Football Odds Weekly Report on Most Significant Line Moves
by Aaron Smith - 10/9/2014
What a wild weekend in college football last weekend! Five of the Top 8 went down, and the Top 25 was turned upside down. It will be hard for Week 7 of the NCAA Football schedule to live up to that high level, but there's a tremendous card of games again. No one in the NFL is unbeaten after only five weeks, so that tells you how wide open things look to be there.
Doc's Sports will be offering a weekly line moves report this season. This report will cover some of the most notable line moves from the week for both college football and NFL games. The goal of this report will be to not only look at what lines have moved but also investigate possible reasons for that move. Let's take a look at the games.
Rotation Number with Current Line and matchup - Original line before move in Parentheses
College Football:
#147 TCU +7.5 vs. Baylor (TCU +11) Saturday, Oct. 11, 3:30 p.m. ET
The TCU Horned Frogs have covered the number in each of their five games this year. It looks like the sharp money likes their chances of covering a sixth straight game. TCU was very underrated to start the year, and the much-improved Horned Frogs offense looks far more capable of winning high-scoring battles than they have been in recent years. Doug Meacham's work with Trevone Boykin has been amazing for this team. Baylor has been extremely tough to beat at home though, and bettors will have to be careful in this one. The Bears are 22-4 against the spread in their last 26 home games. Did Baylor keep the playbook vanilla last week against Texas, or is this offense just not as good as last year? We'll find out the answer to that question on Saturday afternoon.
#139 Indiana +3 vs. Iowa (Indiana +6) Saturday, Oct. 11, Noon ET
This is one that makes little sense to me. The only way I can explain this big move toward Indiana is by saying it appears a lot of people are putting stock in the fact that Indiana showed up in a big way at Missouri earlier this year. The Hoosiers have been one of the toughest teams to figure out in the entire country. The offense is high-powered, but the defense is absolutely atrocious. Iowa has been a disappointment so far this year, but the Hawkeyes easy schedule makes them potential contenders in the Big Ten West Division. The public money is backing Iowa so far in this one, so it appears the sharp money loves the Hoosiers.
#134 Miami -17 vs. Cincinnati (Miami -11) Saturday, Oct. 11, Noon ET
The majority of this line move is probably because Gunner Kiel appears doubtful to play in this game. Kiel has been a big upgrade for Cincinnati at quarterback, but he injured his ribs last game and missed the second half. Cincinnati's defense allowed more than 700 yards against Ohio State two weeks ago. They backed that up by allowing 610 yards last week against Memphis. To say this Bearcats defense is weak is a major understatement. Miami is getting support from both the public and the sharp money here, and this number has taken off.
#180 Georgia Southern -24.5 vs. Idaho (GA Southern -20.5) Saturday, Oct. 11, 6 p.m. ET
Georgia Southern is a team that the oddsmakers haven't been able to catch up to this season. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS. They host an Idaho team this weekend that is 0-5 ATS in 2014. What's the biggest reason for this line move? I suspect it involves Idaho's inability to stop the run. The Vandals are giving up 258 yards per game on the ground. Georgia Southern is first in the nation in rushing yards per game at an amazing 379 yards per contest. It looks like an epic mismatch from that standpoint, so the line move here makes sense to me.
NFL:
#250 Denver Broncos -9.5 vs. New York Jets (Broncos -7) Sunday, Oct. 12, 1 p.m. ET
Peyton Manning knows how to pick apart almost every secondary in the NFL. The New York Jets have a tremendous defensive front seven, but their secondary has been awful this season. On offense, it's hard to imagine any NFL team ever having a worse quarterback problem than the Jets have right now. Geno Smith is terrible, and Mike Vick doesn't look like he's any better at this point in his career. If Rex Ryan can't get this team to turn it around soon, he'll be without a job. This matchup looks ugly on paper for the Jets, but I'd be afraid to lay double digits. Some books are already showing this line at 10 points.
#254 Cleveland Browns -2 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Pick) Sunday, Oct. 12, 1 p.m. ET
The Pittsburgh Steelers recent domination of the Cleveland Browns is well documented, but it feels like the tide is slowly changing. The Steelers aren't the same team they were a few years ago, and neither are the Browns. Cleveland needs to quit making a habit out of digging a big hole and needing to come from behind, but the Browns resilience has been impressive. This is still an old rivalry that both teams take very seriously. Based on the body of work so far in 2014, I believe the Browns do deserve to be the slight favorite.
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