Doc's Sports Fourth Down and Inches
by Max Powers - 9/3/2013
Week 1 of the College Football Season is in the books, and what a week it was with a perfect 7-0 record for Doc’s selections. This amazing start translated to a healthy profit of $2600 for our $100 bettors. The highlight of our picks was Washington’s 38-6 rout of Boise State as a 3.5-point home favorite as a 6-unit play. Sometimes luck is all you need after Texas Tech and SMU combined for three touchdowns in the final 5:40 of the fourth quarter to take that game “over” the 63-point line.
Luck was also on our side in Toledo covering a 21-point spread on the road against Florida, but that is oftentimes what you need to turn a good weekend into a monster weekend. The key to success over the course of the entire season is the ability to be on the right side of those close calls like we were a few times during this amazing run. It is record-setting days like this that make all the hard work that goes into breaking down the matchups worth the effort. I cannot help but believe that my mentor and founder of Doc’s Sports, Doc, is smiling down on us from heaven. He remains a major part of our handicapping success through the invaluable training he provided in both style and technique.
That being said, you have to always keep in mind that weekends like this may only come around once every couple years, so let us enjoy this success, but at the same time, let us not be foolish in the upcoming weeks with any unnecessary risky plays. Remember to stick with Doc’s Unit Betting System as well as the set amount you play for each unit bet. If you were betting $100 a unit during last week’s incredible run, do not raise the stakes to a $1000 a unit this week. It is a long season, and we are bound to go through some ups and downs along the way. This is why we encourage our customers to sign up for the full season because you never when a hot streak might occur. Waiting on a handicapper to get hot before jumping on the bandwagon does not usually work out to well. Riding him over the course of the next five or six months is a much more solid plan to generating a healthy return on investment.
Looking back at Week 1 of the college season, you have to give credit to Georgia and Clemson for scheduling a tough matchup considering that most of the top teams in the nation pad their schedule with mid-majors and Division IAA teams for their season opener. This was an important game for both teams as in the past both coaches have lacked big wins during the course of the season. Therefore, it took guts to roll the dice like this. Georgia came into this showdown as possibly the best offensive team in the country, and it did not disappoint with 545 yards of total offense.
The question now with the Bulldogs lies in a defense that had no answer for Clemson quarterback Tajh Boyd. This forced the offense into playing catch up the whole night, which does not play to its strength. Georgia still likely controls its own destiny in the SEC East, but it could be knocked out of the division race with a loss this week against South Carolina. The winner of this game will likely go on to win the East and play in the SEC title game in Atlanta this December. Stay tuned as we will release our selection for this game later this week.
A game that we loved and targeted from the start was Washington playing at home at Husky Stadium against Boise. Everything worked out like a charm with a dominating win. While many people in the media along with a number of football experts penciled in another double-digit winning season for the Broncos, my research told me that a good chunk of talent was gone from last year’s team. They are very young on defense, which was clearly exposed by Washington quarterback Keith Price. I was amazed that the Huskies had only scored 10 points by halftime, but they wore Boise State’s defense down to run away with things in the second half. There is no doubt that WSU looked impressive in its debut, but some question marks of its own on defense will work to limit this team to eight or nine wins this year.
We already talked about one of two marquee games on this week’s schedule (South Carolina vs. Georgia), so let us take a closer look at Notre Dame verse Michigan clash. This will be the last meeting between these two long-time rivals at the Big House for the foreseeable future in light of Notre Dame’s five-game commitment to play teams in the ACC. The underdog was the best play for most of these matchups in the past, but that has changed with Michigan winning the last three games at home both straight up and against the spread. The Irish scored a 13-6 victory last season as 6.5-point home favorites on their way to playing in the BCS Championship Game.
Notre Dame is going to have to play better than it did against Temple last week to end this road losing streak to the Wolverines. They gave up a ton of yardage to the Owls but were fortunate when it came to special teams, which were instrumental in securing the win. I have to once again side with the home team in this Saturday’s matchup. Michigan is primed to pound the Irish as head coach Brady Hoke will have his team fired up about Notre Dame’s decision to let this time-honored rivalry coming to an end.
In other Big Ten action, Northwestern paid the price in last Saturday’s 44-30 victory over Cal with three key players questionable for this week’s home game against Syracuse, including QB Kain Colter. I would have jumped all over the Cats this week against Syracuse if they were at full strength. I was not impressed with the Orange as one of our selections in Week 1, but we caught a huge break when Penn State suspended its quarterback for a half, which allowed them to hang around long enough to earn a cover as an eight-point home underdog.
Turning to the NFL, it is opening week, and Doc’s has posted a solid track record in this spot over the last decade. My hometown Packers did not look so good in their final preseason game against Kansas City in what has turned into a colossal waste of time. The end result was a complete overhaul at the back-up quarterback position, with Seneca Wallace and Scott Tolzien coming over from San Francisco, which just so happens to be their opening day opponent.
The level of weak play in Week 4 of the preseason makes a stronger case for an 18-game regular season schedule and just two preseason games. Granted, 16 regular season games and just two preseason games would probably make the most sense, but I would still opt for an 18-2 format.
I hope you had a great holiday weekend and look forward to a full week of football starting on Thursday. As always, feel free to contact me with any information that you might have about your hometown teams. We are all in this together, and let’s have another great week.
Sincerely,
Max Powers
Doc’s Sports
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