Doc's Sports Fourth Down and Inches
by Max Powers - 10/29/2013
We just completed Week 9 of the college football season and Week 8 in the NFL, and it was the pros that saved our tail for a change. We started the weekend going 0-4, but by the time Sunday’s games were in the book we had rebounded with a 5-5 record overall with the only losses coming from the juice on the picks.
I would have to admit that I am actually very pleased with how the week ended up after such a bad start. While we cannot always be happy with a .500 mark, it is the ability to avoid heavy losses that is an important part of handicapping. It ultimately allows us to stay the course and continue to march on. Losing weeks are killers and can do some long-term damage to the bankroll if they start to pile up, but just like 8-1 records happen from time to time, so does the opposite.
After crossing the midway point of the football season we are +$4,500 (college and NFL) on our selections, and we can guarantee that we will continue to do our best to increase this total on a weekly basis. I have a very strong feeling that it will start this Saturday with the release of our annual Big Ten Game of the Year, which will be an 8-unit play. Everything continues to fall perfectly into place for this selection, and we remain confident that it will find the winner’s circle. Doc’s has already gone 8-2 this season on our top plays for college football, which have all been 5-unit-or-higher picks.
I would like to share a bit of history surrounding this Big Ten Game of the Year. When Doc Moseman decided to start this company back in 1972, it was this game that got our company recognized on a national level. He hit on three of his first four selections, which was just a warm up for an amazing string of cashing in on 19 straight winners for this game. During this incredible run, the line on his selection would skyrocket, and oftentimes bettors who got in on the action late would have to lay as many as seven to 10 points more than the opening spread.
This was back in the day before the Internet and mobile devices, so the only means of communicating this selection was over the phone. Our main office in Wisconsin was a madhouse as the staff would have a 10-minute time frame to handle as many as 250 callers looking for this game. Doc made a habit of holding back the pick until its set release, and even the staff had no idea what he had up his sleeve. He had one customer offer him $10,000 for the early inside information on the play, but Doc would have no part of it.
Once news of the release reached Las Vegas, it would be a mad dash to the betting window before the books could adjust. They were not all connected like they are today, so a savvy gambler could search the strip to get the best line he could for this game. The truly amazing thing about this 19-year winning streak is that the line movement only played a role in the final outcome of just two the games. Most times Doc selected a big favorite, and the game would never be in doubt from the opening kickoff with a dominant win. He did recall that luck may have had a thing or two to do with a couple of the wins, but as we all know, that is part of handicapping.
The streak finally came to an end in the early 90s, and while Doc was on the wrong side of this game three years in a row during the rest of that decade, he still rebounded with a couple of big wins to close out the 20th Century. Since then, the game has not performed nearly as well, and in the past 10 years that I have been with the company there is very little line movement on the selection as compared to year’s past. Sports betting now exists in an era where information is widely available, and the lines are much sharper. That being said, we are all committed to honoring Doc’s legacy by starting a new winning streak with this year’s game. Luck still needs to play a part in any Game of the Year selection, but all the stats point to this team coming up big!
We offer quite a few different packages that include this weekend’s Big Ten Game of the Year so please call me direct at our Wisconsin office (800) 356-9182 or our Las Vegas office (866) 238-6696.
Taking a brief look at last week’s results, our top play in college football was never in doubt with Texas rolling over TCU 30-7 as a two-point underdog on the road. Despite the fact that the Horned Frogs had quarterback Casey Pachall back in the starting lineup, the results were the same with an offense that has struggled all season long. He is still a major upgrade to Trevone Boykin, but the rust from an extended layoff was obvious as he was clearly out of sync with his receivers. I will admit that some clients expressed concern about this pick with Pachall in the game as it began to set itself up as a trap, but we remained confident that Texas was still the better all-around team regardless of who TCU had under center.
As I stated time and time before, I will never tell you on the phone or via email to load up on a game. There are just too many variables that can occur, and my advice is to always stick with the designated unit system bet for any selection that we release. A good example of this was Oklahoma State’s win over TCU. The Cowboys should have won this game by 30 points, but four turnovers and two missed chip-shot field goals kept things a bit too close for comfort. The bottom line is that they still covered the spread. However, the final score was much closer than what it should have been.
The Longhorns endured a couple of bad losses earlier in the year, but this team continues to get better with every game it plays. The fans and media are no longer calling for Mack Brown’s head even though injuries played a big role in those early setbacks. Texas remains a very talented team, and it is getting healthy at just the right time. We have been more than happy to take full advantage of the oddsmakers’ failure to catch up with their spreads. The lines against Oklahoma and TCU were gifts, and this week the Longhorns are installed as 28-point favorites at home against Kanas, which in my opinion is still not enough points!
The opening lines in the Big Ten this week point to a wide separation in talent, with five of the six games featuring touchdown or greater spread. The race in the Leaders Division is all but locked up, with Ohio State holding a game and a half lead on Wisconsin while also holding the tie breaker as a result of its head-to-head win over the Badgers earlier this year. The Legends Division is still up for grabs. However, if Michigan State beats Michigan this Saturday at home, the Spartans will be the clear front-runner to earn the other spot in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Both of these teams have shown flashes of greatness this season, and at other times they have looked painfully lethargic. Michigan State has dominated the series in recent years, but Michigan ended that streak last year in Ann Arbor by winning 12-10 on a late field goal.
You have to hand it to Minnesota after pulling off back-to-back straight up victories over Northwestern and Nebraska despite being an underdog in both games. What makes this run even more impressive is that they are doing it with an interim coach after Jerry Kill took a leave of absence from the day-to-day affairs of the team to receive treatment for his elliptic seizures. The big question this week is can the Gophers make it three in a row. They face an Indiana offense that can light up the scoreboard, but the Hoosiers also have a defense that has allowing a ton of points so far.
That is it for now and, as I stated numerous times before, this is one of our favorite weeks of the entire football season. Our 8-Unit play on this year’s Big Ten Game of the Year goes this Saturday, and we would love to have you on board for the ride. We are 8-2 on our college football top plays and 38-23 overall this season for all our college football picks, which adds up to +67 units. This has equated to a profit of $5,280 for our $100 bettors.
Best of Luck –
Max Powers
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