2013 NBA Series Odds for the Playoffs with Predictions
by George Monroy - 4/18/2013
The NBA regular season came to a close with multiple teams still jockeying for position with one game left to play. The Los Angeles Lakers managed to squeak into the seventh spot in the Western Conference, while the Houston Rockets fell to the eighth and the Jazz were eliminated entirely. The Los Angeles Clippers earned home-court advantage with a close win over the Sacramento Kings.
The Eastern conference playoff picture was much clearer heading to the final night of the regular season as all eight playoff teams had secured a postseason berth nearly a week ago. And now that the playoffs are set to begin this weekend, it would be wise for NBA bettors to begin looking at 2013 lines, futures and series odds as soon as possible. The best way to get the better of the sportsbooks is to be well-researched on the wagers that you plan to make. Being informed does not mean that you will win every bet you make, but it will help your bankroll over the long run. Let’s take a look at the series prices for each first-round playoff matchup and make a few predictions and analysis.
(Note: odds come from Sportsbook.ag)
Western Conference
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder (-2000) versus (8) Houston Rockets (+1200): The Thunder are massive favorites over the Rockets and have the second-largest line of any first-round playoff matchup. The Rockets have very little chance to win this series, and the +1200 odds are essentially worthless. However, expect the team to keep games close and provide fans with a very exciting four- or five-game series.
(2) San Antonio Spurs (-1600) versus (7) LA Lakers (+1000): This matchup would have been more intriguing if Kobe Bryant had not been injured. Los Angeles has suddenly become a popular upset pick over the last few days because of San Antonio’s recent struggles, but do not let the media hype fool you. The Spurs are well-rested, better-coached, and simply have more talent than the Kobe-less Lakers.
(3) Denver Nuggets (-600) versus (6) Golden State Warriors (+400): The Warriors are showing excellent value getting +400 against the Nuggets. Denver has been dealing with injuries during the latter part of the season and could be primed for an upset. The Warriors may have been the one team that nobody wanted to play in the first round. Golden State is young, plays fast and can light up a scoreboard. Don’t be surprised if the Warriors pull of an upset.
(4) LA Clippers (-185) versus (5) Memphis Grizzlies (+165): This matchup may be the most contentious and entertaining series of the entire playoffs. Both teams match up well, dislike each other, and will be out for blood after last year’s seven-game battle during the first-round of the playoffs. This series is priced perfectly, and there is value on both sides. Expect the Clippers to advance in another entertaining six- or seven-game series, but do not be surprised at all if Memphis were to win.
Eastern Conference
(1) Miami Heat (-6000) versus (8) Milwaukee Bucks (+4000): The Heat are massive favorites over the Bucks. And even though +4000 looks to have some value, there is no point in even placing a speculative wager. LeBron James is in the middle of an epic Michael Jordan-like run and will not be stopped. The NBA is a superstar’s league, and it is unprecedented for a true all-time great player leading a historically great team to be eliminated in the first round.
(2) New York Knicks (-400) versus (7) Boston Celtics (+300): The Knicks have looked fantastic over the last month of the season and are being led by a Carmelo Anthony that has finally put all the pieces in his game together. However, the Knicks have been continual underachievers for so long that it is still hard to wager on them until they actually go out and prove something. Boston has value simply because of their championship pedigree. New York should win this series, but would anyone be surprised if they didn’t?
(3) Indiana Pacers (-600) versus (6) Atlanta Hawks (+400): The Pacers cooled off toward the end of the season, but they are still a quality team that can do some damage in the playoffs. The Hawks do not have the type of offense, or defense, for that matter, to win a seven-game series against the Pacers. There is very little value in getting Atlanta at +400.
(4) Brooklyn Nets (-165) versus (5) Chicago Bulls (+145): The Bulls have been a solid team without Derrick Rose, who is not planning on returning for the playoffs, while the Nets have been underachievers. This is a series that could go either way, but Chicago is showing some value getting +145. The Nets are a team that could easy shrink under the playoff pressure, while the Bulls are playing with no expectations and have had deep playoff runs before.
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Read more articles by George Monroy
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