We’re hitting that juicy part of the schedule where contenders start to separate from pretenders, and that means that the betting lines are going to be fairer than we’ve seen over the past five weeks. The Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins are the only teams that have the week off. I’ve broken down my favorite bets and non-bets this weekend with some early thoughts on some important matchups. Take a gander and check back with us later in the week. Some are worth grabbing now, but patience might reward the bold later on in the week.

FIRE AWAY

These lines are worth jumping on now because you’re getting strong value on the line no matter what.

New York Giants @ Chicago Bears -8.0  (Thursday)
There is a strange collective feeling that the Giants will turn it on at one point in the season. However, until that happens they are strictly a bet-against entity in the market. Chicago can apply pressure in the trenches, and that’s the Giants’ biggest weakness. Offensive line health often dictates the outcome of the game. Chicago has a full stock of starters, and Eli Manning is scrambling for answers – and his life – behind a tattered pass protection unit.

Detroit Lions -3.0 @ Cleveland Browns
I totally believe Calvin Johnson plays, and even the talented Joe Haden won’t be enough to stop him. Overall, I think that the Browns are a much better team than people give them credit for, but Detroit is a must-win situation after getting spanked by the Packers. Make no mistake, in terms of “just behind the contenders” teams go, the Lions are at the top of the heap. Cleveland is still somewhere in the back.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets -2.5
I think that the Steelers will enjoy the extra week of preparation and rest, while New York will be crunched for time after travelling back from the south following a gutsy win over Atlanta on Monday Night. This is a combination of Letdown Game and Short Week Syndrome for the Jets. I actually really like their defense, but Pittsburgh’s offense is well-balanced with Le’Veon Bell in fine form.

Green Bay Packers -3.0 @ Baltimore Ravens
This is probably one of the easiest games for the week to pick a side. Green Bay will just unload here. The Packers are as motivated as any legitimate contender, and Baltimore is simply not healthy enough to hang with the best teams in the NFL.

WAIT AND SEE

This is not the time to jump on these games. Wait and see what the public does, and injury reports could ultimately decide what happens here.

New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots -1.0
If the Patriots have Gronkowski, Ridley and Amendola back, they’re a force to be reckoned with. The Wednesday injury report is worth waiting on before you seize this line. My early inclination is Drew Brees against this shattered defensive unit, but you can never count Brady out…especially if he has his favorite weapons on board.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos -27.5
The public is going to have a standard or totally weird reaction to this betting line. Denver failed to cover their first line of the year in Week 5, and the top offense going up against the worst defense imaginable pretty much justifies this spread. Ultimately, I think people wildly underestimate how much Peyton wants to shatter the total points scored record (held by the 2007 Patriots with 589 points), so I believe this is a cover. But I’m willing to see if the public pulls this line down a bit out of sheer faith that Jaguars can do something sneaky.

STAY AWAYS

These lines are either traps, or just games involving betting factors that are entirely unpredictable.

Philadelphia Eagles -1.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Is Mike Glennon good? Is Vick even playing? How has Matt Barkley gone from a potential No. 1 pick to a guy who can’t beat out Nick Foles? Is Schiano ready to put the ball in Doug Martin’s hands? Can Tampa Bay’s strong defense stop Chip Kelly even remotely? There are just too many questions that can’t be answered until the game is played out. Traditionally, the Eagles own the Bucs. However, in the context of present day, I would stay away from this game.

Cincinnati Bengals -8 @ Buffalo Bills
I am literally inches away from hating Cincinnati forever. I never know when they’re going to show up. Same goes for the Bills. I still think both have the ingredients to do some damage to the postseason standings, but right now I’m just not in to betting on variables I don’t understand. Cincinnati is too erratic, and Thad Lewis could be good. You just can’t know, and pretending that you do is a fool’s errand.