College Basketball Betting: Handicapping the ATS Studs and Duds
by Trevor Whenham - 12/9/2014
We are about a month into what has already been a surprising and highly-entertaining college basketball season. The best is still yet to come - we are still a couple of weeks away from the start of conference play. It's a good time, though, to look back at what we have seen so far to see which teams have really done well for bettors and which ones have really struggled to deliver value. To be able to control the massive number of teams, I have limited this first look at college basketball's studs and duds to teams from major conferences - the Power 5 of college football, plus the AAC and Big East.
Studs
Seton Hall (6-0 ATS): The Pirates built some momentum late last year with a shocking upset of Villanova in the Big East Tournament, and they have carried that into this season - they are undefeated through seven games. The massive asterisk here, though, is that they have played no one. They are not a great team, yet they have been favored every time out. Things only get tougher from here, and this wild ride won't last long.
Virginia (6-1 ATS): It's odd to see a team that accomplished so much last year going about things so anonymously this year. Virginia has quietly taken care of business so far this year. Most recently they just demolished a VCU team that was actually a small favorite. The only game they didn't cover was against La Salle, but it is hardly a concern - they were favored by 16.5, and they dominated the first half so dramatically that they essentially took the second half off. This isn't the team they were last year, but they are still going to be solid.
Villanova (6-1 ATS): Like Virginia, Villanova was a good team last year that hasn't missed a beat this year despite some inevitable changes. They have looked good this year, capped by wins over VCU and Michigan on consecutive nights. They failed to cover as 20-point favorites against a feisty Bucknell team, but they still won solidly. They are a good team - the class of their conference - and their betting success could continue.
Texas (6-1 ATS): I don't trust or particularly like this Texas team, but their start has been more than solid. They beat UConn, and they stayed close enough against the power that is Kentucky to cover the spread. Outside of Kansas the Big 12 is so wide-open that if they can keep up their level of play they are going to be very good to bettors all year.
Duds
Penn State (1-6 ATS): I feel bad for D.J. Newbill. He is a very good player having a great season, but the senior is stuck on a team that isn't good enough. Their 8-1 record is very flattering - they haven't played a tough schedule, and given their ATS record obviously aren't winning like they should be (Just think, for a second, about how bad you have to be to have an 8-1 record and have just covered one spread!). When Big Ten season rolls around they are going to be in for a very rough ride - and spreads will continue to be tough to cover.
Tennessee (0-5-1 ATS): The Volunteers have played only six games, but having already played - and lost to - Kansas and VCU, you can't accuse them of a soft schedule. Their problem is that they just aren't very good. They are 3-3, but they haven't won by enough when they have been favored, and they haven't been competitive enough against good teams. It could be a long year for a team that always seems to be rebuilding - though the SEC isn't exactly tough this year.
SMU (1-5-1 ATS): Hopes were very high for Larry Brown and company heading into the season - even after their all-world recruit went to China. So far, though, it has been a huge disappointment of a season. They have played three decent teams - Gonzaga, Indiana and Arkansas - and they lost all three. They have a tough trip to Michigan coming up before Christmas, too. Finding a rotation that works has been an issue for the team, and until that is sorted out it could be a rough year. With UConn and Memphis also limping out of the gate, though, the AAC is wide-open, so there is no guarantee that these struggles will continue,. They are, after all, better coached than most teams.
Washington State (2-6 ATS): This is, simply, a bad team. Their schedule has been laughably weak - an embarrassment for a major conference team - yet they have failed to live up to expectations through it. The Pac-12 is solid this year, and the Cougars are going to be in trouble - to the glee of bettors who consistently bet against them.
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