College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 10/16/2013
Another week, another winner.
It was an ugly week for the Ferringo 15 last week, as it plunged to just 2-7, with two games featuring teams playing against one another. I knew things had been going a little too well, and that is the Catch-22 of the Ferringo 15: our teams have the most value in the country, but eventually the rest of the country will catch up to them and take that value away.
The teams in the Ferringo 15 are hitting at a solid clip so far this season, going 47-38 ATS. Over the past two seasons the teams in our college football betting power rankings have gone 122-81 ATS, which is good for a spectacular 60-percent winning rate. We will see if they can keep up the pace this week.
The Ferringo 15 is my profit-power rankings; a rating of the 15 teams that hold the most value in college football betting at the moment. It is a reflection of past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread in college football betting. As teams play and betting markets adjust, so to does the perceived “value” of the teams on the list. Consider the Ferringo 15 a list of stocks whose values will fluctuate based on how they perform and also how the public’s expectations for them change.
Last year no college football betting system in the country (except maybe the KING System) was a better bet in the last two months than the Ferringo 15. The F-15 turned a profit in eight of the final nine weeks of the regular season, and the teams on this list went an amazing 75-43-1 against the spread. The top six teams on the Ferringo 15 were a staggering 35-11-1 ATS in the last nine weeks of the season.
Here is my 2013 Ferringo 15 College Football Power Rankings (all records are ATS against the closing line):
1. Oregon (6-0) – What’s left to say? The Ducks are a godless killing machine. They are a 38.5-point favorite at home this week against Washington State, and I still can’t help but feel like it isn’t enough points. Oregon is 20-8-2 ATS in its last 30 games and 18-7-3 ATS in their last 28 conference games. The Ducks are also 10-1 ATS following a win of three touchdowns or more, so they respond to blowing one team out by doing the exact same thing to the next opponent.
2. Washington State (5-2) – Mike Leach has Oregon right where he wants them. Leach’s charges got hammered last week by Oregon State and are now on the road for just the second time in six weeks. But Leach has always thrived in the role of massive underdog. Wazzou “only” lost by 25 points against Oregon last year, 15 points in 2011, and 20 points in 2010. So the Cougars are on a 3-0 ATS run in the series.
3. Washington (5-1) – I’m not going to hammer the Huskies for losing to Oregon last week. The main reason is that because the Huskies just lost to Stanford and Oregon – two Top-10 teams – they are essentially being written off and forgotten about. Washington is 5-0 ATS after a loss against the spread, and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. This team has struggled on the road and is 0-4 ATS in its last four trips to Arizona State, though, and they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven against the Sun Devils.
4. Anyone Playing Notre Dame (5-1) – We had a week off from going against the Irish last weekend. Now they have had two weeks to prepare for resurgent USC this week in a battle of disappointing “name” programs. The public loves Notre Dame this week, with over two-thirds of the action coming in on the home team. But the road team has won four straight and seven of 10 in this series, and the underdog has covered three of the last four.
5. Bowling Green (5-2) – The Falcons defense may not strike fear into BCS teams, but it is overwhelming to MAC foes. They are 3-0 straight up in league play, and they have smothered their MAC opponents, giving up an average of just over two touchdowns per game. The Falcons have the weekend off to get over their grueling, hard-fought 21-20 loss at Mississippi State last weekend.
6. Marshall (4-2) – The Thundering Herd survived on the road against Florida Atlantic last week, holding on for a 24-23 win. They now have the week off before a Thursday night trip to Middle Tennessee State.
7. Texas Tech (5-1) – Uncle Kliff’s boys are heating up. But the Red Raiders could be a huge trap bet this week. Over 60 percent of the action is coming in on Texas Tech on the road against West Virginia. But the spread opened at 8.0 and has already come down to 5.5. The sharp money is on the Mountaineers to spring a trap in Morgantown against Kingsbury’s young Raiders.
8. Missouri (5-1) – How do you go on the road and blow out a Top-10 team as nearly a double-digit underdog and LOSE value? When your also lose your starting quarterback. I was the only college football analyst on the Tigers bandwagon this year. But the rest of the country has caught on. But James Franklin is likely out for the rest of the regular season. And with Florida and South Carolina coming to town in back-to-back weeks, the now No. 14 Tigers are really under the gun.
9. Baylor (4-1) – Someone finally held the Bears under 70 points. And I have to say that their value has waned a bit. Consider: they are almost as large of a favorite this week as Oregon is. Baylor has revenge for a loss at Iowa State last year, and they are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall. So maybe they can get ahead of their five-touchdown spread this week.
10. Central Florida (4-1) – The Knights have a chance for a major statement win this Friday night when they head to Kentucky to take on Louisville. This is one of only two games that the host Cardinals have a realistic shot of losing the rest of the way, and Central Florida would love to be a national spoiler. The Knights stared down South Carolina and won at Penn State already this year, so they won’t be intimidated by this moment.
11. Wisconsin (5-0-1) – The Badgers have even flown under my radar this year. But they are unbeaten against the spread and are the best earner in the Big Ten. The Badgers are simply pummeling teams with their running game, averaging nearly 300 yards per game. Add in the nation’s No. 5 defense, and Wisconsin is covering spreads the old fashioned way. The road team is 0-4 ATS in the Illinois series, and Wisconsin is just 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Champagne.
12. Florida Atlantic (6-1) – This Owls team is just tough. They don’t do anything particularly well, besides the nation’s No. 12 pass defense, but they just can’t be knocked out either. Florida Atlantic has this week off before a trip to Auburn to take on an SEC foe. I am projecting that spread to be somewhere around 26.
13. Wyoming (4-2) – Very strange line in the Wyoming game this week. Colorado State is coming off a home loss to San Jose State and, outside of their game at Alabama, hasn’t done anything particularly noteworthy. Wyoming won last week but allowed a backdoor cover. And yet the Cowboys are just seven-point home favorites against the Rams? Something stinks about this week’s line.
14. Maryland (4-2) – The Terps have a whopping 10 players listed as “questionable” on their injury report this week, and they are just decimated right now. The biggest name is obviously quarterback C.J. Brown, who did not play last week due to a concussion. Impressively, the Terps won (but didn’t cover) against Virginia. They are nearly a touchdown favorite against plucky Wake Forest this week in what is a revenge situation for the Deacons. The road team has lost six straight in this series, but Maryland is 8-4 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
15. Houston (5-0) – I can’t ignore the Cougars anymore! They are perfect at the window this year, and they seemed to recover from their post-Kevin Sumlin hangover. Frankly, I didn’t think it would happen. And Houston still isn’t getting any respect: they are 10-point home underdogs against a BYU team fresh off a blowout win against a BCS foe. The Cougars have covered seven straight games, and I am a fool for ignoring them for this long.
Robert Ferringo is a lead writer for Doc’s Sport and he is off to a strong start to the season. Robert exploded for over $2,200 in football profit with his selections last week and is on an amazing 12-3 NFL run. Robert will have a 7-Unit NFL Game of the Year this weekend that you don’t want to miss. Take advantage of our free, no-strings-attached $60 credit to use toward a purchase of Robert’s football selections and get on this big game. CLICK HERE for $60 absolutely free!
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