We are coming off a quiet but effective week for the Public Action Report. There were only three games that fit the criteria, but Memphis was a runaway winner as a four-point underdog, and the Dolphins proved they were for real by beating the Falcons at home. A record of 2-1 ATS — I’d take that every week for the rest of my life. This week we have an identical three-game agenda, and hopefully we’ll be at least as successful.

What is the criterion we are working with here? Basically, what we are looking for are situations where the line movement doesn’t make sense. If more than 70 percent of bets on a game have been made on one team then the odds for that team would usually get less attractive because the sportsbooks will be looking to make the action more balanced to minimize their risk. There are times, though, when you’ll see situations in which the odds are moving to become more attractive for a team despite the lopsided action on them. That’s what we are looking for. When we see that, we know that either the smart money is heavily betting against the public or, for some other reason, the sports books aren’t afraid of heavy action on the popular side. Either way, the team that is less popular to the public is worth a close look for us. Without further ado:

College football

West Virginia (+18) vs. Oklahoma State (Saturday, Sept. 28, noon ET)

The line in this one opened with the visiting Cowboys favored by three touchdowns, but it has since slipped to 18 points. Given that more than 70 percent of bets have come in on the Cowboys, that means that the Mountaineers are worth a look here. On the surface there isn’t much to like about West Virginia. The pressure of scandal could be weighing on Oklahoma State, though. More significantly, Dana Holgorsen’s last job before the head job at West Virginia was offensive coordinator for Mike Gundy and the Cowboys. That means he has a sense of what to expect here, and he will be motivated not to embarrass himself. I don’t think they can win, but they could be capable of keeping it close enough to cover given the circumstances.

Kentucky (+12.5) vs. Florida (Saturday, Sept. 28, 7 p.m. ET)

More than three-quarters of all bets have been placed on the Gators, yet the line opened at the key number of 14 and has since fallen to 12.5. That’s an indicator that the Wildcats are worth a look here. It’s not hard to figure out why there is a lack of confidence around the Gators at this moment. They have lost both starting QB Jeff Driskel and starting DT Dominique Easley for the year with injuries in the past week. That will shake their confidence, and they were far from dominant in the first place. Kentucky has been rocky this year, but coach Mark Stoops is looking for a statement to help establish his new regime, and this could certainly qualify, so he will be motivated.

NFL

Cleveland Browns (+4) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Both teams are coming off big wins as underdogs. The line movement suggests that the Browns could be heading for another one — or at least a nice cover. An amazing 80 percent of bets in this one have gone on the backs of the Bengals, yet the line has moved from 6.0 to 4.0. That means Cleveland is worth a close look. The Bengals lost their only road game of the year, so they are not in their best position here. The Browns showed a lot of heart in their road win last week, and Brian Hoyer is starting for the second week in a row, so they will have the most competent quarterbacking they have had in a couple of years — at least.

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