Last week the hot streak of the Public Action Report cooled off slightly. After going 10-3 ATS in the three previous weeks, things just fell short of breaking even last time out at 3-3 ATS. We are back strong with a very busy week this week — six college football games and a somewhat surprising pick in the NFL.

Before we get to the seven games, let’s refresh ourselves on the criteria. These are not games that look good to me or that I have a feeling about. In fact, I have nothing to do with which games are picked. If they fit the criteria, they are in. What we look at is the percentage of bets that have been placed on each team. In most cases, if one team has a wide majority of the bets on them — at least 70 percent in our case — then you would expect the line to move to make the favorite less attractive so that oddsmakers can limit their risk. Sometimes, though, we’ll see the line move to make those more popular teams even more attractive. That unexpected movement in the line indicates one of two things. Either the books aren’t afraid of extra action on the one side for some reason, or a small number of bettors are betting large enough amounts on the less-popular team to force the line movement. In either case, people with a lot of resources and insight have a clear interest in the less-popular team, and it makes sense that we should take a closer look at them as well.

Without further ado, here are the games to look at this week:

College football (all games played on Saturday, Oct. 19)

UConn (+14.5) at Cincinnati (noon ET)

More than three-quarters of bets have come in on the home team — the Bearcats — so it is noteworthy that the line opened at 16 and has been on a freefall. It is down to 14.5 and can even be found as low as 13.5, which means it has moved through the key number of 13. That means that UConn is worth a look. This is the second game they have played since their coaching change, so they should be more prepared and comfortable, and they are up against a team that has covered the spread only once in their last five.

Vanderbilt (+7) vs. Georgia (noon ET)

More than 70 percent of bets have come in on the Bulldogs, yet the line has dropped from 9.0 to the key number of 7.0. That means that the Commodores are worth a look. Georgia is battered and likely mentally reeling after the unexpected loss to Missouri, so they could be vulnerable. Vandy has had a week off to prepare, and should be able to exploit a vulnerable Georgia secondary.

Syracuse (+7.5) at Georgia Tech (12:30 p.m. ET)

Three-quarters of bettors favor Georgia Tech, but the line has dropped to 7.5 from 9.0, so we should be looking at Syracuse. The Orange have won and covered three of their last four, and the loss came against Clemson, so it’s hardly shameful. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, hasn’t won or covered three straight.

Central Michigan (+15.5) vs. Northern Illinois (3 p.m. ET)

Unbeaten Northern Illinois has, not surprisingly, pulled in almost three-quarters of the bets, yet the line has dropped from 17.5 to 15.5. That means we are looking at the home team Chippewas in this one. The Huskies have covered only two of their last five spreads and have not covered against their three weakest opponents, so they could let their foot off the gas if they start well here. CMU, Meanwhile, has covered their last two spreads. 

Louisiana Tech (+3.5) vs. North Texas (3:30 p.m. ET)

North Texas has drawn almost three-quarters of the action, yet the line has dropped from the key number of seven all the way to 3.5. That’s a clear sign that Louisiana Tech is worthy of attention. Louisiana Tech has long struggled to cover spreads, but have covered two of their last three to find some quiet form.

Georgia State (+16) at Texas State (7 p.m. ET)

I’ll admit I pay very little attention to the Sun Belt outside of Arkansas State and Western Kentucky, so this is kind of exciting. More than 70 percent of bets have come in on Texas State, yet the line has dropped by more than a field goal from 19.5 to 16, so Georgia State gets our attention. The Panthers of Georgia State are new to the FBS this year, and they haven’t won a game yet. They have covered their last four games, though — including trips to Alabama and West Virginia — so they aren’t as bad as people expect.

NFL

Tennessee Titans (+3.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, Oct, 20, 4 p.m. ET)

Nearly 80 percent of bettors have been on the 49ers, yet the line has dropped from 5.0 to 3.5. That tells us that we should be looking at the Titans in this one. San Francisco has won and covered three in a row after their brutal two-game stretch, but they still aren’t back to what they should be — especially offensively. Tennessee is a solid 4-1-1 ATS this year, and have played solid opponents tough in three of their last four games.

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Read more articles by Trevor Whenham