California Chrome Odds to Win the 2014 Belmont Stakes
by Trevor Whenham - 5/26/2014
We are inching closer and closer to the Belmont Stakes. Some years the average sports fan barely even notices. When there is a Triple Crown on the line like this year, though, the sports world pays attention, and the three weeks between the Preakness and the Belmont seem to pass almost impossibly slowly.
All eyes, and all hopes rest on California Chrome. He has made winning the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness look easy. Can he do it again? Or are his pedigree issues and limitations finally going to catch up to him? Most significantly for bettors, what are California Chrome's odds to win the 2014 Belmont Stakes? Let's take a look:
California Chrome: Sportsbook.ag has him , unsurprisingly, as the heavy favorite. What is interesting, though, is the early line movement. When lines first came up you could find him widely at -120, and I even briefly saw -140 and -160 in spots. Now, though, he sits at even money. That still has him as the heavy favorite, but it's a sign that public bettors - at least those that are betting early - are having some cold feet about this date with destiny.
There are a lot of reasons for that. Some truly exceptional horses - Silver Charm, Big Brown, Smarty Jones - have been unable to do, in recent years, what California Chrome is trying to. The horse has consistently and impressively outrun his pedigree, but he really doesn't have the class or the stamina in his breeding to seemingly manage this test.
There are also some pretty decent horses lining up to challenge him. Sharp bettors are also going to separate emotion and hope from the search for value, and they are not going to accept or embrace really low odds.
Add it all up and, though I have no doubt that he will be heavily favored in this race, I don't expect things to get really crazy - at least not until post time draws near and booze-fueled giddiness drives things into the ground.
Here are the odds for some other notable horses in the 2014 Belmont Stakes:
Ride On Curlin (+600): I really like this horse, and I have no problem with him being the second choice. He was brilliant in the Preakness, and I still don't believe he has come close to running his best race. Despite that, though, I am truly surprised that he is the second choice to win this race.
I did not expect him to beat out the three horses tied at the same odds behind him - Tonalist, Wicked Strong, and Commanding Curve. He has the disadvantage of having run both Triple Crown races, so I expected - and still do expect - the public to ultimately embrace a different horse as the second choice.
Tonalist (+800): The big-name newcomer is a hot choice after winning impressively in the Peter Pan last time out on the same Belmont surface he'll run on here. He has little experience, but what he has accomplished has been impressive.
This is the kind of horse that the public is going to embrace the more familiar they get with him - if they can tear themselves away from the favorite, that is.
Wicked Strong (+800): He was the second choice in the Derby, and he could easily be the second choice again here. His race there was better than it initially seemed, and he has nothing to be ashamed of. If you liked him then, you will be hard pressed to look past him here if the price stays in this neighborhood.
Commanding Curve (+800): He looked very good late in the Derby, and he has the pedigree to run endlessly. Some will have issues getting behind him because he was such a long shot in the Derby. On paper, though, he seems like a solid fit in this race, and he would easily and justifiably be at lower odds in a different situation.
Candy Boy (+3000): When you are obsessed with Triple Crown racing like I am, you learn that there is no such thing as a surprise. I was certain that we had seen the last of Candy Boy after his disappointing and forgettable trip in the Derby. He went back to California and seemed to be regrouping for a summer campaign. He clearly was looking good, though, because out of nowhere he was pointed at this race last week. Trainer John Sadler is a conservative man, so this unexpected attention deserves respect and attention.
Social Inclusion (+3500): This is a perfect example of just how fickle horse bettors can be. This horse was the second choice in the Preakness. Though he had some trip issues and his inexperience showed, he still rounded out the trifecta and had nothing to be ashamed of. Yet here he is, an afterthought in this race. He is a speed horse, and the Belmont doesn't always treat those well, but his class and potential far outstrip these massive odds.
I'm not saying he is going to win the race, but - at least in a comparative sense - there is a lot of value in this price.
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Read more articles by Trevor Whenham
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