College Basketball Futures Odds: Looking for a Winner from Average of Recent Champs
by Ivey Walters - 11/27/2014
With Kentucky looking absolutely unbeatable thus far, including a domination of No. 6 Kansas, 72-40, and outscoring their opponents by an average of 37 points, oddsmakers have made the Wildcats the clear-cut favorite to win it all in 2015. The media and the public are ready to give them the title already in November as they have an unbelievably talented roster that contains eight McDonald's All-Americans.
Duke and Wisconsin have also been burying opponents and look to be top contenders to fend off the loaded Wildcats. However, it is still very early in the season, and if history has taught us anything over the last 10 years it's that the preseason favorites don't always end up cutting down the nets in early April.
Over the last decade, the team to come away with the championship has begun the season with an average of nearly 20-1 odds to win the title. Anything can happen in March; we saw UConn storm through the tournament a year ago while starting the season at 60-1 odds to win it all. So let's take a look at some teams currently in that historic range who might have a chance to unseat the mighty Kentucky Wildcats at season's end.
North Carolina: 15-1
The Tar Heels have a chance for a special season. They return three starters from a team that won 24 games a year ago and are led by one of the top players in the ACC in Marcus Paige. He averaged more than 17 points a game a year ago to go along with 4.2 assists. Roy Williams was quoted as saying, despite moving to the two-guard position, that Paige will have the ball in his hands as much as possible this season. Paige opted not to go pro and is a potential lottery pick in next year's NBA Draft.
This can be a very dangerous team with Paige leading the way to go along with the athleticism up front that Roy Williams always seems to have. Big man Kennedy Meeks has emerged as a low-post presence, averaging 16.6 points per game and 11 rebounds through the early part of the season. J.P. Tokoto is a freak of an athlete and is one of the more dynamic players in the ACC. This guy can really defend. He is one of three Tar Heels returning who averaged in double figures last season and is a great compliment to the big men that North Carolina has up front.
With the scoring ability of Paige, as well as the overall athleticism and size in the front court, this can be a team to be reckoned with in the tournament. The maturity of Meeks is a big key to the Tar Heels season because he is a big body who can add some much-needed scoring punch in the paint. The Tar Heels are an excellent defensive and rebounding team, two ingredients needed to win games in the tournament.
Louisville: 20-1
There are a lot of question marks surrounding Louisville this season after losing Russ Smith and Luke Hancock. However, Rick Pitino feels strongly that this team can be even better than last year's squad that made it to the Sweet 16. The key to replacing Smith will be the emergence of Chris Jones, who averaged more than 10 points a game a year ago. Pitino feels confident in passing the torch to Jones to lead the offense and be the man to ignite the full-court pressure defense that Louisville likes to play.
The other big factor that helps the Cardinals' chances of advancing to another Final Four is the return of Montrezl Harrell. Harrell is a beast inside at scoring the basketball and crashing the glass. He averaged 14.8 points per game a season ago and had 8.4 rebounds per game. When Louisville needs points, they have a clear go-to guy in Harrell who can get the job done down low and get easy baskets with his 6-foot-8, 240-pound frame. Harrell is a pre-season All-American and is capable of riding the young Cardinals to a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.
The Cardinals will also have a rejuvenated Wayne Blackshear, who can take some of the pressure off losing Hancock as the Cardinals' main perimeter threat. He has rededicated himself to basketball and is ready for a breakout season, according to Pitino.
ACC play will help the younger players get ready for the rigors of March, and Louisville just might have enough talent to make a deep run in the postseason. They will have to rely on new players stepping into bigger roles, but they still seem capable of playing their up-tempo, pressure defensive style that can give opposing teams fits on the offensive end. Louisville's style of play can be difficult to prepare for in quick turnaround situations for opponents who aren't accustomed to facing the brand of basketball that Pitino-coached teams impose.
Gonzaga: 15-1
Gonzaga has been very impressive thus far in the early part of the season, including a 16-point victory over an SMU team that was ranked at the time. They are outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 95-52 and have people wondering if this year's team is the one that can finally advance past the Sweet 16.
With guard play being vital in tournament play, the Zags are in excellent shape with the return of Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell. Pangos and Bell form one of the top backcourts in the country, and their ability to shoot from the perimeter make the Zags a tough out for anybody in the NCAA Tournament. The two seniors have shot a combined 41.6 percent from the 3-point line in their first three seasons at Gonzaga. The 3-ball can be a great equalizer and make Gonzaga very dangerous in a tournament setting if they get hot at the right time.
Not only do they have great guard play, but they have one of the biggest players in the country, and he has really come a long way offensively, in junior Przemek Karnowski. He protects the rim at 7-foot-1 and 300 pounds and can cause major matchup problems as he continues to progress offensively. The Zags not only have a great returning core but also three transfers who can contribute right away. Kyle Wiltjer, a 6-foot-10 transfer from Kentucky, helps make the Zags one of the biggest teams in the country. They will be tough to rebound against. And when you combine their excellent outside perimeter play with big guys who can be productive in the paint, this can be a very dangerous team. The Zags are deep, talented, and extremely well-coached by Mark Few, who Las Vegas wise guys absolutely love. Few always seems to get the most out of his players, and this might be his best team yet in his tenure at Gonzaga.
Virginia: 30-1
Tony Bennett has built a winning culture at Virginia, and his team relies on tenacious defense as the Cavaliers were No. 1 in the country in points allowed last season, giving up just over 55 points a game. They lost a key player in Joe Harris, but the past few recruiting classes that Bennett has brought in played important roles last season and should be even better this year.
They stifle opponents on defense and are extremely athletic. The Cavaliers can really wear on the competition with their style of play and the emergence of Justin Anderson as a scorer as he has averaged 16.6 points per game through the first few games. That is a really good sign that Virginia can not only compete in the ACC but in March as well.
Malcolm Brogdon returns as the team's leading scorer from a year ago and was an All-ACC selection and will likely be again this year. Like other teams that have a chance at a big run, the Cavaliers are solid at the guard position as London Perrantes is very dependable at the point, dishing out almost four assists a game as a sophomore last season. Up front, they have size and athletes that can be difficult to match up with for most tournament teams. It all starts with defense and guard play for this team, and they certainly have both.
If young players continue to emerge this team is only going to get better and be poised for a deep tournament run.
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