March Madness Predictions: Reseeding the Brackets
by Nicholas Tolomeo - 3/19/2013
When seeding for the NCAA Tournament, the NCAA Selection Committee is hindered by certain guidelines. There are automatic qualifiers, there is a need to avoid conference rematches in the first two rounds, there are site locations to be aware of, etc. Las Vegas oddsmakers are bound by no such criteria when setting March Madness point spreads and NCAA Tournament future odds. It is not uncommon to see a No. 11 or No. 12 seed favored over a No. 6 or No. 5 seed.
Simply put, the NCAA Selection Committee cares what you did during the regular season, the oddsmakers care about what the talent on your squad indicates you can do during the postseason. Seeding means absolutely nothing to oddsmakers, and it should not mean anything to bettors, either.
Here are my reseeded teams, region by region, of how I think the tournament field would look if the NCAA was run by Las Vegas sports book owners. My adjusted seed is listed with their actual seed after the team in parentheses.
Midwest Region
- Louisville (1)
- Michigan State (3)
- Duke (2)
- Creighton (7)
- St. Louis (4)
- Memphis (6)
- Cincinnati (10)
- Oklahoma State (5)
- Saint Mary's (11)
- Oregon (12)
- Middle Tennessee State (11)
- Missouri (9)
- Colorado State (8)
- New Mexico State (13)
- Valparaiso (14)
- Albany (15)
- North Carolina A&T (16)
- Liberty (16)
There were a few screw jobs in the Midwest Region with Pac-12 Champion Oregon landing a No. 12 seed and No. 7 Creighton, the Missouri Valley Conference Champion, getting largely dismissed. The region is extremely top-heavy with Louisville, Michigan State and Duke all capable of making Final Four runs while the rest of the talent in the field is with strong mid-major teams like Creighton, St. Louis, Memphis, Saint Mary's and Middle Tennessee State. Michigan State gets the nod over Duke as the No. 2 because of the body of work in the Big Ten and Duke's shaky play down the stretch. Missouri seems to have received an inflated seed coming out of the SEC. Liberty (15-20) at No. 16 may be the worst NCAA Tournament team of the past 15 years.
West Region
- Ohio State (2)
- Gonzaga (1)
- Pitt (8)
- Wisconsin (5)
- New Mexico (3)
- Kansas State (4)
- Arizona (6)
- Iowa State (10)
- Notre Dame (7)
- Belmont (11)
- LaSalle (13)
- Wichita State (9)
- Boise State (13)
- Ole Miss (12)
- Harvard (14)
- Iona (15)
- Southern (16)
At first glance, it looks like the NCAA finally recognizes a mid-major program like Gonzaga while shafting a perennial contender like Pitt. On second glance it appears it is Gonzaga that received the shaft. Pitt has to be thrilled to get the best 8/9 matchup in the field against Wichita State and then get the worst of the No. 1 seeds in the third round. A potential Pitt/Gonzaga third-round game will have a point spread of no more than five points. Pitt is probably the best No. 8 seed since Butler in 2010. What makes things even tougher on Gonzaga is Big Ten powers, Ohio State and Wisconsin, lurking in the region. The Big Ten proved to be the top conference this season, and Ohio State and Wisconsin played for the championship on Sunday. New Mexico seems to be a No. 3 seed every year, and they deserve it with a regular-season and postseason Mountain West title, but they will get overlooked in this field of Gonzaga, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Pitt. Arizona has fallen off the map in late February and March, but don’t be surprised if a veteran Belmont group gives Arizona fits in the second round. Don't sip the kool-aid on Ole Miss just because they got hot, won the watered-down SEC Tournament and have a hot scorer. They are not a sustainable team in March. Another team to be weary of in the region is Notre Dame. Even with those neon green jerseys, it is going to be tough seeing them past the third round. Ohio State is the best team pound-for-pound in the region, but they need to look out for No. 15 Iona who has the second-best scoring offense in the country, scoring 81 points per game. The total in that game is 145.5; the highest for any Ohio State game this season.
South Region
- Kansas (1)
- Georgetown (2)
- Michigan (4)
- Florida (3)
- North Carolina (8)
- Minnesota (11)
- VCU (5)
- San Diego State (7)
- UCLA (6)
- Villanova (9)
- Akron (12)
- Oklahoma (10)
- South Dakota State (13)
- Florida Gulf Coast (15)
- Northwestern State (14)
- Western Kentucky (16)
The oddsmakers are in love with Florida for some reason. The Gators are favored to win the region, the only non-No. 1 seed in the field to be favored in their region, and they are seeded third. Florida played in an extremely soft SEC that it did not even win. They have a terrible penchant for losing close games. Kansas and Georgetown are clearly the better teams in this region, and Michigan is stronger top-to-bottom as well. Come March, VCU is just like Butler and Gonzaga, a wolf from a sheep conference. Minnesota has lost seven of its past 10 games, UCLA is without second-leading scorer Jordan Adams who was lost in the Pac-12 semifinals, Florida is 0-5 in games decided by six points or fewer and Michigan has fallen off the map, playing .500 basketball over their last 12 games. So who does that leave? Well, Florida-Gulf Coast is the best No. 15 seed in the field, and they will be a tough out against No. 2 Georgetown and an excellent value at +13. The Florida-Gulf Coast Eagles beat Miami-Florida by 12 back on Nov. 13, and they are 4-0 ATS this season (only four of their games had point spreads, regular season versus Duke and three conference tournament games). In terms of winning the region, it looks like a two-horse race between Kansas and Georgetown.
East Region
- Indiana (1)
- Syracuse (4)
- Miami-Florida (2)
- N.C. State (8)
- Butler (6)
- Illinois (7)
- California (12)
- UNLV (5)
- Marquette (3)
- Davidson (14)
- Bucknell (11)
- Temple (9)
- Colorado (10)
- Pacific (5)
- Montana (13)
- LIU Brooklyn (16)
- James Madison (16)
Indiana had a shot at the No. 1 overall seed but instead landed in the East Region and in a pretty favorable bracket. Miami-Florida is the first ACC team to win the regular season and postseason title and not earn a No. 1 seed, but that seems just; the Hurricanes have plenty of holes in their game. They are another No. 2 seed who should be on upset alert, Pacific has won seven in a row and they are 5-1 on neutral courts this year. Butler is lurking at No. 6, but they draw a very difficult matchup with Bucknell. Potential sleepers in the field are N.C. State, Illinois and California. Marquette might be the worst No. 3 seed in recent memory. They are upset alert immediately as they are only a 3.5-point favorite against No. 14 Davidson, who hasn’t lost since Jan. 14. UNLV has the talent to make a run, but even though they are No. 5 they will be playing in No. 12 California's backyard in the second round although they have already won at California this year (76-75 on Dec. 9).
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