win. The "over" is 4-1 in the Cowboys last five road games. The over is 6-1 in the Titans last seven home games.
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