The total line results were a dead even 16-16 heading into Week 3 of the NFL season, but points were a little harder to come by for a number of teams last week, with nine of the 16 games staying “under” the closing total line. My hot start got doused with an icy 1-2 record in last week’s picks, but I still have twice as many wins as losses through the first three weeks of the season.

Each and every week of the NFL regular season, I will be crunching the numbers of all the matchups to uncover a few golden opportunities to cash in on the total line. The following are my top three picks for Week 4 based on lines by 5Dimes.

Sunday, Sept.29

Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills (1 p.m. CBS)            
Total Line: 43.5

Game Overview

Everyone questioned how well Baltimore’s defense would hold up after undergoing a complete makeover this past offseason. After giving up 49 points to Denver in the season opener, the Ravens’ new-look defense is starting to find its form and held Cleveland to six points and Houston to just nine in its last two games.

The Bills were committed to going will rookie EJ Manuel as their starting quarterback this season, and as expected there has been some highlights and lowlights in his first three games. Buffalo has been able to score some points so far with an average of 21.7 points a game, but this will be its toughest test of the season.

Game Trends 

The total for this contest opened at 43.5, and it has held steady so far on 5Dimes most recent board. To me, this has the makings of a grinder as neither team’s offense completely in sync just yet. The total has stayed under in five of both the Ravens and the Bills last seven conference games, and it has stayed under in four of the last five meetings between the two.

Game Pick: UNDER

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1 p.m. CBS)            
Total Line: 43

Game Overview

The Colts have quickly risen up the ranks in the NFL power rankings after last week’s masterpiece against San Francisco in which they pushed the 49ers all over the field in a stunning 27-7 victory. I am not going as far as to say this is a potential trap game, but Indianapolis will be playing its a second straight road game, and this time it is against a division opponent.

Jacksonville has quickly established itself as the front-runner to the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft behind an offense that has managed to score a total of 28 points in its first three games. The Jaguars literally have nowhere to go but up as they have the last-ranked offense in the NFL.

Game Trends

The total line opened at 42.5, and it crept up a half point to 43 on the latest board. That is the right direction for me as I see this as a low-scoring affair. Indianapolis is still a very young team that could easily get caught looking past this game, while Jacksonville should play somewhat better against a familiar foe. The total has stayed under in the last four meetings, and it is staying under again this Sunday.

Game Pick: UNDER

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Denver Broncos (4:25 p.m. FOX)       
Total Line: 57

Game Overview:

Chip Kelly’s high-octane offense blew a gasket last Thursday against Kansas City, but he has had 10 days to tinker with an engine that is going to have to run at NASCAR speeds for all four quarters to have any chance to keep this game close. The Eagles are second only to Denver in total offense and are averaging 26.3 points a game.

Peyton Manning is on pace to break every single-season passing record on the books, and the Broncos have rolled over three opponents by a combined score of 127-71 in their first three games. The only negative aspect of this team so far is a defense that has a tendency to give up quite a few junk points when the game is already out of hand.

Game Trends:

Denver on its own is averaging 42.3 points a game, so you would expect an opening total line of 57.5 for this game. It has actually dropped a bit to 57, but that is fine with me. Until someone figures out a way to slow the Broncos down, I would ride the over on this team every single week no matter how high the line is set. It is highly doubtful it will be this week given what we have seen from Philadelphia’s defense so far.

Game Pick: OVER

YTD Record: 6-3

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