College Football Betting Trends that Emerged in Week 3
by George Monroy - 9/15/2014
The third week of the college football season reminded fans about the greatest aspect of sports-upsets. Those surprise losses, particularly in college football, can ruin a team's entire season and bump a squad from the national title race. However, it's not until the top ranked schools start losing that the season truly gets interesting. Did I mention that No. 9 USC lost to unranked Boston College?
Week 3 featured two huge losses in the Top 10 to go along with another set of dominant victories for No. 2 and No. 3 Oregon and Alabama. The biggest game of the week was an SEC matchup between No. 6 Georgia and No. 24 South Carolina that left Alabama and Auburn as the major undefeated teams left in the conference. Let's take a closer look at the trends that emerged from the third week of college football action.
Top 10 Struggles Against Spread
Eight of the Top 10 schools in the nation played during Week 3, and they all struggled to cover a spread. The group only had one team actually cover and as a whole produced a 1-6-1 ATS record. LSU may have covered the spread as some sportsbooks had its line set at 30.5, but most bettors either lost or pushed on that game.
There were also two huge upsets as both No. 6 Georgia and No. 9 USC were both handed losses on the road. Georgia struggled from the beginning against South Carolina, while USC gave up an early 17-6 lead. Overall the Top 5 has produced a 5-8 ATS record over the first three weeks of action, while the Top 10 has not faired much better, producing a 11-13-1 ATS mark.
No. 1 Florida State : Did not play
No. 2 Oregon : favored by 42, won by 34
No. 3 Alabama : favored by 47, won by 40
No. 4 Oklahoma : favored by 28, won by 24
No. 5: Auburn : Did not play
Large favorites finally struggle
Heading into the third week of college action, 30-point-or-more favorites had covered at an excellent rate. The large favorites produced a 6-3 record over the first two weeks and had a whopping seven lines for Week 3. Alabama had the distinction of facing the largest line of the week with a 47-point spread against Southern Miss.
Unfortunately, the great start that large favorites had enjoyed did not extended into the weekend as the teams covered only two of seven spreads and produced a 2-4-1 ATS mark. Baylor and Ohio State were the only two teams to beat their large spreads, while LSU pushed on its 31-pont line. Overall large favorites are now 8-7-1 ATS.
Michigan : favored by 30.5, won by 24
No.22 Ohio State : favored by 32, won by 66
No. 2 Oregon : favored by 42, won by 34
No. 3 Alabama : favored by 47, won by 40
No. 10 LSU : favored by 31, won by 31
No 7 Texas A&M : favored by 31, won by 28
The new Top 10
The AP Top 10 rankings will have two new additions in Notre Dame (No. 9) and Old Miss (No. 10). Heading into Week 4, nine of the Top 25 teams have already suffered a loss, but four of the preseason Top 5 teams remain intact. Only Ohio State has been bumped from the top of the rankings, where it sat at No. 5 before the year began.
Records: Top 5: 5-8 ATS; Top 10: 11-13-1 ATS; Large Favorites: 8-7-1 ATS
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Read more articles by George Monroy
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