As the money comes in on NFL betting for Week 7, either the line stays steady or it dances around like a desert lizard with hot feet. These are the five most interesting line movers and shakers on the board this coming Sunday. Which movement caught my eye? In some cases it was the lines that didn’t move at all. Read on to find out the best bets for Week 7.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons -7.0

There is no getting around this – nobody seems to trust these injured and gutless Atlanta Falcons. This line opened at -7.0, and it surprised a lot of us around here that it actually stayed there. Since both teams are just 1-4 ATS, the obvious lean should be on the Falcons because they’re playing at home, where they’re a supposedly stiff team.

You want to know the truth? The Falcons are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Beyond that they’re 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven divisional matchups and just 1-4 ATS following a straight up loss. That trend might grow because these Falcons are in a lot of trouble injury-wise. The betting public still seems to have some faith left in Matt Ryan and the Dirty Birds because the majority of the public weight on this game should lean the scale heavily on Atlanta’s side of -7.0.

However, there are a few smart bets out there from people who have obviously noticed that Atlanta’s defense has allowed an honest average of 26.8 points against per game. The Falcons have allowed 30 points twice this season, but no opponent has hung less than 23 points on this defense. There’s a sentiment that if Mike Glennon can run an offense smoothly against anyone, it’s the walking wounded on the Atlanta Falcons.

CarbonSports Lines Manager Michael Stewart:

“We opened the Falcons an eight-point favorite, and even though action has been very limited on this game between two non-contenders, there’s been a big move from -8.0 all the way to the key number of 7.0 that was due to sharp action taking the points with the Bucs.  We fully expect the public will hammer the Falcons -7.0, but with all their injury issues, it’s understandable why the sharps backed the Bucs.”

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles -2.5

Either the world loves Nick Foles all of a sudden, or people are scared to death of the Dallas Cowboys’ injury report. This game opened as a “pick‘em” because the status of a few key starters remained uncertain, and people usually hate betting on the Philadelphia Eagles. When the news was released that both DeMarcus Ware and DeMarco Murray would be absent from this game, the line was quickly adjusted to -2.5 for the Eagles, and the action steadily streamed in on the Dallas Cowboys. People love taking the point cushion in these NFC East Games.

But should they? The Dallas Cowboys were never exactly deep at the running-back position, and the combined losses of Ware and Spencer on their defensive lines are irreplaceable. Even then, those that took the point cushion need to be reminded that the Cowboys are just 4-10 ATS when playing against members of their own division.

Nobody seems ready to give the Eagles credit for their two wins because of who they were against (Tampa and the New York Giants), but a 2-0 SU and ATS winning streak is still just that. Add to the fact that the suspiciously-incredible Nick Foles from Week 6 will be starting again for the Eagles. Dallas’s backers have been rewarded handsomely this year with a strong 5-1 ATS record thus far. However, is their good faith about to backfire in their faces? The oddsmakers sure think so.

CarbonSports Lines Manager Michael Stewart:

“Early money is on the Cowboys, and that’s understandable because they’ve been playing great, and their last two games, which they covered in both, were national TV games, and the entire world got to see just how talented this Cowboys team is on offense.  But while there’s talent on that side of the ball, their defense has been hit hard with injuries.  This line would be more like a pick’em if not for those injuries, but we opened the Eagles -2.5, and so far it’s been great two-way action.  I don’t see much movement on this game unless the sharps get involved.”

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs -6.5

This line came out at -4.5 for the home team and was quickly stampeded by the masses trying to get in on the action. The Chiefs have harbored nearly all of the money on this game, with a couple people still holding out hope for the 0-6 ATS Houston Texans. The announcement of Case Keenum as the new starter in Houston hasn’t really created that much of a buzz, and the line holding steady at its new position indicates that this is where it’s going to be. It could inflate even more on Sunday because most people should realize that the Chiefs have the best scoring defense in the league and share the best cover record in the NFL along with Dallas at 5-1 ATS. Don’t be surprised if this line inches farther away from the Chiefs closer to game time. It probably should anyhow.

CarbonSports Lines Manager Michael Stewart:

“We opened this game Chiefs -4.5, and boy, that was a mistake.  We got hammered w/ both sharp action and public action, and we’re quite exposed on the Chiefs right now.  The sharps took advantage of our low number, pounding the Chiefs as soon as we hung our line, and they pounded it all the way up to -6.  The public has also jumped on board, and they too are hammering the Chiefs, laying 6.0 and 6.5, driving our price on this game to Chiefs -7.0.  At -7.0, some of our value bettors took the points, and we eventually went back to 6.5, and that’s the price we’re currently dealing.”

St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers -6.5

The surprising part of this matchup isn’t that the line has moved up a shade from its -6.0 opening for the Panthers. It’s that the action is virtually split right down the middle. Neither team has a winning record against the spread, with the Rams posting a 2-4 ATS run while Carolina holds a somewhat disappointing 2-3 ATS record of their own.

The curious part about this is that St. Louis has looked anything but reliable, beating up on two hopeless teams in Houston and Jacksonville over the past two weeks. Before that they were absolutely trampled by San Francisco and Dallas. Even stranger is the fact that St. Louis is usually the much better bet in their own building. They’ve been historically unreliable on the road.

The action may be evenly divided so far, but the smart money is on Carolina, and you can tell because of the way the line changed. If this was a dead-on spread, the line wouldn’t have moved because the action volume is balanced. That slight bump means that the sharps are leaning more towards the home bound Panthers than the visiting Rams. Take that for what you will.

CarbonSports Lines Manager Michael Stewart:

“We opened the Panthers -6.0, and so far the early action is on the Panthers.  Nothing too extreme, but myself and the rest of my staff like the Panthers in this spot.  The Rams are very one-dimensional, and while they beat the Texans last week, the Texans did what they’ve done all year, handing the game over to the Rams via turnovers.  With the Rams off a big upset win on the road and now having to travel again on back-to-back weeks, the Panthers could be poised for a big blowout win as they’re playing with poise and confidence after their convincing win over the Vikings.  We went from 6 to -6.5 not really based on money but based on the fact that we lean Panthers on this game and wanted our bettors to have to lay the extra half point if they wanted to back the team that we like in this matchup.”

Denver Broncos -6.5 at Indianapolis Colts

How could we not include this game? This line opened up in that dreaded midway zone at -5.0 but quickly bumped up to -6.5 in favor of Peyton Manning and the seemingly-unstoppable Denver Broncos. Even though they’re 0-2 ATS in their last pair of matchups (3-2-1 ATS on the season), the Broncos continue to receive a barrage of trust from the public sector, with nearly two-thirds of the action squatting on Manning’s side of the line.

As for his old team, it’s easy to see why the sharps might be wary of Andrew Luck’s Colts. This team can be the one that has a Top-5 defense and the next great quarterback in the making…or they can be the team gets blown out by San Diego or churned aside by the Miami Dolphins. At just 3-3 ATS on the season, the Colts haven’t developed a strong and consistent following in the sportsbook, and that’s completely fair. Young teams have trouble maintaining a rhythm. Even the 11-5 SU Colts from 2012 had a ton of barn burners that they barely won through somewhat miraculous circumstances.

Still, there is a strong sentiment that the Broncos are simply flat out better than the Colts. The only reason that this line is so small is because of the emotional factor, along with the suspicion that the Colts might have a nastier defense than the one we saw on Monday Night. The short week also stings the Colts a bit in this one, but nothing will hurt more than seeing their former golden boy strut his stuff like he used to in a different uniform, especially with Wes Welker likely for the endzone. Either way, this will be a fantastic moment in football history to watch.

CarbonSports Lines Manager Michael Stewart:

“We opened the Broncos -6.5 and quickly we saw a wave of money on the Broncos here.  We went to -7.0, and after going to -7, we still saw money come in on the Broncos, but we booked significant sharp action on the dog at +7.0.  Being that 7.0 is such a key number in the NFL, we didn’t want to go back to 6.5 because we already have seen a ton of money at that number, but we had to move the line out of respect for the sharp action at +7.0, so we adjusted the juice and made the Colts +7.0, -120, making the Broncos -7.0, +100.  I do see us closing this game Broncos -7.0 flat.”

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