Arizona Diamondbacks Odds to Win 2014 World Series
by Alan Matthews - 3/6/2014
Perhaps this is setting up as the best sports season in Phoenix history. The Suns are one of the NBA's biggest surprises, although winning a playoff series would be a shocker. The NHL's Coyotes are on the fringes of the Western Conference playoff race, but at least the team's future is now solidified in the area. The Cardinals appear on the rise -- they were the only 10-win team to miss the playoffs in 2013 -- under new coach Bruce Arians, and it's not unthinkable that they could be the first team to play in a Super Bowl in their host stadium as XLIX will be held in Glendale next Feb. 1. Could the Arizona Diamondbacks join in on the success?
The Phoenix area probably believes it is overdue for a championship, although I'd say ask Cleveland about that. The only two champions in the area have been the Suns in 1976 and the Diamondbacks in 2001, that epic seven-game World Series against the Yankees post-9/11. The only area team to play for it all since then was the Cardinals in the 2008 season, a loss to Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl. So I suppose you could compare Phoenix to Seattle in that regard. The last title that city played for was a loss to Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl, and the Seahawks delivered for that title-starved area back in February.
The difference being that the Seahawks were a preseason Super Bowl favorite, and not a whole lot is expected of the Diamondbacks after their 81-81 finish a season ago. The pressure must be on GM Kevin Towers because he was very active this offseason and gave up some good young players like outfielder Adam Eaton, third baseman Matt Davidson and highly-regarded pitching prospect Tyler Skaggs in an effort to win now. Towers and Manager Kirk Gibson recently had their contracts extended through 2015, but here's what owner Ken Kendrick said in what amounted to putting those two on the hot seat: "Frankly, it's a performance business. People that are in the position of manager, general manager and players are rewarded for performance."
Diamondbacks 2014 Projected Lineup
The Diamondbacks were a pretty power-less group last season other than MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt, so priority No. 1 for Towers was adding a big bat, and it cost him Skaggs and Eaton in a three-team deal to get Mark Trumbo from the Angels. Many "experts" thought Towers paid too much for Trumbo as he hit only .234 last year and struck out 184 times. That said, players who can hit 30 bombs are rare nowadays, and Trumbo hit 34 for the Halos. He is who he is: either a home run or a strikeout will be the result of a good 33 percent of his at-bats. He's also not a good outfielder. The Snakes were OK giving up Eaton because A.J. Pollock emerged in center field last year with Eaton hurting. Dealing Skaggs could come back to bite Towers.
The only recognizable name in the Arizona lineup other than Trumbo is Goldschmidt, who had his best season by far, hitting .302 with 36 homers and 125 RBIs. He finished a distant second to Pittsburgh's Andrew McCutchen in the MVP voting. The lineup looks pretty solid, with underrated players in right fielder Gerardo Parra (.268, 10 HRs), who is likely to leadoff this year, second baseman Aaron Hill (.291, 11 HRs), and third baseman Martin Prado (.282, 82 RBIs). The team is hoping outfielder Cody Ross can return from last season's dislocated hip sometime in April, but that might be pushing it.
Diamondbacks 2014 Projected Rotation & Closer
Towers' other priority this offseason was to get a true No. 1 starter. He talked with the Cubs about Jeff Samardzija, and the Diamondbacks were in on the bidding for Masahiro Tanaka, but they couldn't land either. So Towers instead signed former Reds right-hander Bronson Arroyo to a two-year deal. He's 37 but has been very durable in his career, pitching at least 199.0 innings in each of the past nine years, and he won 14 games in 2013. However, he does have an inflamed disk in his back and will miss the next 10 days or so. Keep an eye on that. He's also a fly-ball pitcher, which doesn't really suit Arizona's Chase Field.
So the ace again will be lefty Patrick Corbin (14-8, 3.41), and he will throw the first pitch of the 2014 season when the Diamondbacks "host" the L.A. Dodgers on March 22 in a regular-season game in Australia. Only Corbin and Arroyo had winning records last year among the projected starting five, with Trevor Cahill (8-10, 3.99), Wade Miley (10-11, 3.55) and Brandon McCarthy (5-11, 4.53) likely to round out the rotation. Archie Bradley, one of the top pitching prospects in MLB, waits in the wings should one fail.
The new closer is former White Sox Addison Reed, who cost the Snakes Davidson, a Top-100 MLB prospect. Reed had 40 saves and 3.79 ERA last season on a bad team. The Diamondbacks had to shuffle through a handful of closers last year, and one of them, Heath Bell, was dumped in a salary move.
Diamondbacks 2014 Odds to Win the World Series and Futures Odds with 2013 Trends
At Sportsbook.ag, Arizona is +1200 to win the NL West, +2500 to win the NL pennant and +6000 to win the World Series. The Snakes have an "over/under" wins total of 81 (over slight -120 favorite). Arizona was 71-84-7 O/U last season and 72-90 on the runline. Trumbo has a home runs total of 28.5 (over -120 favorite). Goldschmidt's total is 29.5 (over -130 favorite).
2014 Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Predictions
Are the Diamondbacks that much better with Trumbo? Well, his wins-above replacement last season was 2.2. Reed's was 1.2. That sounds about right, in that I could see the Snakes jumping from 81 wins to around 84. I don't think this team challenges for the NL West title and in fact could finish fourth. Don't count out Towers snagging Samardzija before the trade deadline, which would certainly change Arizona's playoff chances. I lean over on both Trumbo's and Goldschmidt's homers, although Trumbo could struggle adjusting to new pitchers.
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Read more articles by Alan Matthews
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