Doc's Sports Fourth Down and Inches
by Max Powers - 11/19/2013
We needed Lady Luck on our side last week for our selection service, and she came through with flying colors. Things started off on a rough note with a loss right off the bat in Thursday night’s Marshall vs. Tulsa game. We went with the Thundering Herd as 13-point favorites and appeared to be in great shape after they jumped out to a 21-0 lead. They continued to light up the scoreboard, but multiple turnovers allowed Tulsa to hang around in a 45-34 final that failed to cover the spread.
You have to wonder how this game stayed so close with a 619-345 edge in total yards, but that is what five turnovers will do to you. This just goes to show that no game should ever be considered a “lock”. It is impossible to predict turnovers, which oftentimes turn out to be game-changers. That is why it is always a challenge handicapping football.
Fortunately, that was our lone blemish in 10 selections that resulted in an 8-1-1 record. We went a perfect 5-0 on Saturday in college football and posted a 3-0-1 record on Sunday in the NFL. The net result was +27 units, which equated to a $2,660 profit for our $100 bettors.
Doc’s continues to dominate the books in college football this season as a Top 5 nationally ranked handicapper behind an overall record of 49-31. We are +86 units on the year for a return of $6,840 for our $100 bettors. One of our biggest returns as been the selections for our top plays. We are an outstanding 13-2 on our top college football selections, which puts us up 50 units, or $4,810 overall. We decided to lower the season price in football for the remainder of the schedule, so now is a great time for you to jump on board with a veteran handicapper with more than 42 years of experience.
This past week we released two top play selections, and both the found the winner’s circle. Last Friday we released a 5-unit play on UCLA, and the Bruins did not let us down. They jumped all over Washington right out of the gate, but they had us sweating a bit when the Huskies made things interesting in the third quarter on a UCLA turnover. The big break came when Washington quarterback Keith Price left the game with a shoulder injury. His backup failed to rally the team, and the Bruins held on for the 10-point victory.
That victory sets up a huge showdown in the Pac-12 South Division this week, with UCLA hosting Arizona State. The winner will earn the right to take on Oregon in Eugene in the conference championship game. The Sun Devils come into this matchup as road favorites behind an explosive offense. However, the Bruins are the better all-around team.
The second top play last week was six units on the San Diego State Aztecs over the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. The Aztecs struggled for most of the game and looked inept on offense. Neither team could move the football, and the biggest play was a fluke punt that bounced off the leg of a San Diego State player to set up a Warriors’ score. There is a reason why Hawaii is winless this season as the Aztecs did just enough to send this game into overtime with a 21-21 tie in regulation. Given that the spread was greater than three points, we needed a San Diego State touchdown to cover and win. The Aztecs got the ball first and scored on just three running plays from the Warriors’ 25-yard line. San Diego State’s defense rose to the occasion by shutting Hawaii down on four consecutive plays to end the game.
This victory created a $1,300 swing that turned a profitable week into a monster week!
I do not have any shame in cashing in on a game like this as I have always said that luck is still a very important part of gambling. We have had some games go the other way as well. I do not even need to mention this season’s Georgia vs. Auburn game as we all know how that game turned out!
Moving over to the Big Ten, Michigan State took care of business this past Saturday to set up an epic battle between the Spartans and the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game barring anything crazy happening the next few weeks. The Spartans just need to win one of their two remaining games to clinch the Legends Division, and they are likely to lock things up this week against Northwestern. The Wildcats can’t buy a break as of late and would need to win out just to become bowl eligible after a 4-0 start.
Michigan State entered last week’s game as more than a touchdown favorite and covered with ease with the help of an inexperienced Nebraska quarterback and five turnovers. Give credit to the Cornhuskers for moving the ball on the ground with 182 yards rushing, but that was not enough to overcome all of their mistakes. Things may have been closer if Taylor Martinez would have played, but in the end it was a 13-point Michigan State victory that officially puts Coach Bo Pellini on the hot seat in Nebraska. AD Shawn Eichorst may have no choice to make a change at coach with a team has no identity on offense and a defense that has been hit-or-miss all season long. The fans in the land of corn have to realize that this is not the same job it was during the 20th Century. The days when Nebraska could just line up and run over teams is long gone.
Before the lines were released for this week’s games, we were considering using Wisconsin as a selection on the road against Minnesota, but with the opening spread set at 15 points we quickly decided to back off. Minnesota has a strong identity on defense, and it should be able to contain Wisconsin’s running game. This means that Badgers’ quarterback Joel Stave will have to make some plays in the passing game for Wisconsin to be successful. Had the line opened around 10 points, it would have been a solid play, but laying 15 points on the road is just too big of a stretch. The Golden Gophers did get a number of breaks against Penn State last time out, and ever since Coach Kill has been confined to the press box they have been able to create their own luck to help generate some wins.
As previously mentioned, we went 3-0-1 in the NFL last Sunday, which was one of our better efforts this season. Is it me, or does it appear that almost every NFL game this season has gone down to the wire in terms of the pointspread? There is just so much parity in the league, and with 16 games, at the most, to choose from each week, the lines have become incredibly sharp.
We were on easy street when Philadelphia opened up a 24-0 lead against Washington, but we ended up biting our nails until the final gun with the Redskins just one more touchdown and two-point conversion from tying things up. Robert Griffin III looked lost for most of the game, but after tightening things up on a couple of long pass plays, he had his team in position to pull off a miraculous comeback with under a minute to play. An ill-advised pass to the end zone that was picked off preserved the win. This is starting to become an all-too-familiar theme for the second-year phenom.
One of our other NFL selections was New Orleans minus three points over San Francisco. The Saints dominated a good portion of this game, but this is yet another perfect example of how turnovers work to keep a game close. The 49ers scored 17 points off of New Orleans’ miscues, and the Saints blew a golden opportunity to get seven back when Corey White fumbled a Colin Kaepernick interception into the end zone. The Saints hung on to win on a last-second field goal, which had most San Francisco fans harping back to a roughing the passer call that nullified a recovered fumble that would have sealed the win. The reality was that Drew Brees was hit around the neck and suffered a cut on his mouth, and that will get called almost every time. Quarterbacks are what makes this league so popular, and one only has to look at the situation in Green Bay to see how a team can completely fall apart when their starter goes down.
We have all intentions of coming back this week with another 6-unit selection in college football this Saturday. To receive this selection along with our entire weekend card be sure to sign-up for one of the many football packages we currently offer. Our recent success (+27 units last week) speaks for itself!
Sincerely
Max Powers
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