After a very long process, the field is finally set for the 2014 World Cup, which gets underway June 12, 2014, in Brazil. We won’t know what the groups are until Dec. 6, but this is still a good time to look at the World Cup futures odds for value, make a few predictions, and get a little bit more ready for the biggest tournament on the planet. (All odds are from Bovada):

Brazil (10/3): It’s no surprise at all, of course, that the Brazilians are the strong favorite here. They would likely be favored wherever the tournament was held, but the home-field advantage puts them over the top. What bettors really need to decide is whether they are going to go with them or against them at this price. There are a few arguments against — they haven’t made it past the quarterfinals since they last won it in 2002, because they automatically qualified they haven’t played meaningful games to prepare like other key contenders, and the pressure on the shoulders of the team will be very intense, and it would be incomprehensibly stifling if they were to falter early. My gut says that they are the best team, and it would be far from a surprise to see them win, but the price doesn’t offer much value. At this point I’ll look to beat them at a better price.

Germany (5/1): At Euro 2012, the Germans cruised through qualifying with 10 wins in 10 games, breezed through the round robin, and then fell flat against Italy in the semifinal. It was an underachievement when things got intense in a major international event for the Germans — stop me if you have heard that one before. Now they have looked very good in qualifying for this tournament — one draw and nine wins in 10 games. Do they have the assets needed to win a tournament like this? Absolutely — perhaps more than any other team than Brazil. Do I trust them? Not evenly slightly. I see no value in this price.

Argentina (11/2): If I’m going to back a South American squad, this may very well be it. They are not as good as Brazil, but the gap isn’t huge. They are very talented, and they will enjoy plenty of fan support without the pressure that Brazil will face. The draw will be particularly significant here, but on the surface I like the price here much better than the one for the hosts. If you are looking at South America, you have to consider Uruguay at 25/1 as well, though they would really need a prime draw to justify that price.

Spain (6/1): they won the last World Cup and the last two European Championships, so the Spaniards are obviously a factor. They arguably weren’t quite as sharp in qualifying as you would like to see despite not losing — a draw against Finland raised some eyebrows. They are older, too, and we are watching the transition between eras. Still, this is Spain, and we know that they are going to be ready. Spain won’t be my first choice to win the tournament, and playing in South America against some very good teams will be a disadvantage. However, all things considered, this price is more than fair — and better than it is likely to be down the road.

Belgium (14/1): This is a story you don’t see often in international soccer — a team that hasn’t qualified for the last two world Cups is sitting as the fifth choice in the field. The young squad qualified with convincing ease, and they have patiently developed a whole new generation of talent. While there is a lot to like about the team, I think we are four years ahead of their prime. The pressure of this tournament will be new for them, and that is going to be too much to overcome. This is a team on the rise, but this is too much attention right now.

USA (100/1): I’m not crazy about this team and their chances in this tournament. They certainly aren’t as strong as they have been in the past. This price could offer a bit of value, though — at least by comparison. They are at the same price, for example, as Mexico. Based on what we saw in head-to-head action in recent months, I don’t think that that is justified. Mexico may be more talented, but they are a mess. If nothing else, it seems likely that the price will fall for the Americans between now and the tournament — especially if they do well in the draw. If you plan to bet on them at all, then, this could be the time to do so.

World Cup Futures Odds
Brazil -- 10/3
Germany -- 5/1
Argentina -- 11/2
Spain -- 6/1
Belgium -- 14/1
Holland -- 20/1
Italy -- 20/1
England -- 22/1
France -- 25/1
Colombia -- 25/1
Uruguay -- 25/1
Portugal -- 28/1
Chile -- 40/1
Russia -- 80/1
Mexico --         100/1
USA -- 100/1
Ghana -- 125/1
Croatia -- 125/1
Switzerland -- 125/1
Ivory Coast -- 125/1
Ecuador -- 150/1
Japan -- 150/1
Bosnia-Herzegovina -- 150/1
Nigeria -- 250/1
Greece -- 250/1
South Korea -- 250/1
Cameroon -- 250/1
Australia -- 250/1
Algeria -- 1000/1
Costa Rica -- 1000/1
Iran -- 1500/1
Honduras -- 1500/1

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