College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 11/6/2013
Not much action for the Ferringo 15 last week as half of our clubs had Saturday off. The ones that did play went 5-3 against the spread. But if you discount the Florida Atlantic-Tulane game, which featured two of our F-15 teams, the official mark was a tidy 4-2 for the weekend.
It’s not much. But we’ll take it.
The teams in the Ferringo 15 are 62-51 ATS in the weeks they have shown up in this space. Over the past two seasons the teams in our college football betting power rankings have gone 137-94 ATS, which is good for an outstanding 59.2 percent winning rate with 231 trials. Hopefully we can add to the resume this week.
The Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings; a rating of the 15 teams that hold the most value in college football betting at the moment. It is a reflection of past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread in college football. As teams play and betting markets adjust, so to does the perceived “value” of the teams on the list. Consider the Ferringo 15 a list of stocks whose values will fluctuate based on how they perform and also how the public’s expectations for them change.
Last year no college football betting system in the country was a better bet in the last two months than the Ferringo 15. The F-15 turned a profit in eight of the final nine weeks of the regular season, and the teams on this list went an amazing 75-43-1 against the spread. The top six teams on the Ferringo 15 were a staggering 35-11-1 ATS in the last nine weeks of the season.
Here is my 2013 Ferringo 15 College Football Rankings (all records are ATS against the closing line):
1. Oregon (7-1) – This is it. Oregon will be the No. 1 team in the country next Monday if they can beat Stanford in what is one of the biggest games of the year in college football. Three of every four bets in this game has come down for Oregon, and the spread has spiked from 7.5 to 10.0. Oregon has revenge for a 17-14 loss to the Cardinal last year, in Autzen, as an 18-point favorite. The Ducks won 53-30 in their last trip to Stanford, and Oregon is actually 4-1 straight up and ATS in the last five games there. Oregon is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and they have won eight of those games straight up.
2. Wisconsin (7-0-1) – While Oregon is fighting for No. 1 in the polls, Wisconsin continues to make its case as the best bet in the country. And unlike the Ducks, the Badgers are doing it silently. Wisconsin has barely cracked the Top 25 despite their unblemished ATS record. UW will have its hands full with BYU this weekend, and the visitors are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games. But Wisconsin is 19-7-1 ATS at home, and new head coach (Mark) Anderson is used to game planning for BYU. He faced them six times while at Utah State, and while he only won one of those games, he actually covered the last four meetings.
3. Houston (7-1) – Houston won but couldn’t beat the number against South Florida last week, snapping their ATS winning streak at nine straight. The Cougars are playing off their usual surface in this game, playing on grass for the first time this year. Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games and is actually 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on grass. But Houston is also just 9-19 ATS on the road against a team with a winning home record.
4. Baylor (6-1) – Huge game for the Bears on Thursday night in primetime. The Bears are hosting Oklahoma and are hefty 15-point favorites. This is the most they have ever been favored over the Sooners. Baylor’s 1-21 straight up record against Oklahoma probably has something to do with that. The two teams have split the last two meetings, with the home team winning by a touchdown. Baylor is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall. But the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight in this series.
5. Florida Atlantic (7-1) – The Owls have a week off after their fluke come-from-behind win over Tulane last week. This program has been thrown into some turmoil after the unceremonious dismissal of former head coach Carl Pelini after he was busted allegedly smoking weed at a party. Ah, Florida.
6. Florida State (7-1) – I’d have to say that I am in line with the people that think that Florida State should be No. 1 in the country right now. FSU’s resume is simply much, much more impressive than Alabama’s this year. But the bobblehead media is still pushing the myth of SEC dominance, and people are lapping it up. Florida State is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight trips to Wake Forest. But I get the impression they can name their score this week.
7. Missouri (7-2) – The Tigers did a brilliant job bouncing back from their gut-wrenching loss to South Carolina. They hammered Tennessee last week, 31-3. Now they have to adjust to life on the road with a big target on their back. After a three-game homestand, the Tigers travel to Kentucky as two-touchdown favorites. UK has lost at home by 41 to Alabama, by 17 to Florida and by 14 to Louisville. This week can be a measuring stick for the Tigers, who are taking over 80 percent of the action.
8. Washington State (6-3) – It was a disappointing effort on national television for the Cougars last Thursday night. They are off this week, giving them over two weeks to prepare for a trip to Arizona.
9. Buffalo (7-2) – The Bulls dominated a very good Ohio team on Tuesday night for another blowout win. It is funny to think that Buffalo’s current seven-game winning streak began with a lackluster overtime win over FCS Stony Brook. Since then the Bulls have won six straight by at least 20 points per game. They won’t have time to rest, though; the Bulls have to travel to Toledo – which is only one game off the pace in the MAC West – next Tuesday in a big-time showdown.
10. Central Florida (6-1) – No. 21 Central Florida passed its first major test of the season with flying colors, beating Louisville on the road last month. Now it is time for their second statement game - hosting former CUSA rival Houston this Saturday. Central Florida is off a bye, and they have won three of four from Houston. However, the three Central Florida wins have come by an average of just 4.7 points per game. The public actually favors Houston in this game, with the majority of the bets coming down on the Cougars. But UCF had two weeks to prep for this game, while Houston is playing for its fifth straight week.
11. Auburn (7-2) – I think it’s time to start the campaign for Gus Malzahn as coach of the year. Granted, he had a stocked cupboard of veteran players at his disposal. But there weren’t many people in the country predicting a run toward to the Top 10 for the Tigers. (And, frankly, it is ridiculous that Auburn is in the Top 10 right now ahead of a team like Oklahoma State or Clemson. Seriously, all an SEC team has to do is wake up and tie its shoes without throwing up on itself and it is in the Top 10.) The public is piling on the Tigers this week in Auburn’s last road game. But they may be looking ahead to their final two games of the season – hosting Georgia and Alabama.
12. Ball State (6-2) – The Cardinals are mammoth 21-point favorites tonight against Central Michigan at home. But you have to think that Ball State may be looking ahead to next week’s date with Northern Illinois. The visiting Chippewas hare had Ball State’s number, going 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games against the Cardinals. Ball State is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games and is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 MAC games.
13. Texas Tech (6-3) – I’m not going to completely give up on the Red Raiders after getting smoked by Oklahoma State last week. I do think that this team might still be a little bit overrated by the public. But that doesn’t mean that there isn’t still some magic going on here. Tech has lost to Kansas State back-to-back years, including a 31-point beatdown last season in Manhattan. But Texas Tech has gone 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, and they have really dominated this series over the past decade. Kansas State has covered four straight – and I’m never in a rush to bet against a Bill Snyder team – but the Wildcats are back on the road after three straight home games, and this is still the same K-State squad that lost to North Dakota State in this year’s opener.
14. Anyone Playing Notre Dame (6-3) – Navy got a little ATS revenge after getting smoked by the Irish in Ireland last year. Now it is Pittsburgh’s attempt to get some revenge. This is the sixth straight year that Notre Dame and Pitt have squared off, and none of the previous five matchups were decided by more than six points. The underdog is 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight meetings, and you know the Panthers will be sky high to host the Golden Domers.
15. Tulane (6-3) – We will find out if Tulane’s bubble burst while blowing that second-half lead to FAU last week. The Green Wave had been riding a four-game winning streak and led 17-7 at the break. But they were dominated in the second half (outscored 27-0), and Tulane has now been outgained in four straight games by an average of 144 yards per game. That is unsustainable. They are 10-point underdogs at Texas-San Antonio this weekend.
Honorable Mention: Ohio (6-2), North Texas (6-2), Duke (6-2),
Robert Ferringo is a lead writer for Doc’s Sport and he is off to a strong start to the season. Robert nailed his 7-Unit NFL Game of the Year last week with Tennessee over St. Louis and banked $1,300 in profit in Week 9. Robert has earned three of four winning football weeks overall and will be back with more this week. Take advantage of our free, no-strings-attached $60 credit to use toward a purchase of Robert’s football selections and get on this big game. CLICK HERE for $60 absolutely free!
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