Five to Follow MLB Betting: Friday May 2, 2014 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 5/1/2014
I was high on the Los Angeles Angels winning the AL West this season after Texas and Oakland were hit hard by injuries in the spring. That prediction wasn't looking good for a while, but now the Halos are above .500 for the first time since April 1, 2013, heading into a three-game set Friday at slumping Texas. Here's a look at that and four other interesting matchups on the schedule.
White Sox at Indians (-140, 7.5)
It's easy to say now, but I always thought the Cleveland Indians' late-season surge to the second AL wild-card spot was a fluke last season. The Tribe were a solid team but not that good. This season, the Indians have been a massive disappointment at 11-17 and last in the AL Central. Their run differential of minus-26 is the second-worst in the AL. Cleveland also enters Friday's game on a six-game skid, the longest in the majors. Unfortunately for Tribe backers, they start struggling right-hander Danny Salazar (0-3, 6.04) against the White Sox. He pitched in Chicago on April 10 and took the loss, allowing five runs in 3.2 innings. That was the start he made history with 10 strikeouts in less than four innings. No one had done that in modern history. Lefty John Danks (2-1, 3.48) starts for the Pale Hose. He was opposite Salazar in that game and held Cleveland to three runs over six innings. Jason Kipnis is 6-for-16 with a home run and six RBIs off Danks, but Kipnis is likely heading to the DL with an abdominal injury.
Key trends: Chicago is 1-10 in Danks' past 11 starts against teams with a losing record. The Indians are 2-7 in their past nine against lefty starters. The Sox have lost six straight in Cleveland. The "over" is 5-0 in the past five there.
Early lean: White Sox end the skid in Cleveland.
Rays at Yankees (+131, 8)
How mediocre is the AL East this season? Every team has a negative run differential entering Thursday, the only division in baseball to claim that dubious honor. I think it's perfect that the Rays are starting David Price here, because it wouldn't surprise me if the Yankees come after Price when the Rays make him available this summer. With Tampa Bay last in the AL East, the possibility grows by the day that the Rays get as much as possible for Price. He'd be worth more in July than this winter. New York already lost Ivan Nova for the season and now is without Michael Pineda for a month. Price (3-2, 4.75) faced the Yankees on April 17 in St. Petersburg and was shelled for six runs and 10 hits over five innings. Derek Jeter is a career .302 hitter with two home runs off Price. New York is scheduled to start lefty Vidal Nuno (0-0, 6.59). He pitched at Tampa Bay on April 20 and blanked the Rays over five innings, easily his best outing.
Key trends: The Rays are 5-1 in Price's past six series openers. New York is 4-1 in its past five against a lefty. The over is 4-0 in Price's past four at the Yankees.
Early lean: Great value on the Yankees here because the Rays had to play a day-night doubleheader in Boston on Thursday and likely will blow out their bullpen.
Giants at Braves (-135, 7.5)
Atlanta really could take off in the NL East, and it is the -137 favorite at Sportsbook.ag. The Nationals just lost Bryce Harper until July, and now the Braves welcome lefty Mike Minor off the disabled list to start Friday's series opener. Atlanta already leads the majors with a 2.59 ERA entering Thursday. Minor will push David Hale to the bullpen. Minor was 13-9 with a 3.21 ERA last season. He made one start against San Francisco, allowing five runs and seven hits in six innings of a no-decision. Buster Posey is 4-for-8 with two doubles off Minor in his career. The Giants start Tim Lincecum (1-1, 5.96). He has failed to pitch more than five innings in three of his five starts. He was 1-1 with a 1.38 ERA last year vs. the Braves. Justin Upton hits just .224 with 17 strikeouts and no home runs in 49 at-bats off Lincecum.
Key trends: The Giants are 4-0 in their past four after an off day. They are 5-1 in Lincecum's past six road starts. Atlanta is 9-0 in Minor's past nine against the NL West. The "under" is 8-0-1 in the Giants' past nine against lefties. The under is 5-0 in Lincecum's past five in Atlanta.
Early lean: It's not clear how long Minor can go, so I prefer the under to a side.
Mariners at Astros (+177, 7.5)
We made it through the first month of the season without a no-hitter, and I'd never be silly enough to predict one. Yet I think it's fair to say it wouldn't surprise anyone if Felix Hernandez does it to Houston in Friday's series opener. Hernandez was supposed to start Thursday at the Yankees, but when Wednesday's game was rained out the Mariners opted to push King Felix back a day for some extra rest and use Wednesday's scheduled starter, Roenis Elias, on Thursday. I'm sure the Yankees are thrilled and the Astros not so much. Houston is the worst offensive team in baseball, and last year Hernandez was 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two starts vs. the Astros. He struck out 16 and allowed only nine hits in 12 innings. So, yeah, a no-hitter is in play. Brad Peacock (0-2, 5.95) starts for Houston. He was 2-2 with a 7.20 ERA in four 2013 starts against Seattle. The Astros are by far the biggest dogs on the board.
Key trends: The Mariners are 5-1 in Hernandez's past six road starts against teams with a losing record. Houston is 1-7 in its past eight series openers. The Mariners are 6-1 in their past seven in Houston.
Early lean: I doubt Houston scores, and the M's don't exactly light up the scoreboard, so jump on the under at -125 and the M's on the runline at -115.
Rangers at Angels (-134, 9)
Texas was just swept three games at home by Oakland and enters Friday's series opener having lost four straight and five of six. When Texas loses, it's usually big. The Rangers are two games above .500 yet have a run differential of minus-21. By comparison, the Angels (14-13), who have won three straight, are at plus-40. Colby Lewis (1-1, 4.60) takes the mound for Texas. He hasn't faced the Angels since 2012 (Lewis didn't pitch in the majors last season). Howie Kendrick struggles against him, going 4-for-20 with seven strikeouts. Albert Pujols has just two at-bats against Lewis. L.A. starts lefty Hector Santiago (0-4, 4.44). The Halos have gone on to lose all five of his starts, although he hasn't pitched all that badly. Santiago was 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA in two starts last year against Texas while with the White Sox. Prince Fielder is struggling in a big way for the Rangers, batting .206 with two home runs. Maybe Santiago wakes him up as Fielder is 5-for-12 career off the lefty.
Key trends: Texas is 1-6 in its past seven after an off day. The Angels are 6-1 in their past seven against a righty starter. They have won four straight series openers. The over is 10-2 in L.A.'s past 12 at home.
Early lean:
Teams going in opposite directions -- take L.A.
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