Five to Follow MLB Betting: Tuesday, April 8, 2014 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/7/2014
By the end of Tuesday night every team in the majors will have played at least one home game (barring rainouts) with Seattle, Atlanta, Philadelphia and San Francisco staging their home openers. Here is a look at five interesting matchups on the schedule.
Diamondbacks at Giants (-151, 7.5)
That Mark Trumbo trade is looking excellent right now for Arizona, although the team has the worst record in the majors at 2-7. It's not Trumbo's fault but instead a lousy pitching staff. Trumbo leads the majors with five home runs and 13 RBIs. He has homered in four straight games. Paul Goldschmidt is also raking, batting .462, but he has just one home run. Arizona has allowed 57 runs in its nine games. It starts righty Trevor Cahill (0-2, 6.30) on Tuesday. He wasn't good in his season debut against the Dodgers in Sydney but was solid last time out against San Francisco on April 2. He allowed two runs and four hits over six innings. Buster Posey is a career .353 hitter off him with a dinger. Angel Pagan is batting .381. Tim Hudson makes his Giants home debut. He pitched opposite Cahill on April 2 and got the win, allowing just three hits and striking out seven over seven innings. Trumbo is 2-for-5 with a homer in his career off Hudson.
Key trends: Arizona is 1-6 in Cahill's past seven road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The "under" is 7-0-1 in the past eight meetings in San Francisco.
Early lean: Hudson the clear choice.
Astros at Blue Jays (-187, 8.5)
Houston already looks much better than it did last season, but the Astros might not have their leading hitter, outfielder Dexter Fowler, for Tuesday's series opener in Toronto. Fowler (.500, one HR), didn't start Monday, the fourth straight game he sat out. He had to be hospitalized over the weekend with viral gastroenteritis, which sounds uncomfortable. Houston had to finish up a series at home with the Angels before flying to Canada on Monday night. Lefty Brett Oberholtzer will start Tuesday. He allowed three runs in 5.2 innings in his debut against the Yankees. He has never faced Toronto. The Jays counter with lefty Mark Buehrle. He was tremendous in his debut, striking out 11 Rays over 8.2 shutout innings. Buehrle isn't really a strikeout pitcher. He was 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA last year against Houston.
Key trends: Toronto is 9-3 in Buehrle's past 12 home starts. The under has hit in eight of Buehrle's past 10 home starts.
Early lean: Jays should romp in this one, so I'd take them on the runline as well.
White Sox at Rockies (-133, 10)
Another team that looks much improved in the early going is the White Sox, especially on the offensive end. They finished with just 598 runs last year, 29th in the majors. They have 34 in splitting their first six games entering Monday. Rookie Jose Abreu has been pretty good -- he's my pick for AL Rookie of the Year -- but is looking for his first home run. The Sox start lefty Jose Quintana on Tuesday at Coors Field. He allowed two earned runs over six innings in a no-decision against the Twins in his first start. He has never faced Colorado. Rockies first baseman Justin Morneau is 5-for-13 in his career off Quintana from his Twins days. Colorado starts lefty Franklin Morales, who allowed three runs and eight hits over 5.1 innings in Miami in his season debut. Only a few White Sox have seen him. The Sox will lose a big bat -- usually Adam Dunn -- with no DH in this game.
Key trends: Chicago is 2-9 in its past 11 interleague road games. The "over" is 6-1 in Morales' past seven starts.
Early lean: Big on the over. Abreu homers in this one.
Angels at Mariners (-113, 7.5)
It's too early to call Seattle a legitimate contender in the AL West, but the Mariners have to be thrilled with their 4-2 start. The pitching staff has been terrific. Lefty James Paxton makes the start Tuesday. The rookie faced the Halos on April 2 and blanked them on two hits over seven innings, striking out nine. Josh Hamilton, who leads the American League with a .500 average, is 0-for-3 with three strikeouts in his career off Paxton. Los Angeles goes with lefty Hector Santiago. He allowed four runs and seven hits over five innings on April 2 against the M's. Robinson Cano is 1-for-7 in his career off Santiago. He leads Seattle with a .391 average.
Key trends: Seattle is 1-6 in its past seven home games against a lefty starter. The over is 10-1 in the Angels' past 11 series openers.
Early lean: Now that L.A. has seen the young Paxton, it should have much more success this time around.
Tigers at Dodgers (+102, 7)
Some people don't like that there's an interleague game every day of the season (barring off days) because of Houston's move to the American League. But how can you not like this early-season matchup between the two World Series favorites? It's a shame that Clayton Kershaw isn't healthy or we might see him face off against Detroit's Max Scherzer on Tuesday in a matchup of last year's Cy Young winners. Scherzer looked dominant in his season debut, blanking Kansas City on four hits while striking out seven over eight innings. One guy Scherzer probably won't have to worry about Tuesday is Yasiel Puig. He had an MRI on his left thumb on Monday and shouldn't land on the DL but likely misses a game or two. Andre Ethier would start in his place. He probably would have been in there against Scherzer regardless as Ethier is 6-for-15 with a homer in his career off him. Dan Haren is scheduled for L.A. He allowed a run on four hits over six innings at San Diego in his Dodgers debut. Haren was 1-0 with a 6.00 ERA last year against Detroit while with Washington. Miguel Cabrera is 4-for-19 with a homer off Haren.
Key trends: Detroit is 0-6 in its past six interleague road games against teams with a winning record. The under is 6-1-1 in Scherzer's past eight road starts.
Early lean: Hard to bet against Scherzer, and you will rarely get him at such a low number (-108).
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Read more articles by Alan Matthews
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