We’re back for another week of the Public Action Report as we look to improve on a weaker week last time out. This time around we have three college games and two from the NFL to look at. Before we get to the games, let’s go over a very brief reminder of the criteria. We are looking for team for which the odds get more attractive even though they have enjoyed the bulk of the betting attention, with 70 percent or more of all bets placed on them. When a team has that kind of lopsided attention the odds should get less attractive as the books try to balance their action to minimize risk. When the opposite happens, it’s a sign of one of two things — either the books have a good reason not to be afraid of their exposure, or a small number of smart bettors are betting a significant amount of money on the less-popular team. Either reason is good enough to pay close attention to the less-popular team.

College Football

Temple (+16.5) vs. UCF (noon ET)

Nearly 90 percent of bets have come in on UCF, the likely AAC Champions. That’s not surprising, yet the line has dropped from 17 to 16.5. It’s a small move but a significant one, because 17 is a key number. That means that Temple gets our attention in this one. The Owls are a lousy 1-8 overall this year, but that is a bit deceptive — at least from a betting perspective. They have actually covered each of their last five spreads and have been very solid underdog betting performers. UCF, meanwhile, has only covered one of their last three as favorites, and they could easily be looking past this outmatched opponent.

Washington State (+11) at Arizona (2 p.m. ET)

This game opened with the Wildcats favored by 13.5 points at home. They have drawn more than 80 percent of the betting action, yet the line has dropped by 2.5 points to 11. That’s a pretty clear sign that sharp action is against Arizona and that we should be as well. The Cougars have actually covered the spread in all four road games they have played — including tough opponents in Auburn, USC and Oregon — so they know how to get prepared when leaving home, and they are actually quite a bit more effective than when at home. Arizona has only covered one of their last three at home.

Louisville (-16) vs. Houston (7 p.m. ET)

These two teams have both blown their chance to take command of the AAC before, and only the winner will have a small mathematical chance remaining of winning the conference. Bettors clearly don’t believe in Louisville here — nearly 85 percent of bets have come in on the Cougars. Despite that, though, the line on the Cardinals opened at 17, has fallen widely to 16, and can even be found at 15.5. That puts us in a fairly rare situation — backing a strong favorite in this report. Houston is in prime position for a letdown game after falling short in a must-win against UCF last week. Louisville is home after two in a row on the road, and they could enjoy a boost as a result.

NFL

Buffalo Bills (-1) vs. New York Jets (1 p.m. ET)

More than 70 percent of bets have come in on the Jets. The line opened at even, and it now sits with the Bills favored by a point. That movement means that the Bills are worth a look. The Jets are coming off an ATS win, but they have followed each of their previous three ATS wins with an ATS loss. They have covered only one of their last three on the road. The Bills, meanwhile, are a strong 4-1 ATS at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) vs. Detroit Lions (1 p.m. ET)

This game opened with Detroit favored by the key number of three on the road. They have drawn 80 percent of the bets, yet the line has dropped to 2.5, and it can be found lower than that in places. That means that the Steelers get our attention here. Pittsburgh has won and covered their last two at home, so they are a much better team there recently than they have been overall. Detroit has covered just once in the last three and has made a science of playing very close games. Calvin Johnson missed practice on Thursday and could be below his best in this one — something that would have a significant and obvious impact on the game.

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