Football Odds Weekly Report on Most Significant Line Moves
by Aaron Smith - 12/18/2014
College football's bowl season is here! It's a great time of the year for bettors and football fans alike. It kicks off with five contests this coming Saturday. While there aren't any marquee matchups in the first few days of games, remember that there is still money to be made in these matchups.
The NFL regular season is down to the final two weeks. There are a lot of teams still in the running for a playoff spot. It's hard to believe that the New Orleans Saints sit in first place in the NFC South, but here they are at 6-8 and in first place. Their game against the Falcons will be key to both team's playoff life. The AFC North is the most interesting division to me at this point, because there are three teams who could still win the division. The Bengals, Steelers, and Ravens can ill afford a misstep from here on out.
Here are some of the most notable line moves of the week:
Rotation number with current line and matchup - Original line before move in Parentheses
College Football:
#206 Colorado State +3 vs. Utah (Colorado State +4.5) Saturday, Dec. 20, 3:30 p.m. ET
The Colorado State Rams lost their head coach to the Florida Gators right after the season. They'll be under the leadership of interim head coach Dave Baldwin this weekend. Generally, it's tough to lose a coach like Jim McElwain and not experience some sort of drop off for the bowl game. This is a very interesting line move, because for much of the week the public was backing Utah. However, the line was still dropping. The public numbers have evened out, and this number sits at the key number of three. Kyle Whittingham is 5-2 against in his last seven bowl games as a head coach.
#208 Air Force -1 vs. Western Michigan (Air Force +2) Saturday, Dec. 20, 5:45 p.m. ET
Both of the big bowl line movers for this weekend are Mountain West Conference teams. Interestingly, Air Force upset Colorado State in the last game of the regular season this year. I think this line move has more to do with Western Michigan than it does Air Force, though. The Mid-American Conference has been really bad at covering the number in bowl season the last few years, and this Western Michigan team fell apart in the second half of their key game against Northern Illinois to finish off the regular season. Note the amazing turnaround for both teams from last season to this season!
NFL:
#103 San Diego Chargers +1 vs. San Francisco 49ers (Chargers +3) Saturday, Dec. 20, 8:25 p.m. ET
There hasn't been a whole lot that has gone right for the San Francisco 49ers in the past few weeks. Even after some subpar play early in the season, San Francisco was in good shape to make a late playoff push. However, three straight losses has them out of the hunt. Jim Harbaugh is in the news for the massive offers that Michigan has reportedly made to try to convince him to come back to college. Ray McDonald was also let go this week after lots of off-the-field problems. Distractions like these never help a team, and the line is reflecting those distractions.
#109 Green Bay Packers -12 vs. Tampa Bay Bucs (Packers -10) Sunday, Dec. 21, 1 p.m. ET
Green Bay had been rolling right along, but the Buffalo Bills defense stopped them in their tracks last week. Aaron Rodgers had a tough day, and his receivers did nothing to help him. Bettors aren't expecting a repeat of last week, though. Tampa Bay is 2-12 on the year, and you have to wonder if the Bucs aren't seriously considering tanking the last couple games to try to get the first overall draft pick. It's a very good bounce-back spot for the Packers.
#111 Detroit Lions -8.5 vs. Chicago Bears (Lions -6.5) Sunday, Dec. 21, 1 p.m. ET
Jay Cutler was benched after the Bears latest embarrassing loss at home this past Monday night against the New Orleans Saints. Jimmy Clausen will get the start here for the Bears. There was already some money coming in on the Lions, but Cutler being benched definitely moved the line more in the direction of the road team. It was already a difficult spot for the Bears since they are playing on a short week, but to do it with a guy who hasn't started a game in the NFL in the past four years is particularly difficult. Keep in mind Clausen is also getting the start here against arguably the best defense in the NFL.
#123 New York Giants vs. St. Louis Rams Posted Total 43.5 (45.5) Sunday, Dec. 21, 4:05 p.m. ET
The St. Louis Rams defense has allowed a grand total of 12 points in their last three games. The Rams lost a tough one last week at home to Arizona 12-6, and they shut the Raiders and Redskins out in consecutive weeks before that. The Giants defense has shown signs of improvement in the last couple weeks. Both of these offenses have been extremely inconsistent this year. The 'under' is 5-0 in the Giants last five December games. The under is also 22-5-1 in the Rams last 28 December games. The sharp money is betting heavily on the under in this contest.
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