It has been three very good weeks for the Public Action Report. After going 2-1 ATS for two weeks in a row, we had quite probably the best week in the entire history of the Report last week. We wound up 6-1 ATS, and moneyline players had four underdog winners capped by South Florida beating Cincinnati as 11.5-point dogs. In other words, you were going to make money last week no matter what you did. In the last three weeks it all adds up to 10-3 ATS. Let’s keep it rolling with this six-game card this week.

Before we do, though, we should revisit the criteria. We can’t find out how much money has been bet on each side of games — sportsbooks carefully guard that information — but we can know what percentage of the bets have been placed on each side. When a large percentage of action — more than 70 percent of bets — has been placed on one team, we would expect the odds for that team to move to become less attractive so that the books can attempt to balance their action. What we are looking for are cases in which the heavily-bet team has seen their line move to make them more attractive. When that happens we know that either sharp money is heavily on the less-popular team or for some other reason the books don’t fear action on the popular team. Either way, it is an indication that the less-popular team is worth our attention.

College football (all games are played on Saturday, Oct. 12)

Iowa State (+14) at Texas Tech (noon ET)

The Red Raiders are public darlings after the hiring of ultra-competent Kliff Kingsbury and the fast start. It’s no surprise, then, that they have drawn nearly three-quarters of the bets in this one. Given that, it is noteworthy that the line has dropped from 16 to 14 — a clear sign that Iowa State is worth a look here. Iowa State has an ugly 1-3 record, but they have played a good Iowa team and Texas tight, so they are better than they appear. They are also a feisty team that seems to play their best when they have dreams to crush. Texas Tech has injury issues at QB, and they are still a raw, inexperienced team that has faced little adversity. This is a lot of points for them to give up.

Memphis (+9) at Houston (noon ET)

This is the third week in a row that Memphis has shown up on this report, so the sharp money clearly likes the team a whole lot more than the betting public does. They have covered both previous games, and they won outright as a 3.5-point dog two weeks back, so they have been very good to us. This week Houston has drawn almost 80 percent of the bets, yet the line has dropped by a full field goal from 12 to nine. That means we are looking at Memphis, and I am happy to do it. Houston is unbeaten, but they are overachieving against a weak schedule, so they aren’t as good as they seem.

Florida Atlantic (+11) vs. Marshall (5 p.m. ET)

We have a big home underdog here. That’s often not a bad place to have your money invested. Marshall has drawn more than three-quarters of the action, yet the line has dropped by 13 to 11, and it is showing signs of dropping even further. That’s a clear sign that FAU is worth a look. Though FAU is far from a good team, they are an impressive 5-1 ATS, so they know how to cover spreads.

Utah State (+6.5) vs. Boise State (8 p.m. ET)

This is a good example of how smart money and the public can differ on the impact of a high-profile injury. Utah State lost outstanding QB Chuckie Keeton last time out. In response, more than three-quarters of bettors have backed the Broncos. Despite that, sharp action has driven the line through the key number of seven from the 7.5 starting point to 6.5. That means that the Aggies are still worth our attention despite the setback. Utah State still has the better defense — by a wide margin — and their new QB starter is a junior who has seen plenty of mop up action, so he won’t be overwhelmed.

NFL

Baltimore Ravens (+3) vs. Green Bay Packers (1 p.m. ET)

This game opened at 3.5 points, and more than 70 percent of bets have been on the Packers. Despite that, the line has dropped to the key number of three. That’s a very significant key number in the NFL, so any time a line moves to it in the face of heavy action we should pay attention — and that means looking closely at the Ravens. The line can even be found at 2.5 in spots, which makes things even more significant. The Packers have lost both of their road games while the Ravens have won both at home, so geography definitely favors the defending champs.

Cleveland Browns (+2.5) vs. Detroit Lions (1 p.m. ET)

This game opened with the Lions favored by three points, but they are now just giving up 2.5 in most places. Given that they have drawn more than 70 percent of bets, that means that the Browns are worth a look here. It’s somewhat surprising that is the case given the loss of Brian Hoyer, but this is another case of where the public and the sharp money disagree on the impact of a high-profile injury. The Lions have injury woes of their own, and the Browns are playing strong defense, so this three-game winning streak, while incredibly unlikely, is not just due to finally briefly discovering a starting QB.

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