College Football Power Rankings: Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 9/18/2013
Weeks 2-4 are generally the lowest producing weeks of the year for the Ferringo 15, and last week was our second straight 7-7 showing against the spread. That means that our numbers are approaching Salvation Army territory – non-profit – as the F-15 sits at 23-20 ATS on the season. However, dating back to last year that is now 9 of 12 winning weeks for the teams listed in my Ferringo 15 College Football Power Rankings.
The Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings; a rating of the 15 teams that hold the most value in college football betting at the moment. It is a reflection of past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread in college football betting. As teams play and betting markets adjust, so to does the perceived “value” of the teams on the list. Consider the Ferringo 15 a list of stocks whose values will fluctuate based on how they perform and also how the public’s expectations for them change.
Last year no college football betting system in the country (except maybe the KING System) was a better bet in the last two months than the Ferringo 15. The F-15 turned a profit in eight of the final nine weeks of the regular season, and the teams on this list went an amazing 75-43-1 against the spread. The top six teams on the Ferringo 15 were a staggering 35-11-1 ATS in the last nine weeks of the season.
Add in last week’s results, and the F-15 teams have gone 98-63-1 ATS the last 12 weeks. That is a 61.9 percent success rate. This year the F-15 is 23-20.
With that in mind, here is my 2013 Ferringo 15 College Football Rankings (all records are ATS against the closing line):
1. Arizona (2-1) –The Wildcats won and nearly covered an inflated line against a feisty Texas-San Antonio team (which has been in our Honorable Mentions for the last two weeks). The Wildcats have a bye this week, and they need to prepare for a season-defining stretch. They play at Washington and at USC in the next week weeks, and four of their next five games are on the road. However, they should be favored in their home game against Utah on Oct. 19 and then could be road favorites at Colorado and at Cal.
2. Washington (2-0) –The Huskies spread against Illinois closed at 10.5 at a lot of books, so they may have lost some bettors some money last week. But the line was 9.5 for the majority of the week, so I am giving them the ‘W’. Washington is a mammoth favorite this week against lowly Idaho State, and the Huskies can pretty much name their own score. But with Arizona, Stanford and Oregon on deck, I fully expect Steve Sarkisian to pull back this week and to get the starters some rest heading into their toughest Pac-12 stretch of the season.
3. Wyoming (3-0) –Brett Smith should start this week as the Cowboys open their conference calendar with a trip to Air Force. Smith has been nursing an ankle injury, but reports are that he will be good to go come game time. Wyoming has covered four straight against the Falcons, and they are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Cowboys are also 6-1 ATS in their last seven at Air Force, and Wyoming is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 conference games. The Cowboys are getting respect as a small (-4.5) road favorite this week, but the underdog has been the play in this series recently (7-1 ATS).
4. Washington State (3-0) –Mike Leach has his system in place and is now burning the books in the Great Midwest. The Cougars are still overmatched from a talent perspective. But Leach has a group of guys that are buying into his system. Wazzou hung 48 on Southern Utah last week in a letdown spot after their big win over USC. The books have noticed, and now the Cougars are 31.5-point favorites against Idaho. The Vandals are 0-3 and were blasted by 34 points at North Texas and by 32 at Wyoming. So clearly the books are still selling Leach’s crew short by posting a line that suggests that the Cougars are no better than the Cowboys.
5. Anyone Playing Notre Dame (3-0) – The Irish never threatened to cover the 17-point line against Purdue last week, and they were losing 17-10 heading into the fourth quarter. This is a very mediocre Notre Dame team. But the glow of last year’s fluke national title appearance is still so fresh in people’s minds that they can’t see how suspect this Irish team is. Notre Dame has four straight marquee home games, facing Michigan State, Oklahoma, Arizona State and USC over the next month. There is absolutely no way they are going to cover more than two spreads there. The Irish are 3-0 ATS in their last three against Sparty. But this has been a series dominated by the road team (11-2 ATS), and Michigan State is 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to South Bend.
6. Bowling Green (2-1) –I am not going to cream Bowling Green for getting blown out by a very motivated Indiana team. That game was competitive for the first half and simply got away form the Falcons in the second. This week Bowling Green will get to take some of its frustrations out on Murray State, which has already been thrashed 58-14 by Missouri.
7. Oklahoma State (2-1) –Sports Illustrated’s scam/expose/hit piece on the Oklahoma State program was national news last week. I gladly took the Cowboys last weekend in thinking they would use a game against lowly Lamar to make a statement. Sure enough, they scored 52 points in the first three quarters, and the outcome was never in doubt. Oklahoma State is off this week, but I am sure the SI piece will be fuel for this team all season long.
8. Oregon (3-0) –I am an idiot. Why haven’t we simply been betting on Oregon every week? All they do is thrash people. The Ducks are 35-21 ATS since the November of 2008, and they are a healthy 10-1 ATS in their last 11 lined games. Oregon is idle this week and host hapless Cal next Saturday.
9. Central Florida (3-0) – I told you last week that Central Florida was playing big-boy football, and that is exactly what they played in Happy Valley last week. There was nothing fluky about UCF’s upset of Penn State as the Golden Knights took a commanding 28-10 lead midway through the third quarter. The Knights have a much-needed week off to prepare for an even bigger test next week when they host South Carolina.
10. Missouri (1-1) – This week’s game at Indiana is a big one for the Tigers. Gary Pinkel’s team had two weeks to prepare for their first road game of the season, and if the Tigers are going to be more than a walk-through in the SEC this year they need to win this game. Pinkel won’t shy away from the fast pace the Hoosiers employ, and I don’t think there is any doubt that this week’s game will be a shootout. Missouri is just 9-22 straight up in road openers and a pathetic 0-10 SU on the road against Big Ten teams.
11. Marshall (2-1) –The Thundering Herd need to make a quick pivot after their road loss against Ohio last week. Marshall is on the road to take on Virginia Tech this week in Blacksburg. The market is responding to the Hokies as this spread has shot up to Virginia Tech -9.5 after an open at -7.0. Marshall lost by 20 while hosting the Hokies back in 2011, but this is the weakest Tech team we’ve seen in some time. Still, Marshall is just 17-35-3 ATS in its last 55 road games, and they have not fared all that well against BCS opponents in recent years.
12. Ohio (2-1) –Look who’s back! Ohio has rebounded nicely from its 49-7 defeat at the hands of Louisville to open the season. The Bobcats won tight games against North Texas and Marshall the past two weeks and have some momentum heading into conference play. But first they need to dispatch Austin Peay this weekend, something that should be little problem for Tyler Tettleton and Co. For those looking to bet on this gross matchup, beware: Austin Peay is 2-0 ATS this year in losses at Vanderbilt and Tennessee.
13. Georgia Tech (2-0) – People just keep sleeping on the Yellowjackets. They mauled Duke on the road last week but are still less than a touchdown favorite against North Carolina this Saturday. Paul Johnson’s crew is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four meetings with the Tar Heels, including a dominating 68-50 win last season in one of the craziest games I’ve ever seen. Tech scored 30 points – 30! – in the third quarter alone. The score was 58-50 just 10 seconds into the fourth quarter before Tech closed out the scoring.
14. Indiana (2-1) –For all the talk about Indiana’s offense, it was the defense that really excelled against Bowling Green. Indiana gave up just three points (BG also scored on a blocked punt), and they were swarming. This team fell flat after its 70-point outburst in the season-opening win, losing to Navy as a healthy favorite. We will see if Kevin Wilson’s squad can avoid a similar letdown this week. I am sure that hosting an SEC foe will get the blood flowing for the Hoosiers.
15. Northwestern (2-1) –The Wildcats couldn’t earn the cash against Western Michigan last week. But even though I thought about it all week, I’m not going to boot them out of the F-15 in favor of Texas Tech. With a bye on deck, I expect a strong showing against Maine this weekend, and Pat Fitzgerald has gone 3-1 ATS in his last four efforts against FCS teams. Northwestern has Ohio State after the bye, so I am sure Fitzgerald wants to put some good work in this weekend.
Honorable Mention: Maryland, Baylor, Texas Tech, UT-San Antonio, Ball State
Robert Ferringo is a lead writer for Doc’s Sports and a member of the Football Writer’s Association of American. He has earned nearly $11,000 in profit for his clients over the last 16 football months. This week Robert will release selections from his incredible KING College Football Betting System. (Learn more HERE.)He is 10-6 for over $1,200 in profit with these KING System plays and will have more moneymakers this week. We are so confident that you will be amazed by this moneymaking system we are going to give you a free, no-strings-attached $60 credit to use toward a purchase of Robert’s football selections. CLICK HERE for $60 absolutely free!
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