It took 11 weeks of college football to shake up the rankings at the top of the heap, but it finally happened with Oregon’s loss to Stanford last Thursday night. I had stated all season long that the Cardinal had been way too conservative with their offensive game plan in big games. I also stated that I did not believe they would be able to run the ball against Oregon, but that was certainly the case in this one-sided affair.

The game started with the Ducks moving the ball down the field, but after failing to convert on a questionable fourth down attempt instead of taking the chip-shot field, all the momentum swung in Stanford’s favor until late in the fourth quarter. The Ducks could not get the Cardinal off the field, especially on third down, in which they converted on 14-of-21 attempts. Amazingly enough, Oregon still had a chance to win this game with just over two minutes to play, and if it would have recovered the second onside kick, I believe it would have marched down the field and scored to take a one-point lead.

It was not meant to be, and now Stanford is in the driver seat in the Pac-12 North with a great chance to return to the Rose Bowl come January. It still has a stern test this week against USC. Given the fact that the Cardinal are only favored by three points, it would not be too big of a surprise if they get tripped up this weekend against a Trojans’ defense that knows how to stop the run.

As for the Ducks, this was another devastating loss that may end up setting this program back for years. Many college football experts have gone on record stating that this type of offense cannot win games on a consistent basis. Even if Oregon would have squeezed out that one-point win, I do not think it would have been enough to pass Florida State in the BCS standings since everyone who watched this game realized just how poor this team played. This setback also took its toll on quarterback Marcus Mariota as far as his Heisman chances and overall NFL draft stock as questions over his ability to take care of the ball will undoubtedly arise.

What we are now left with is a two-team race for the BCS Championship Game, with Alabama and Florida State controlling their own destiny. If either one of these teams does trip up, an undefeated Ohio State or Baylor are firmly in place to take their spot. The Bears cemented their new-found spot in the BCS Top 5 with their dominating victory over Oklahoma, and I can easily see them climbing past Stanford at No. 4 if they continue to win. Mark my words, no one-loss team will be able to stay above an undefeated team from any of the BCS Conferences this year.

When it came to last week’s selections, we turned in another break-even performance, but we did cash in on both our 6-unit college football play of the week and our annual Big Ten Game of the Year, which was an 8-unit selection. All week long I went back and forth between the Wisconsin game and the Minnesota game since I loved both teams. They were both playing at home, and after debating all week until Thursday afternoon, I finally decided to pull the trigger on the Badgers for our Big Ten Game of the Year while making the Golden Gophers a strong 6-unit play.

The main reason for going with Wisconsin over BYU was the simple fact that it was a much better all-around team. I did not feel the Cougars would be able to effectively move the ball on offense as well as hold up on defense for all four quarters of this game. This proved to be the case, with the Badgers holding a 17-point lead late in the game. That lead should have been greater if quarterback Joel Stave would have played to form. He actually played rather poorly, which helped open things up to a backdoor cover, which would have been a devastating result.

 A Wisconsin stand on the final play of the game finally sealed the deal in the one featured game that Doc’s pride itself on winning each year! The Badgers have a very easy schedule the rest of the way, and it will be interesting to see how high they can climb in the standings for a possible bid to a BCS bowl. If Ohio State somehow makes its way into the BCS Championship Game, I do not think the Rose Bowl will be all that thrilled about having Wisconsin back for a fourth straight year. BYU’s loss was a good lesson for West Coast teams playing Big Ten teams on the road. Oftentimes they will struggle to match up with the conference’s size advantage at the line of scrimmage, which was certainly the case on Saturday.

The line on this game opened at 7.5 points but jumped to 9.5 points by kickoff once word got out it was our Big Ten Game of the Year. While quite a few customers contacted us about the jump in the spread and wondered if they should still make the play, and the simple answer to that question was “yes”! You should always try and get the best possible line, but you also have to keep in mind that eight and nine are not key spreads in football when it comes to the final score. The key numbers that you need be aware of are 3-7-10-14. This is especially true for the NFL, since games are generally longer and more plays allow for more points.

As for the Minnesota game, had I known Penn State would turn over the football on the first play from scrimmage I would have definitely used this game as our top play. This game ended up being much closer than what the final score suggests, especially considering how many times the Nittany Lions shot themselves in the foot. Freshman quarterbacks have a tendency to struggle on the road, and that has been the case all season long with this team. Penn State is 0-3 in true road games, and all three losses have been by double-digits.
It also helps that this Minnesota team has played extremely well since Coach Jerry Kill took a leave of absence. The Gophers are now 8-2 on the season, but they face a brutal two-game stretch over the next two weeks with Wisconsin at home and a road game against Michigan State. An upset in either one of these games will likely earn them a spot in a New Year’s Day bowl game. Minnesota may still play on Jan.1 with an 8-4 record since the Big Ten is likely to have trouble filling its allotted eight-game bowl schedule with eligible teams.

The correct call in both of these games continued our domination this season in top plays of five units or more. We are now 8-3 on the year in selections such as these, which adds up to +39 units. This would equate to a $3,710 profit for our $100 bettors.

In other action in the Big Ten last week, the featured game pitted Nebraska on the road against Michigan, a team that has not lost at home under Coach Brady Hoke. That run ended on Saturday after a late score by the Cornhuskers lifted them to a17-13 victory over the Wolverines. Michigan quarterback Devin Gardner continues to take a pounding in the pocket, and he ended the day with negative yardage running the ball when you factor the sacks in the final total. This is one of those teams that makes you scratch your head as they appear to have gotten much worse in the third season of Hoke’s tenure with the team. Part of the reason is that a few of the Wolverines’ top recruits have not panned out. Jason Whitlock from ESPN wrote a good article about this, so be sure to check it out if you have the time.

As for Nebraska, it now controls its own destiny starting with this Saturday’s game against Michigan State, which will all but decide the Legends Division title. I am sure that every true fan of college football will be pulling for the Spartans in this contest to set up a classic showdown with Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. This should be the case with Michigan State listed as a 6.5-point road favorite against Nebraska. I for one do not want to see the Cornhuskers in the title game after last season’s debacle in which they gave up 70 points to a very average Wisconsin team.

We are right back at it this week with another 6-unit top play in college football. This is a game that features two teams headed in opposite directions, and I am confident that this selection will find the winner’s circle just like so many of our other top plays already have this year.

We have many different packages that include this game, so for complete details please give me a call in our Wisconsin office at (800) 356-9182.

Also do not forget that Doc’s Sports College Basketball selection service starts this Saturday, Nov. 16. We are coming off back-to-back outstanding seasons which have netted $18,810 for our $100 bettors. You can view our complete 2011-12 record by clicking here and our 2012-13 record by clicking here

Best of luck this weekend,

Max Powers