Five to Follow MLB Betting: Thursday April 17, 2014 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 4/16/2014
It has been a terrible past three seasons for Houston Astros fans, but things will get better if their farm system is any indication. And one of the jewels of that system now is likely in the majors for good in George Springer. Here is a look Thursday's Royals-Astros matchup and four other interesting games.
Blue Jays at Twins, Game 1 (+105, 8.5)
A day-night doubleheader in this one after Wednesday's game was postponed. I was one of few who thought that the Blue Jays would be a contender if everything went right this season. After all, things had to be better than last season when the Jays were one of the big flops in MLB. So far so good as the Jays lead the AL East entering Wednesday, and that division looks very winnable with the Red Sox struggling in a big way and Tampa Bay's rotation ravaged by injury. I do wonder if Toronto might be out shopping for a second baseman after losing Macier Izturis earlier this week for likely the rest of the season. The Jays will go with Ryan Goins for now, but if they are contending they should be able to find an upgrade there. Toronto is scheduled to start Dustin McGowan in Thursday's opener. He was once a rising star, but injuries wrecked him. McGowan blanked the Orioles over 6.1 innings last time out for his first win since 2008. Yes, six years. He didn't pitch well in his season debut vs. the Yankees. The Twins start Kyle Gibson (2-0, 1.59), a rare bright spot on that staff. He has held both the Royals and Tribe to one run in his first two starts. He has never faced Toronto.
Key trends: The "over" is 8-1 in Gibson's past nine starts. The Twins are 5-1 in their past six openers of a doubleheader.
Early lean: It's going to be cold again Thursday, but the games should be played. Always lean "under" in cold weather. I lean Twins, too, because Gibson hasn't been seen by the Jays.
Rockies at Padres (-127, 7.5)
I loved the Colorado Rockies' trade of Brett Anderson from Oakland this offseason as it was a low-risk, high-reward deal. Anderson returning to his pre-injury form was really the only chance the Rockies had to contend for a wild-card spot. Alas, he is already on the disabled list with a broken finger suffered on Saturday. He will miss 4-6 weeks. So as usual the Rockies are desperate for pitching and will turn back to Franklin Morales (0-1, 6.39) in Anderson's spot for now. Morales was not good in his first two starts this year and last pitched an inning of scoreless relief on Sunday against the Giants. He's scheduled Thursday in San Diego. Not many Padres have seen him. San Diego starts Ian Kennedy (1-2, 4.24). He has pitched twice this season at pitcher-friendly Petco Park and has been hit hard, allowing seven runs and 13 hits in 11 innings. Kennedy was 0-1 with a 3.18 ERA in three 2013 starts against Colorado. He dominates Rockies star Carlos Gonzalez for some reason. Car-Go is 4-for-29 with 13 strikeouts off him. Troy Tulowitzki has three homers and six RBIs in 25 at-bats off Kennedy.
Key trends: The under is 7-0-1 in San Diego's past eight home games against a lefty starter. The over is 7-1 in Morales' past eight road starts.
Early lean: Padres should tee off on Morales.
Brewers at Pirates (+103, 7)
I really didn't understand what the Pittsburgh Pirates did this offseason in letting A.J. Burnett go and essentially replacing him with Edinson Volquez, who was arguably the worst pitcher in the National League last season. There's also a reason I'm not running an MLB team. So far Volquez (0-0, 1.29) has looked good, while Burnett already has a hernia with the Phillies and could be hampered all year. Volquez faces the Brewers on Thursday, a team he faced in Milwaukee on Saturday. He allowed one earned run over 6.1 innings in that one. Carlos Gomez eats Volquez's lunch, going 6-for-17 with three homers off him. Ryan Braun is 11-for-31 with a homer. The Brewers start ace Yovani Gallardo (2-0, 0.96), who has been fantastic after a down 2013 season. He was opposite Volquez last time out and allowed two runs over six innings. Andrew McCutchen is 13-for-40 with two home runs off Gallardo. Starling Marte 3-for-14 with seven strikeouts. Marte didn't start Wednesday in a planned rest day. He is struggling this season, batting .259 with a whopping 23 strikeouts in 58 at-bats. However, Marte had to enter the game early Wednesday when Jose Tabata crashed into the outfield wall and had to leave.
Key trends: Milwaukee is 6-0 in Gallardo's past six road starts. The under is 6-0 in his past six starts in Pittsburgh. The Pirates are 4-1 in their past five series openers.
Early lean: Gallardo is great value at -113.
Red Sox at White Sox (-107, 7.5)
I'm starting to think that this isn't going to be Boston's year as injuries are really hitting the club in a big way. Already on the disabled list are Shane Victorino and Will Middlebrooks. If you watched Tuesday series opener in Chicago, Mike Napoli gruesomely dislocated his left ring finger while sliding into second base. He avoided any tears or breaks, so he shouldn't go on the DL, but he's going to be iffy for a few days. The Sox also have been without closer Koji Uehara since last Wednesday due to stiffness in the back of his right shoulder. He reportedly will finally be available again Thursday after a good long-toss session Tuesday. This is the pitching matchup of the day in MLB as Boston starts Jon Lester (1-2, 2.57) against the White Sox's Chris Sale (3-0, 2.66), a matchup of two of the best lefties in the game. Paul Konerko will almost surely get the start at DH in this one over Adam Dunn. Konerko is a career .400 hitter off Lester with three home runs. Current Red Sox are hitting just .120 off Sale with only one home run in 25 at-bats. He did not face Boston in 2013.
Key trends: The over is 5-1 in Lester's past six starts vs. the White Sox. The over is 4-0 in Sale's past four home starts. Boston is 8-1 in its past nine road games against lefty starters.
Early lean: Sale should dominate a decimated Boston lineup.
Royals at Astros (-110, 8)
The prospect mentioned above, Springer, was called up from Triple-A on Wednesday and should start every day going forward. Springer had 37 homers and 108 RBIs with 45 stolen bases combined in Double-A and Triple-A last year. He was batting .353 with three homers, nine RBIs and four steals this year in Triple-A. The Houston offense is terrible again, so the Astros might as well give their fans a reason to come to the ballpark. Springer will face veteran Royals lefty Bruce Chen (0-1, 6.30) on Thursday. He was good in his first start of the year but roughed up last time out in Minnesota. Only a few Astros have faced him in their careers. Houston starts Scott Feldman (2-0, 0.44), who comes off the bereavement list after his father died. He has been a huge surprise, allowing just one earned run in 20.2 innings thus far. Alex Gordon is 6-for-18 with three RBIs career off Feldman.
Key trends: The Royals are 1-5 in Chen's past six road starts. The under is 8-2 in Chen's past 10 starts against teams with a losing record.
Early lean: They are the two lowest-scoring teams in the majors entering Wednesday, so how can you not go under? I lean Houston as well with Feldman pitching well in his father's honor.
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Read more articles by Alan Matthews
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