Doc's Sports Fourth Down and Inches
by Max Powers - 9/24/2013
Heading into Week 5 of the college football season, Doc’s Sports is on a tear with a 19-8 record overall that includes a perfect 4-0 record on our top plays this season, which were all blowout wins. This all translates to a healthy profit of $4,780 for our $100 bettors as we are +51 units on the year. The amazing thing about our college picks so far is that we were in a position to win seven of the eight games we lost. Given this kind of winning streak, Doc’s Sports decided to pull the trigger on our 7-unit College Football Game of the Year, which we feel is going to be the strongest play of the season so far.
We have a number of different football packages available for this week’s matchups that include this game, so I encourage you to call me at our Wisconsin office (800) 356-9182 or our Las Vegas office (866) 238-6696. We want you along for the ride as everything has set up perfectly to keep this amazing streak going with a fifth straight win on a top play.
Recapping last week’s selections, our top play for Saturday’s college state was Wyoming (-5) over Air Force. Given that most of our customers probably knew very little about the Cowboys heading into this matchup, I am sure there was cause for concern when they fell behind 7-0 early in the first quarter. Many of you may have even gone to bed since the game was a late start on the East Coast and missed the chain of events that saw Wyoming crush the Falcons by a final score of 56-23. This score could have been much worse, but the Cowboys decided to rein things in after scoring 42 points in the first half. Nobody is going to confuse Wyoming with some of the better defensive teams in Division IA, but quarterback Brett Smith is one of the best players in the country, and I knew he would be able to exploit a terrible Air Force secondary. The Cowboys expect to score every time they touch the ball, and a punt would be the equivalent of a broken serve in tennis. The only thing that was broken in the game was the Falcons’ pride.
Sticking with a good thing, I like Wyoming again this week against Texas State. It is favored by 11 points on the road, but to me this number is not nearly high enough. As for the Falcons, I would continue to go against them against teams that can throw the ball. It looks like it is going to be a long season for Air Force fans with no trip to a bowl game this year.
Anyone who has profited from our selections may have noticed that we have been riding big underdogs as of late and having great success with this plan. The strategy that we employ in our selections is finding undervalued teams that are somewhat respectable on defense and avoid turnovers on offense. They do not have to play defense like LSU, but they need to avoid giving up big plays and putting the offense in a hole where it has to go the length of the field to score.
A perfect example of this was the use of Connecticut and Massachusetts in last week’s selections. Both of these games were never in doubt despite a pitiful performance on offense by each team early in the contest. A stout defense was able to keep them in the game and cover against the spread. The Huskies actually had a good chance to win against Michigan, but instead they suffered their third straight home loss. They now go on the road for the first time this season against Buffalo as a slight underdog.
So which teams fits into this category this week? If you ask me, one would be the West Virginia Mountaineers. They are getting 19 points at home against a so-so Oklahoma State team, which seems like a gift. I look for West Virginia to play much better this Saturday after last week’s 37-0 loss to Maryland.
Last week’s college football schedule was a dog in terms of competitive games, but this week’s schedule is much more inviting for watching some solid matchups. The featured game takes us to the SEC for the LSU vs. Georgia game in Athens in a battle between West and East Division powers. Both teams are still in line for a trip to the BCS Championship Game, and it will be interesting to see how the Tigers’ offense has improved under new offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. This guy has a dubious record with some of his previous teams (Baltimore fired him mid-season last year and won the Super Bowl), but any decent offensive mind should be able to improve what has been the root cause of LSU’s downfall in recent years: the offense. I do not have a feel for the outcome of this game, but it should be a good one to watch.
The Big Ten takes center stage with Wisconsin on the road against Ohio State. The winner of this game will all but certainly win the Big Ten Leaders Division this year. The Badgers’ new head coach, Gary Anderson, will face Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes after the two formed a strong friendship working together in Utah. Both teams are coming off blowout wins last week, and the big news heading into this game is the expected return of Ohio State quarterback Braxton Miller for this game. This may not necessarily be an upgrade after watching the splendid job that Kenny Guiton has done running the offense the last couple of games. As expected, the Buckeyes are around a touchdown favorite, and while they may be the better all-around team, Wisconsin does not make a habit of getting blown out in games like this. We will most likely pass on this one.
We must now turn to the Achilles heel this season for not just us, but for most handicappers in the country; the NFL! I stated last week that we would be lowering the units for our NFL selections, and that turned out to be a good thing with a 1-3-1 mark in Week 3. In reality we could have easily went 5-0 with four games coming down to the wire. When the smoke cleared, we were on the wrong end of three with a fortunate push in the fourth contest. I have no real hard-and-fast reason for the poor record, but we will continue to work hard to get out of this slump, starting with this week’s picks. We still plan to keep the units low since we have a much better feel for college football at the moment.
Somewhere in heaven Doc is smiling as he also had a better feel for college football during his 42 years in the business. The NFL is the most popular sport to bet on, but it also has the sharpest lines. Most of the time the spread is not decided until late in the game, which is not for the faint of heart. It still amazes me how much more popular betting the NFL on Sunday is as compared to college football on Saturday. To me, I would just rather win regardless of the sport. Cashing in on an NHL game is still a much better outcome than a close loss in the NFL.
A perfect example of the frustration you face in trying to figure out the NFL is a 0-3 start by both the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Giants. These teams are considered royalty in the NFL, but both look terrible at the moment. This begs the question: does either team have a chance to turn it around? Maybe the Giants, since 8-8 may win the NFL East, but I would be shocked if Pittsburgh makes a run. It just does not have any big playmakers besides their quarterback, and a rash of injuries have already taken their toll.
In closing, this will be another profitable week for us, highlighted by our 7-unit College Football Game of the Year. Our four previous top plays this season have all been blowouts:
- 6-UNIT PLAY WINS ON 8/31 (WASHINGTON OVER BOISE STATE)
- 5-UNIT PLAY WINS ON 9/7 (GEORGIA OVER SOUTH CAROLINA)
- 7-UNIT PLAY WINS ON 9/14 (MARYLAND OVER UCONN)
- 5-UNIT PLAY WINS ON 9/21 (WYOMING OVER AIR FORCE)
This means that now is the time to jump on board with a veteran handicapper to score big on this game as well as our other selections for the week. Please call us for complete details about this week’s card, or you can sign-up online.
Best of Luck,
Max Powers
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