College Basketball Handicapping: NCAA Teams Overrated and Underrated By Conference
by Trevor Whenham - 11/24/2014
One of the biggest challenges of betting on college basketball is that there are such a massive number of teams to follow and handicap. That also provides the biggest opportunity for smart bettors, too. So much of what public bettors base their decisions on is perception - the hype and coverage surrounding teams, players and coaches - or the lack thereof. An overhyped team can be short of the value needed to be a sound bet, while underrated teams can deliver really pleasant value. Here's a look at the most overrated and underrated team in each significant conference:
American
Overrated: SMU. I feel like a bully picking on a weakling here. SMU was a hyped team coming into the season, and they could still have success, but they aren't the team some hoped - at least not yet. They have lost at Indiana and were blown out by Gonzaga. They have a couple more chances to make a statement in nonconference play, but so far this has not been ideal.
Underrated: Tulsa. Frank Haith is a good coach, and this team is in better hands than they were under Danny Manning. They have an excellent player in James Woodard and some nice and experienced pieces behind him. This team won't win the conference, but they are better than people think.
ACC
Overrated: UNC. If the Tar Heels didn't have their brand name behind them they would not be as hyped as they are. They also have their massive academic scandal hanging over them - and the implications of that could be dramatic.
Underrated: FSU. This team has plenty of talent, with Devon Bookert getting the attention and Aaron Thomas perhaps being even better. They also have ridiculous length and athleticism. This is a brutal matchup for a lot of teams, and that will pay off for them.
Atlantic 10
Overrated: VCU. The Rams fit here by default. They are the overwhelming choice to win this conference. Almost no one of note has picked against them. They are highly-ranked and have big expectations. Given that, and their success in recent years, it would be very easy for bettors to overhype and overrate them.
Underrated: Rhode Island. I might be too optimistic about this team, but I really like them. E.C. Matthews is going to play in the NBA. He's only a sophomore, but he's very impressive. He can't do it alone, but if the players around him can take a step forward like he surely will then things could go well.
Big 12
Overrated: Texas. I just don't trust Rick Barnes right now. He has a lot of talent to work with, but I don't have faith that he can keep it on track and maximize the potential. They are a very deep team, but Barnes may not be the guy to manage that depth and keep his players happy.
Underrated: Oklahoma. I really respect Lon Kruger as a head coach. Jordan Woodard has the game to emerge as one of the top guards in the league this year as a sophomore. TaShawn Thomas is an excellent addition, and the team is fortunate that the Houston transfer is eligible. This team has some very nice pieces.
Big East
Overrated: Georgetown. This team is picked to finish second in the conference, but I just can't buy into that entirely. John Thompson III is not a coach who thrills me, and this team was just 8-10 in the conference last year. They have some nice pieces, but unlocking their potential is no slam dunk.
Underrated: Creighton. The assumption here is that this team is going to go nowhere now that Doug McDermott is with the Bulls. He's obviously a massive loss, but it's not a fatal one here. They are very well-coached, and they still have four seniors to do the heavy lifting. This team will be quietly solid.
Big Ten
Overrated: Michigan State. This team was manhandled by Duke, but I was a pessimist before that ever happened. I question their depth, their top-end talent, and their heart. As often happens, this team is given far too much credit because Tom Izzo is always strong and tough. It won't be a disaster of a year, but it will not be nearly as good as some think.
Underrated: Michigan. This is a very young team, and the frontcourt is raw and, at this time, concerning. They have a three-person backcourt of Walton, LeVert and Irvin, though, that can contend with any in the country. If they can find a rotation up front that works for them then they can make some real noise. They certainly have a track record of recent success - and they have done it with rosters that looked to have issues with inexperience heading into the season.
Pac-12
Overrated: Arizona. This is another team that lands here by default. They are perceived to be by far the best team in a conference that isn't that strong. They are much better than the rest, but that can be dangerous because bettors can get too excited and give them too much credit.
Underrated: Utah. Get to know the name Delon Wright. He is just an outstanding all-round player, and by the time March rolls around he is going to be a star. The depth here isn't all it could be, but if Wright has big enough shoulders he could carry this team a long way - or at least further than most people think they will go.
SEC
Overrated: Kentucky. To be clear, I obviously think Kentucky is exceptional - the best team in the country by a wide margin. They are included here for two reasons. First, and most significantly, there is no one else in the conference worth including. Second, the hype is already out of control, and after another few wins people will be saying that this team can win the NBA championship.
Underrated: Arkansas. There were a lot of guys who went to the NBA last year who weren't as good as Bobby Portis, yet he decided to stick around. He could make some real noise this year. Add in some strong coaching and decent depth, and you have a team that could - anonymously under the massive shadow of the Wildcats - make some noise.
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