Five to Follow MLB Betting: Friday June 6, 2014 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews - 6/5/2014
There is obviously a long way to go in the 2014 baseball season, but might we be seeing a year with barely a division race worth watching? Sure, the wild cards have taken some of the drama out of winning the division, but entering Thursday only one second-place team was within three games of first. The Detroit Tigers remain the biggest division favorites at -800 on Bovada. Here's a look at five interesting matchups on Friday's schedule.
Brewers at Pirates (-106, 7.5)
Depending on whom you believe, the Pirates will call up their top position player prospect in the minors, outfielder Gregory Polanco, for Friday's game. The guy looks like a future stud, hitting .351 with six home runs and 14 steals in Triple-A, and he would immediately upgrade that Pittsburgh lineup. A few media reports said it would happen, but then Pittsburgh denied it. We will see. The Pirates face a surprise Cy Young candidate in Milwaukee's Kyle Lohse (7-1, 2.60). He has faced Pittsburgh twice this season, allowing two earned runs and eight hits over 15 innings. It's Brandon Cumpton (0-2, 6.85) for Pittsburgh. He had been pretty good his first three starts but then was destroyed for 11 runs over 3.2 innings last time out against the Dodgers. He has never faced the Brewers.
Key trends: The Brewers are 6-1 in Lohse's past seven road starts. Milwaukee has won nine of its past 11 series openers. The Brewers are 4-1 in their past five in Pittsburgh.
Early lean: Lohse has been terrific and still is a slight dog. Go there.
Dodgers at Rockies (+116, 10.5)
The Rockies are in a free-fall, having lost six straight, and they can't even win at home now. Their pitching is a mess, and they lost Jordan Lyles to a broken (non-pitching) hand on Wednesday. Whether Colorado makes a trade for an arm could depend on how highly-touted prospect Eddie Butler fares in his debut Friday. He was 4-4 with a 2.49 ERA in Triple-A this season. Hyun-Jin Ryu (6-2, 3.05) starts for L.A. He has had three straight quality starts since allowing six runs over five innings against the Rockies on April 27. Ryu won't have to deal with Carlos Gonzalez, who was officially placed on the DL on Wednesday.
Key trends: The Dodgers are 4-0 in Ryu's past four road starts against teams with a losing record. Colorado has won five of its past six at home against lefties. L.A. is 1-4 in the past five meetings.
Early lean: Rockies are the biggest home dogs on the board, which you don't see often. Take them as the Dodgers have no book on Butler.
Mariners at Rays (-136, 8)
Could the Mariners actually be a threat in the AL West? I doubt that unless they add a bat, but they have won five straight games and have a plus-25 run differential, which generally means they are for real. Chris Young (5-2, 3.27) gets the call in Friday's series opener in St. Petersburg. The Mariners have won his past two starts. Young has been excellent at home, going 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA. He hasn't faced Tampa Bay this season. The Rays are done, having lost nine straight and with the worst record in baseball. They throw out former Mariner Erik Bedard (2-4, 4.08). Tampa has lost his past four starts, and he hasn't lasted five innings in the past two.
Key trends: Seattle is 8-1 in its past nine following an off day. The Rays are 1-8 in their past nine series openers. The "over" is 7-0-2 in Seattle's past nine Friday games.
Early lean: A team on a five-game winning streak as a dog against one on a nine-game skid? Yes please.
Indians at Rangers (-166, 8.5)
The team with the longest winning streak in baseball entering Thursday? The Cleveland Indians, who had been a major disappointment before this six-game streak got the Tribe back to .500. Trevor Bauer takes the bump for Cleveland. Bauer (1-2, 3.63) threw well last time out, holding the Rockies to two runs over six innings and matching his season high with eight strikeouts. He has never faced Texas. The Rangers go with ace Yu Darvish (5-2, 2.08), one of the only bright spots on the injury-ravaged team. Darvish is 4-1 with a 1.67 ERA in his last five starts. He has made two career starts against Cleveland and lost them both.
Key trends: Cleveland has won five straight in the series. The "under" is 7-1 in the past eight meetings.
Early lean: The under at -115.
Braves at Diamondbacks (+108, 8)
When talking about the best young pitchers in the National League, you have to start with Miami's Jose Fernandez, but he's now out for the year following Tommy John surgery, and you still never know about that. I'd argue that in his place, the best pitcher 23 or younger in the NL in Atlanta's Julio Teheran (5-3, 1.83). He has made 11 starts this season, and they have all been quality starts, the most in the majors. Teheran has won his past three, allowing just two earned runs over 22.1 innings. Arizona slugger Paul Goldschmidt is 0-for-6 career off Teheran with three strikeouts. Arizona starts Brandon McCarthy (1-7, 5.20). He has allowed five earned runs and nine hits exactly in each of his past two starts.
Key trends: Atlanta is 0-7 in its past seven road games against teams with a losing record. Arizona is 1-10 in McCarthy's past 11 against teams with a winning record. The under is 9-1 in Teheran's past 10 series openers.
Early lean:
Go Braves at +140 on the runline. Teheran is that good.
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