College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 9/26/2013
It was a monster 9-2 weekend against the spread for the Ferringo 15. Our Top-10 teams went unbeaten, and one of the losses last week came from the Missouri-Indiana game, which featured two of our top teams. That was a big pickup after back-to-back 7-7 weeks and has really given a jolt to our list here.
The F-15 is now 32-22 ATS so far this season, and that is now 10 of 13 winning weeks for teams in my Ferringo 15 College Football Power Rankings dating back to last year. Counting last week’s results, the F-15 teams have gone 107-65-1 ATS the last 13 weeks, and that is a spectacular 62.2 percent success rate. This year the F-15 is 32-22 ATS for a 59.3 winning percentage.
The Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings; a rating of the 15 teams that hold the most value in college football betting at the moment. It is a reflection of past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread in college football betting. As teams play and betting markets adjust, so to does the perceived “value” of the teams on the list. Consider the Ferringo 15 a list of stocks whose values will fluctuate based on how they perform and also how the public’s expectations for them change.
Last year no college football betting system in the country (except maybe the KING System) was a better bet in the last two months than the Ferringo 15. The F-15 turned a profit in eight of the final nine weeks of the regular season, and the teams on this list went an amazing 75-43-1 against the spread. The top six teams on the Ferringo 15 were a staggering 35-11-1 ATS in the last nine weeks of the season.
Here is my 2013 Ferringo 15 College Football Power Rankings (all records are ATS against the closing line):
1. Washington (3-0) – The Huskies have hammered their opponents 94-6 in their newly refurbished stadium. They will see if the magic continues this weekend. The host has won and covered five straight in this series. This game is actually a big revenge game for the Huskies, who were demolished 52-17 last October down in Tucson. The favorite has won four of five in this series. But if you go back further, the underdog has been the play, taking the cash in seven of the last 11 meetings.
2. Wyoming (4-0) – This team has one of the top offenses in the West Coast, and Brett Smith is playing at a very high level right now. I felt like the Wyoming line was short this week. But they are coming off a road thrashing of a top rival and could be due for a letdown. Texas State is 3-1 ATS in its four games this year, and they played well against Texas Tech last week. Wyoming is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 road games and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.
3. Washington State (4-0) – Mike Leach already has one prime Pac-12 scalp this year, taking down USC on the road. Now they get a shot at Top 10 Stanford. The Cardinal is coming off a relatively easy win over Arizona State. But they did get outscored 21-3 to close out the game, and they struggled in their only road game this year, at Army. This isn’t a true home game for Wazzou, however, as this one is being played in Seattle.
4. Arizona (2-1) – It is time for the Wildcats to step up in class as they face their first real test of the season up in Seattle. Arizona has had some success in Washington, winning up there in 2007 and 2004 while playing two tough games in 2011 and 2009. Arizona is actually 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in Washington and 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings overall. But Arizona is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record, and they are facing a Huskies team on a 13-3 ATS rush.
5. Anyone Playing Notre Dame (4-0) – As I have said before, we’re going to be feasting of Notre Dame’s National Championship Game appearance for at least the next four years. The Irish have no value for bettors, but I’m sure people have been pouring money into them. They host Oklahoma this week, and it is actually a revenge spot for the Sooners. Notre Dame outrushed Oklahoma 215-15 in that game, and I’m sure OU is dedicated to not get pushed around like that again this weekend.
6. Bowling Green (3-1) – The Falcons are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with Akron, and Bowling Green is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10. However, only two meetings since 2000 (eight games) have been decided by more than two touchdowns. Something has clicked for Akron the last few weeks. They beat James Madison, should’ve beaten Michigan at The Big House, and went to the wire with a good Lafayette team. The Zips should be up for their MAC opener, and I expect a decent performance.
7. Oregon (3-0) – The Ducks can name their own score this weekend against a terrible Cal team. The Golden Bears gave up 52 to Ohio State and 44 to Northwestern, so you know the Ducks are going to try to top those numbers. Oregon hung 59 on Tennessee and 59 at Virginia, and both of those teams are better than this Cal group. Also, Oregon may have some motivation because of the fact that they are not No. 1 right now, stuck behind Alabama. Oregon won 59-17 on the road last year against a 31-poitn line and is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings. I smell another bludgeoning.
8. Oklahoma State (2-1) – Like Oregon, the Cowboys are on this list because they are just absolutely lighting people up. And you have to know that Mike Gundy is licking his chops at the possibility of going to Morgantown and laying the wood to former protégé Dana Holgorsen. West Virginia just lost 37-0 to Maryland, and now they welcome this powerful Cowboys squad. Oklahoma State won 55-34 at home last year. They are probably equal to last year’s team, while the Mountaineers are considerably worse.
9. Missouri (2-1) – Missouri is 3-0 straight up and is just a field goal away from being 3-0 ATS as well. They have another mid-major opponent this week with Arkansas State coming to Columbia before opening with two SEC road games. Arkansas State was just a 10.5-point underdog at Auburn, and they are 20.5-point dogs this week, so Missouri is getting plenty of respect. But Arkansas State also lost by 29 to their former coach, now at Auburn, so we’ll see if Missouri can surpass Auburn’s performance as well as expectations. The Tigers are just 3-8-1 ATS following a win.
10. Marshall (3-1) – So close. Marshall should’ve beaten Virginia Tech last week but lost a heartbreaker, 29-21, in overtime. They now have a week off. So they will either spend the extra time recovering and readying for a test from Texas-San Antonio (4-0 ATS) next weekend, or the Thundering Herd will simply stew for an extra week, and that near-miss will hold them back. This is where coaching comes into play.
11. Ohio (3-1) – The Bobcats also have a bye before a trip to in-state rival Akron next week. Ohio is just No. 77 on offense and No. 88 on defense, so they have plenty to work on with this extra time.
12. Georgia Tech (3-0) – It was a garbage cover for the Yellow Jackets last week against North Carolina. (Yes, I am bitter because I had money on the Tar Heels.) But there is just no denying that this Jackets team is a legit player in the ACC. Georgia Tech is hosting Virginia Tech this Thursday night, and they have lost to the Hokies three straight seasons. Georgia Tech is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings – they lost in OT in last year’s opener – but the underdog is 7-3 ATS in this series.
13. Central Florida (3-0) – I actually had to move the Golden Knights down a bit. They are only touchdown underdogs at home to SEC power South Carolina this weekend. I have spoken at length about the fact that the SEC is amazingly overrated this year. But USC is still a legit Top-15 team, and they have played three games against top competition. Central Florida is coming off an upset win at Penn State. Good for them. But Penn State is at best a Top-50 team, not Top 15. And the Golden Knights are losing value because they are on a 4-0 ATS run and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11. I said they are playing big-boy football. We’ll see how they fare against some men.
14. Maryland (4-0) – The Terps have been on a revenge tour over the last few weeks, taking down Connecticut and West Virginia in two very emotional games. They get a well-deserved week off and have extra time to prepare for a harrowing trip down to Tallahassee to take on Florida State next weekend.
15. Texas Tech (4-0) – It was a tough call for this final spot. Texas-San Antonio deserves props for the way they navigated their brutal nonconference slate. Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS. Florida State and Baylor are just slaughtering people. But if I am gauging long-term value, I am going with Kliff Kingsbury’s crew. They have a week off before bringing the No. 4 passing attack in college football to Kansas.
Honorable Mention: Houston (3-0); Louisville (3-1); Florida State (3-0), Wisconsin (4-0), Baylor (3-0); Ohio State (3-1); Minnesota (3-1), Texas-San Antonio (4-0); Toledo (3-0-1); Ball State (3-1); UCLA (3-0).
Robert Ferringo is a lead writer for Doc’s Sports and a member of the Football Writer’s Association of American. He has earned nearly $11,000 in profit for his clients over the last 16 football months. This week Robert will release selections from his incredible KING College Football Betting System. (Learn more HERE.) He also has a 7-UNIT COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME OF THE YEAR THIS WEEKEND! We are so confident that you will be amazed by this moneymaking system we are going to give you a free, no-strings-attached $60 credit to use toward a purchase of Robert’s football selections. CLICK HERE for $60 absolutely free!
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